I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

I dunno with a projected audience of 100 million and a record # of undecideds I kinda feel like this one may in fact matter

I can't wait to see which candidate is tougher! Who will be the true American Ninja Warrior!

I dunno with a projected audience of 100 million and a record # of undecideds I kinda feel like this one may in fact matter

― frogbs, M

I love how the media and advertisers has created the conditions whereby the debate will get judged. If they say 100 million will watch, then it must be true!

enh. whatever.

538 now projecting this as a coinflip

why the fuck is this even happening, because Clinton took a tumble on 9/11?

I'm trying not to panic but there's something that feels inevitable about all this. I seriously wake up in a panic thinking Donald fucking Trump is going to be the next president and that a major economic crash may wind up as the best-case scenario

tbf we're probably going to get a major economic crash no matter what happens

I'm just going to keep this in an open notepad file so I can c+p when necessary:

Donald Trump will never be president of the United States.

Mainly because he's going to rip that stupid bible in half while being sworn in and declare himself Emperor Don.

welp, hope you're right

Kneel before Don

Don't those related tweets indicate perhaps criminal tax evasion, albeit mitigated by his "ignorance *is* a defense" note? That is, perhaps Trump Inc. was truly up to illegal stuff, but he was following the advice of council, which perhaps led him astray?

fwiw this is how Martha Stewart ended up in jail

And I'll bet dollars to donuts that she has (or had) more money than Trump. Look out, Donnie!

All hosts of The Apprentice end up in jail

did martha stewart ever host??? she would be amazing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice:_Martha_Stewart

I had a disturbing flashback over the weekend to the Kerry/Bush debate. Kerry did a decent job of spelling out the poor justification and lack of international backing for the continued war on terror, followed by Bush taking a second, then quipping "you forgot Poland!"

for the life of me I can't remember a single thing Kerry said but I'll probably remember "you forgot Poland!" until the day I die

not sure I have the heart to watch these Clinton/Trump debates

"There is so much to know and so much to learn and so much diplomacy and kindness and introspection that goes with that kind of job," Stewart told CNNMoney during a luncheon for Andrea Bocelli's foundation Sunday. "And it does not exist in the world of Donald Trump."

For Stewart, the stakes are high and the only choice is Hillary Clinton.

"This is the most important election of the last hundred years," she said. "We have to be very certain that we elect a person who has experience, knowledge, a base of education in the world of world politics as well as domestic politics and so obviously I'm voting for Hillary Clinton. And we just can't have a country run by someone who is totally unprepared for what comes.

Stewart, 75, had a very public falling out with Trump in 2006, after he called out her NBC "Apprentice" spinoff show, "The Apprentice: Martha Stewart," for low ratings. Trump created and executive produced the show along with Mark Burnett.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Real-estate mogul Donald Trump and domestic diva Martha Stewart fired back at each other in a prime-time-worthy battle of words.
"If I'd had my druthers, there would have been only one 'Apprentice' on the air at one time," Stewart recently told Newsweek magazine.

"The Apprentice: Martha Stewart," NBC's much-hyped new version of the popular reality show launched with Donald Trump, suffered lackluster ratings.

In an interview, she said that having both versions of "The Apprentice" air during the same season was "unfair" but added that "Donald really wanted to stay on."
Stewart said that she was supposed to start out her new show by firing Trump, so that hers would be the only version of "The Apprentice" left on the air.
Trump shot back in a published letter to Stewart on Tuesday, calling her a liar. "Essentially, you made this firing up just as you made up your sell order of ImClone," he wrote. Stewart was convicted of lying about her sale of ImClone Systems Inc. (Research) stock and served five months in prison.

Trump also wrote: "Your performance was terrible in that the show lacked mood, temperament and just about everything a show needs for success."
"I knew it would fail as soon as I first saw it -- and your low ratings bore me out."

In a statement issued late Tuesday, Stewart said Trump's "letter is so mean-spirited and reckless that I almost can't believe my longtime friend Donald Trump wrote it."

tbf I'd vote for Martha Stewart for president any day over Trump, but she's sadly ineligible for the presidency

Martha Stewart would at least recognize that she should study for the job.

it takes absolutely no imagination to think about Trump sabotaging a spinoff, even one that he was executive producing, because he can't even share a little bit of the spotlight

has he talked over Pence at events or grabbed his microphone?

