I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

Y E S

plouffe otm imo https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.c04c99bfeaa0

Early voting dates depend on the district in which you're registered and how they handle voting.

Marshall:

Further beneath these numbers we see a persistent trend almost everywhere: Clinton does better in a head to head race than in a multiple candidate race where Johnson and Stein are added. That's great for Clinton, until you consider that in most but not all states there are four candidates on the ballot. You can look at this in two different ways. Pessimistically her coalition is fragmented, allowing Trump to be competitive or tied with number in the low or mid-40s. That suggests the possibility of a LaPage scenario (after Maine's governor) where you have a widely reviled buffoon who is elected against a divided opposition. More optimistically, third party numbers tend to decline in the final weeks of the campaign. If that happens, it should drive Clinton's numbers up relative to Trump.

An additional thing to consider is that in recent cycles the out-party usually drives an advantage from the first debate but generally isn't able to hold that advantage through election day. In this case, Trump is the out-party. But there are so many wildcards going into this debate, I'd be slightly less confident that history is any guide. It is worth remembering that Mitt Romney moved into a tiny lead after the first presidential debate in 2012 and held that until the last week of October. The PollTracker Average had Obama moving back into a minuscule lead on October 25th. On election day he was .7 percentage points ahead of Romney. In the event, he significantly outperformed that average, beating Romney by a 3.9 percentage point margin.

WaPo:

Excuses that Trump and his supporters have given for not releasing tax returns

Trump: “I’m being audited … so I can’t.” (See next section.) (Repeatedly since February)
Trump: “There’s nothing to learn from them.” (Fact checkers say this is false.) (February, February, May, May)
Trump: “Mitt Romney looked like a fool when he delayed and delayed and delayed and … didn’t file until a month and a half before the election and it cost him big league.” (February, July)
Trump: His tax rate is “none of your business.” (May)
Paul Manafort, former campaign chairman: American people “wouldn’t understand them.” (May)
Manafort: The only people who want them “are the people who want to defeat him.” (May)
Trump: “I don’t think anybody cares,” which is false. (May, September)
Eric Trump, son: Would be “foolish” to release; “you would have a bunch of people who know nothing about taxes trying to look through and trying to come up with assumptions on things that they know nothing about.” (August)
Mike Pence, vice-presidential nominee who released his tax returns: They’re a “distraction.” (September)
Donald Trump Jr.: “Would detract from (his dad’s) main message” (September)
Kellyanne Conway, campaign manager: “I just can’t find where this is a burning issue to most of the Americans.” (September) (In April, before joining his campaign, Conway said, “Donald Trump’s tax returns aren’t … transparent” and called for their release.)
Jeffrey Lord, commentator: Tax returns are “a political gimmick, a gotcha … Political opponents are going to go through there and look to make issues out of things.” (September)
Trump Jr.: “There’s a lot in a 12,000-page tax return that wouldn’t make sense to open up” (September)

Why IRS audits would not prevent Trump from releasing his tax returns

Trump’s tax attorneys said in March that his returns since 2009 were being audited. The IRS said nothing, including an audit, “prevents individuals from sharing their own tax information.”
His tax attorneys said returns from 2002 to 2008 are no longer being audited. Trump said he will still not release those returns because “they’re all linked.”
President Richard Nixon released his tax returns while under audit.
All major presidential nominees of the past 40 years have released their tax returns.
Trump can delay the completion of his audits.

What we would learn from Trump’s tax returns

How much (or how little) money he makes
How much (or how little) he gives to charity
How much (or how little) he pays in taxes
How much (or how little) money he keeps in foreign accounts (including in Russia)
(For an example, see the first four pages of Hillary Clinton’s 2015 tax returns)

Meanwhile, where is the purported Fahrenthold revelation?

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus further blurred this surreal election year’s line between reality and reality TV on Monday, suggesting that Donald Trump’s tenure as a host on “The Apprentice” prepared him to face off against Hillary Clinton in the first presidential debate.

