I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

aren't the polls also switching from 'registered voters' to 'likely voters'?

also that for sure. if both screens are modeled correctly then that should make no difference, but if they screw up correcting for one or the other screen then that would likely result in apparent jump in republican support.

whether the jump is from or to the right answer is another question, but the point is it doesn't necessarily imply a shift in the race.

https://humanizingthevacuum.wordpress.com/2016/09/16/in-todays-round-of-donald-trump-lies/

pretty good article: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/9/15/1570341/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2016-forecast-Polling-day-from-hell-has-little-effect-on-the-bottom-line

on PEC, meanwhile, people are flipping out because two days after Sam said it was ridiculous how people were freaking out, his Meta-Margin went down to 2.5%, and the random drift to 77%, Bayesian to 86%.

it is kind of ridiculous, in a way, because we fucking did this same shit in 2012 (freak out)

I've been doing it since 2008, youngsters.

Somehow in 2004 I felt Kerry was gonna lose the whole time, so I never had that "oh no it's getting away from us" moment.

Kerry was never ahead iirc. Sorta like trump.

Trump was ahead for a few days right after the Republican convention, I think.

Nope

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-no-post-convention-bounce-donald-trump-n616426

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at an aggregate of polls?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

Even in the link you posted yourself:

Trump, however, now leads Clinton by 2 points (41 to 39 percent) in a four-way general election matchup with Libertarian Gary Johnson (10 points) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (5 points). This is up 1 point from last week.

man that's the first Daily Kos article I've read in years.

This was in that kos article and I thought it was helpful too

https://blog.electiontracking.surveymonkey.com/2016/09/14/2016-vote-and-party-id-the-same-data-tell-two-stories/

Happier times:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/

this is amazing

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CscPbYsWYAEFms7.jpg:large

i wonder how much of trump's support is abused people who need an abuser.

wow. thank goodness trump was around to bring the ugly incident to its conclusion, lol

Bizarre enough in and of itself; doubly so when combined with what he said yesterday.

Trump refused to say whether he believes Obama was born in Hawaii.

“I’ll answer that question at the right time,” Trump said. “I just don’t want to answer it yet.”

Yes a 2 pt lead in a 4-way gen election nat'l matchup ie a thing that never happens and has no relevance

Xxp

it's sad he was a closer

So birtherism is "vicious and conniving"... but not when Trump does it?

25 million jobs!

well don't forget, trump believes the actual unemployment rate is above 40%

Something something labor force participation but tbh that's in permanent decline and it's Good Actually™

“When offered a choice between two politically intolerable alternatives,” accord­ing to Alasdair MacIntyre, "it is important to choose neither. And when that choice is presented in rival arguments and debates that exclude from public consideration any other set of possibilities, it becomes a duty to withdraw from those arguments and debates, so as to resist the imposition of this false choice by those who have arrogated to themselves the power of framing the alternatives."

http://commonknowledge.dukejournals.org/content/15/3/340.full.pdf

This is a Trump tweet from 2013: "How amazing, the State Health Director who verified copies of Obama’s “birth certificate” died in plane crash today. All others lived"

MediaMatters on the many times Trump raised the birther issue after he apparently 'brought closure' to it in 2011: http://mediamatters.org/research/2016/09/16/trump-campaign-statement-clashes-recent-birther-claims-made-trump-and-surrogates-media/213133

'Was it a birth certificate? You tell me. Some people say that was not his birth certificate. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. I’m saying I don’t know. Nobody knows.' etc.

i wonder how much of trump's support is abused people who need an abuser.

― savvinesslessness (map)

not seeing a shortage of abusers right now tbh

as long as they remain convinced that it's the "other" who are the ones being abused more

being *going to be

Fuck that statement for reals. That is some of their most offensive shit to date imo

And this fucking asshole will not get called out on it of course

Yes a 2 pt lead in a 4-way gen election nat'l matchup ie a thing that never happens and has no relevance

Whether it's relevant or not is not the same question as whether it happened or not. I just find it weird that you're adamant that Trump has never led. The RCP tracking poll had him ahead during the same window that Nate Silver did (July 25-29, right after the Republican convention):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

It's not important. Which is basically the point--conceding that Trump was indeed ahead for two or three days two months ago doesn't really hurt Clinton's chances in November.

of all the amazing things about that trump campaign statement, my favourite is that senior communications adviser jason miller doesn't understand how inverted commas and paragraphs work together

also i read 'inarguably donald j trump is a closer' as 'is a loser' the first time

thanks for bring this to a conclusion in 2011

In a August 2013 interview with ABC News, Trump said: "Was it a birth certificate? You tell me. Some people say that was not his birth certificate. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. I'm saying I don't know. Nobody knows."
And in December 2013, Trump even implied that a Hawaii official who had vouched for the birth certificate's authenticity had been murdered. "How amazing, the State Health Director who verified copies of Obama’s 'birth certificate' died in plane crash today. All others lived,"

this pic pretty much sums up the election

http://i.imgur.com/luzV2z3.jpg

im so tired of this piece of shit

Seriously. He's like a human oil spill. He ruins everything and it's going to take forever to clean up his mess.

https://twitter.com/InesdLC/status/776410526410797057/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsZdBwmXEAANSBT.jpg

Ines de La Cuietaraverified account ‏@InesdLC
Art inside the Trump/Pence HQ at Trump Tower in NYC

v important to note the actual wall there between USA & Mexicp

This is what's going to be painted on the Mexico side.

on the side of the taco bowl

Now that he's half-assed (like a full asshole) semi-conceded Obama was born in the USA, maybe he'll suggest building a wall between America and Hawaii.

@realDonaldTrump
Attention all hackers: You are hacking everything else so please hack Obama's college records (destroyed?) and check "place of birth"
3:06 AM - 6 Sep 2014

He really is the greatest used cars salesman from NJ that ever lived at this point.

The eagle is nimbly dodging a barrage of throwing stars.

i mean that statement they put up is just all lies! it's really insane how this is so normal now.

The double speak is truly jaw-dropping. Pence can be wrong on Iraq, but not Clinton. I am not a racist, but she is a bigot. I brought this horrible birther shit to a conclusion by bringing it up.