I thought he talked over Pence as he was trying to introduce him as his running mate?

lol

he totally did

What are the odds that he replaces Pence at least once before this thing's over?

Yeah, that's about right - it's largely theatre (not entirely - Hillary Clinton couldn't come out and say the same kind of word salad that Trump does) but there are a lot of people whose minds might be changed by it. It's meaningful meaning there's a wide range of outcomes depending on how it goes. Now the vice-presidents' debate - that's meaningless.

Also as per discussion last Friday, it's not just that there's a lot of undecideds, it's that being undecided in this election is hard for a lot of us to understand.

Also I think he can't replace Pence - if the position was vacated, the party would get to choose the successor.

I had an argument w/a relative who said that Pence "automatically" became the nominee should Trump die or step down. I had to remind her that he isn't president yet: Pence was the party's vote for vice president, not president; that's why delegates vote prez and vice prez separately.

I can understand being undecided on how to vomit on this spectacularly wretched 'choice.'

The audience the Clintonistas are strategizing to reach are those who are 'paying attention for the first time' tonight. I waver on such folks between cf Gene Wilder re "morons," and Can You Blame Them?

I got my ballot over the weekend; I'm overseas so I dunno : does this mean that early voting is opening nationwide?

if you got a ballot, it means you're committing voter fraud

yep, I'm voting today

Y E S

plouffe otm imo https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.c04c99bfeaa0

Early voting dates depend on the district in which you're registered and how they handle voting.

Marshall:

Further beneath these numbers we see a persistent trend almost everywhere: Clinton does better in a head to head race than in a multiple candidate race where Johnson and Stein are added. That's great for Clinton, until you consider that in most but not all states there are four candidates on the ballot. You can look at this in two different ways. Pessimistically her coalition is fragmented, allowing Trump to be competitive or tied with number in the low or mid-40s. That suggests the possibility of a LaPage scenario (after Maine's governor) where you have a widely reviled buffoon who is elected against a divided opposition. More optimistically, third party numbers tend to decline in the final weeks of the campaign. If that happens, it should drive Clinton's numbers up relative to Trump.

An additional thing to consider is that in recent cycles the out-party usually drives an advantage from the first debate but generally isn't able to hold that advantage through election day. In this case, Trump is the out-party. But there are so many wildcards going into this debate, I'd be slightly less confident that history is any guide. It is worth remembering that Mitt Romney moved into a tiny lead after the first presidential debate in 2012 and held that until the last week of October. The PollTracker Average had Obama moving back into a minuscule lead on October 25th. On election day he was .7 percentage points ahead of Romney. In the event, he significantly outperformed that average, beating Romney by a 3.9 percentage point margin.

WaPo:

Excuses that Trump and his supporters have given for not releasing tax returns

Trump: “I’m being audited … so I can’t.” (See next section.) (Repeatedly since February)
Trump: “There’s nothing to learn from them.” (Fact checkers say this is false.) (February, February, May, May)
Trump: “Mitt Romney looked like a fool when he delayed and delayed and delayed and … didn’t file until a month and a half before the election and it cost him big league.” (February, July)
Trump: His tax rate is “none of your business.” (May)
Paul Manafort, former campaign chairman: American people “wouldn’t understand them.” (May)
Manafort: The only people who want them “are the people who want to defeat him.” (May)
Trump: “I don’t think anybody cares,” which is false. (May, September)
Eric Trump, son: Would be “foolish” to release; “you would have a bunch of people who know nothing about taxes trying to look through and trying to come up with assumptions on things that they know nothing about.” (August)
Mike Pence, vice-presidential nominee who released his tax returns: They’re a “distraction.” (September)
Donald Trump Jr.: “Would detract from (his dad’s) main message” (September)
Kellyanne Conway, campaign manager: “I just can’t find where this is a burning issue to most of the Americans.” (September) (In April, before joining his campaign, Conway said, “Donald Trump’s tax returns aren’t … transparent” and called for their release.)
Jeffrey Lord, commentator: Tax returns are “a political gimmick, a gotcha … Political opponents are going to go through there and look to make issues out of things.” (September)
Trump Jr.: “There’s a lot in a 12,000-page tax return that wouldn’t make sense to open up” (September)

Why IRS audits would not prevent Trump from releasing his tax returns

Trump’s tax attorneys said in March that his returns since 2009 were being audited. The IRS said nothing, including an audit, “prevents individuals from sharing their own tax information.”
His tax attorneys said returns from 2002 to 2008 are no longer being audited. Trump said he will still not release those returns because “they’re all linked.”
President Richard Nixon released his tax returns while under audit.
All major presidential nominees of the past 40 years have released their tax returns.
Trump can delay the completion of his audits.

