I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_next_20/2016/09/ralph_nader_and_the_tragedy_of_voter_as_consumer_politics.html

Michelle Goldberg bit on Nader 2000 helping encourage voter-as-consumer atomization

and she will always love you xp

How to Tell If You’re a Jerk: If you think everyone around you is terrible, the joke may be on you.

Here’s something you probably didn’t do this morning: Look in the mirror and ask, am I a jerk? It seems like a reasonable question. There are, presumably, genuine jerks in the world. And many of those jerks, presumably, have a pretty high moral opinion of themselves [...] They don’t think of themselves as jerks, because jerk self-knowledge is hard to come by.

http://nautil.us/issue/40/learning/how-to-tell-if-youre-a-jerk offered without comment

i will vote for Dolly

Dollywood is also far more gay than I think most of its senior attendees would realize.

http://i.imgur.com/akcdoWy.jpg

lol Ben Harper is playing Friday at my local Hillary campaign office

538 think hillary is more likely to win now than she was after the RNC. all the prediction places agree on this afaict.

loool at dude behind Trump

never been to dollywood, as noted it's pretty far off. would love to go tho'!

(little girls _are_ america in those pictures naturally)

When pressed on whether he continues to believe the long-refuted claim that President Barack Obama is not a US citizen and was not born in Hawaii, Trump replied, "I’ll answer that question at the right time. I just don’t want to answer it yet.”

never. apologize. ever.

they could always use more boobs in the race

I want this election to go on for six more months just so we have time to get through all the amazing thread titles

xp he wants to answer that in the debate when he's get maximum attention/praise for saying obama is a natural born citizen. he doesn't care if it's true or not. he just wants to prolong/maximize the attention.

they could always use more boobs in the race

Dolly is wrong, for she hasn't seen Trump naked. Only his doctor has.

one other polling remark: we just went through the abrupt change when polling becomes a much more reliable prediction of the election (they're on average right within like 8 points until the end of august, and then jump to within 3-4 in september, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/upshot/were-about-to-enter-a-period-of-polling-volatility.html).

so while this may feel like a swing or a change due to events, it's just as, if not more easily explained as "it was always fairly tight, but now we're measuring more accurately"

aren't the polls also switching from 'registered voters' to 'likely voters'?

also that for sure. if both screens are modeled correctly then that should make no difference, but if they screw up correcting for one or the other screen then that would likely result in apparent jump in republican support.

whether the jump is from or to the right answer is another question, but the point is it doesn't necessarily imply a shift in the race.

https://humanizingthevacuum.wordpress.com/2016/09/16/in-todays-round-of-donald-trump-lies/

pretty good article: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/9/15/1570341/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2016-forecast-Polling-day-from-hell-has-little-effect-on-the-bottom-line

on PEC, meanwhile, people are flipping out because two days after Sam said it was ridiculous how people were freaking out, his Meta-Margin went down to 2.5%, and the random drift to 77%, Bayesian to 86%.

it is kind of ridiculous, in a way, because we fucking did this same shit in 2012 (freak out)

I've been doing it since 2008, youngsters.

Somehow in 2004 I felt Kerry was gonna lose the whole time, so I never had that "oh no it's getting away from us" moment.

Kerry was never ahead iirc. Sorta like trump.

Trump was ahead for a few days right after the Republican convention, I think.

Nope

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-no-post-convention-bounce-donald-trump-n616426

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at an aggregate of polls?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

Even in the link you posted yourself:

Trump, however, now leads Clinton by 2 points (41 to 39 percent) in a four-way general election matchup with Libertarian Gary Johnson (10 points) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (5 points). This is up 1 point from last week.

man that's the first Daily Kos article I've read in years.

This was in that kos article and I thought it was helpful too

https://blog.electiontracking.surveymonkey.com/2016/09/14/2016-vote-and-party-id-the-same-data-tell-two-stories/

Happier times:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/

this is amazing

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CscPbYsWYAEFms7.jpg:large

i wonder how much of trump's support is abused people who need an abuser.

wow. thank goodness trump was around to bring the ugly incident to its conclusion, lol

Bizarre enough in and of itself; doubly so when combined with what he said yesterday.

Trump refused to say whether he believes Obama was born in Hawaii.

“I’ll answer that question at the right time,” Trump said. “I just don’t want to answer it yet.”

Yes a 2 pt lead in a 4-way gen election nat'l matchup ie a thing that never happens and has no relevance

Xxp

it's sad he was a closer

So birtherism is "vicious and conniving"... but not when Trump does it?

25 million jobs!

well don't forget, trump believes the actual unemployment rate is above 40%

Something something labor force participation but tbh that's in permanent decline and it's Good Actually™

“When offered a choice between two politically intolerable alternatives,” accord­ing to Alasdair MacIntyre, "it is important to choose neither. And when that choice is presented in rival arguments and debates that exclude from public consideration any other set of possibilities, it becomes a duty to withdraw from those arguments and debates, so as to resist the imposition of this false choice by those who have arrogated to themselves the power of framing the alternatives."

http://commonknowledge.dukejournals.org/content/15/3/340.full.pdf

This is a Trump tweet from 2013: "How amazing, the State Health Director who verified copies of Obama’s “birth certificate” died in plane crash today. All others lived"

MediaMatters on the many times Trump raised the birther issue after he apparently 'brought closure' to it in 2011: http://mediamatters.org/research/2016/09/16/trump-campaign-statement-clashes-recent-birther-claims-made-trump-and-surrogates-media/213133

'Was it a birth certificate? You tell me. Some people say that was not his birth certificate. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. I’m saying I don’t know. Nobody knows.' etc.

i wonder how much of trump's support is abused people who need an abuser.

― savvinesslessness (map)

not seeing a shortage of abusers right now tbh

as long as they remain convinced that it's the "other" who are the ones being abused more

being *going to be

Fuck that statement for reals. That is some of their most offensive shit to date imo

And this fucking asshole will not get called out on it of course

Yes a 2 pt lead in a 4-way gen election nat'l matchup ie a thing that never happens and has no relevance

Whether it's relevant or not is not the same question as whether it happened or not. I just find it weird that you're adamant that Trump has never led. The RCP tracking poll had him ahead during the same window that Nate Silver did (July 25-29, right after the Republican convention):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

It's not important. Which is basically the point--conceding that Trump was indeed ahead for two or three days two months ago doesn't really hurt Clinton's chances in November.

of all the amazing things about that trump campaign statement, my favourite is that senior communications adviser jason miller doesn't understand how inverted commas and paragraphs work together

also i read 'inarguably donald j trump is a closer' as 'is a loser' the first time