What we would learn from Trump’s tax returns

How much (or how little) money he makes
How much (or how little) he gives to charity
How much (or how little) he pays in taxes
How much (or how little) money he keeps in foreign accounts (including in Russia)
(For an example, see the first four pages of Hillary Clinton’s 2015 tax returns)

Meanwhile, where is the purported Fahrenthold revelation?

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus further blurred this surreal election year’s line between reality and reality TV on Monday, suggesting that Donald Trump’s tenure as a host on “The Apprentice” prepared him to face off against Hillary Clinton in the first presidential debate.

CNN’s Wolf Blitzer asked Priebus how Trump had prepared for Monday night’s face-off at Hofstra University in Long Island.

“Studying, preparing, going through hypotheticals and what scenarios might come up, but he's very comfortable,” the RNC chair replied. “He did a great job in our primary debates. He's also been through, what, 14 seasons, season finales. He will be prepared. He's always showed up for the big dance, and he will be prepared and he'll be ready to go tonight.”

don't forget his high pressure WWE appearances

I'm trying not to panic but there's something that feels inevitable about all this. I seriously wake up in a panic thinking Donald fucking Trump is going to be the next president and that a major economic crash may wind up as the best-case scenario

― frogbs, Monday, September 26, 2016 9:26 AM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

What will actually happen if he gets elected. God... years ago Tim Heidecker's hacky comedian character fantasized about him being sworn in and it was hilarious and ridiculous without there being a larger joke attached to it but now it's just going to be this fucked up thing that future civilizations read about in books about the collapse of the USA and history teachers will have to answer "how were people back then so stupid?" or "how did people actually believe any of the semi-coherent things he said?" "how was his idiocy not obvious at the time? It looks like they had plenty of information."

Xp acc to Twitter it's being delayed by editors

So if (god forbid) HRC loses this thing, is the media going to point to the "Deplorable" remark as the thing that ultimately sank her?

even if president trump is prevented from fulfilling his most egregious policies + wishes i think an economic crash w/ his election would be inevitable just bc he's promised to not pay back lenders in full which would certainly downgrade US credit I'd think substantially.

the emails surely? xp

That and the unstinting opposition of Dr. Morbius.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.5b980651e403

I've never seen an episode of The Apprentice (of which there are apparently many episodes) but it looks like each season had significantly fewer viewers. I'm guessing interest in Trump as a political figure has to be dropping off accordingly?

Is the state of the union address like a season finale, not sure here

i know she's rich and mega-powerful and an inherently evil politician yadda yadda but jeez, if this isn't enough to make you feel bad for her
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/is-she-likable-enough/2016/09/23/5c8fd252-80e0-11e6-a52d-9a865a0ed0d4_story.html

Clinton’s caution stems in part from her conclusion that the public would believe almost anything derogatory about her, friends and aides agreed. As first lady, according to a close friend, Clinton was on a small plane with a staffer who was reading aloud a magazine story that repeated an accusation that Clinton had had sex with a colleague.

Clinton’s eyes filled with tears and she said, “It really says I had sex with a collie?”

The staffer quickly corrected her boss: “No, a colleague!”

“That’s how far down her expectations had gone of what people thought she was capable of,” the friend said.

Clinton’s eyes filled with tears and she said, “It really says I had sex with a collie?”

US Presidential hopeful in Royal scandal.

LOL I confused collie with corgi there, I'm almost as senile as she is (allegedly).

can we start keeping a running count of articles asking "Why don't people like her?" that don't include the words "Iraq" or "Patriot Act" in them yet blabber on about bullshit like oh she once on her plane she had someone reading a magazine to her and she misheard it

"I did not have sex with that Lassie."