CNN’s Wolf Blitzer asked Priebus how Trump had prepared for Monday night’s face-off at Hofstra University in Long Island.

“Studying, preparing, going through hypotheticals and what scenarios might come up, but he's very comfortable,” the RNC chair replied. “He did a great job in our primary debates. He's also been through, what, 14 seasons, season finales. He will be prepared. He's always showed up for the big dance, and he will be prepared and he'll be ready to go tonight.”

don't forget his high pressure WWE appearances

I'm trying not to panic but there's something that feels inevitable about all this. I seriously wake up in a panic thinking Donald fucking Trump is going to be the next president and that a major economic crash may wind up as the best-case scenario

― frogbs, Monday, September 26, 2016 9:26 AM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

What will actually happen if he gets elected. God... years ago Tim Heidecker's hacky comedian character fantasized about him being sworn in and it was hilarious and ridiculous without there being a larger joke attached to it but now it's just going to be this fucked up thing that future civilizations read about in books about the collapse of the USA and history teachers will have to answer "how were people back then so stupid?" or "how did people actually believe any of the semi-coherent things he said?" "how was his idiocy not obvious at the time? It looks like they had plenty of information."

Xp acc to Twitter it's being delayed by editors

So if (god forbid) HRC loses this thing, is the media going to point to the "Deplorable" remark as the thing that ultimately sank her?

even if president trump is prevented from fulfilling his most egregious policies + wishes i think an economic crash w/ his election would be inevitable just bc he's promised to not pay back lenders in full which would certainly downgrade US credit I'd think substantially.

the emails surely? xp

That and the unstinting opposition of Dr. Morbius.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.5b980651e403

I've never seen an episode of The Apprentice (of which there are apparently many episodes) but it looks like each season had significantly fewer viewers. I'm guessing interest in Trump as a political figure has to be dropping off accordingly?

Is the state of the union address like a season finale, not sure here

i know she's rich and mega-powerful and an inherently evil politician yadda yadda but jeez, if this isn't enough to make you feel bad for her
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/is-she-likable-enough/2016/09/23/5c8fd252-80e0-11e6-a52d-9a865a0ed0d4_story.html

Clinton’s caution stems in part from her conclusion that the public would believe almost anything derogatory about her, friends and aides agreed. As first lady, according to a close friend, Clinton was on a small plane with a staffer who was reading aloud a magazine story that repeated an accusation that Clinton had had sex with a colleague.

Clinton’s eyes filled with tears and she said, “It really says I had sex with a collie?”

The staffer quickly corrected her boss: “No, a colleague!”

“That’s how far down her expectations had gone of what people thought she was capable of,” the friend said.

Clinton’s eyes filled with tears and she said, “It really says I had sex with a collie?”

US Presidential hopeful in Royal scandal.

LOL I confused collie with corgi there, I'm almost as senile as she is (allegedly).

can we start keeping a running count of articles asking "Why don't people like her?" that don't include the words "Iraq" or "Patriot Act" in them yet blabber on about bullshit like oh she once on her plane she had someone reading a magazine to her and she misheard it

"I did not have sex with that Lassie."

xp why not? we're already keeping a running count of all the politicians that have been forgiven for those things and worse

oh people forgave her for all that, that must be why she is barely winning over Literal Hitler

it says a lot about this race when you look at the breadth of emotion that's allowed

any ability to emote like a normal human is going to get overanalyzed where with trump's manbaby tantrums, the only valid reaction to *anything* is to get angry and stomp around a lot. if anything it's validating all the bullshit stereotypes about male emotional range -- you either get aggression in the form of anger and being rude, or occasional outpourings of teary-eyed patriotism about common americans. and trump is completely incapable of the latter, the guy has no empathy or pity in there. it's all ranting and raging which i'm supposed to buy as him being engaged and interested

want to do the annoying twitter clap emoji thing with "VOTING ISN'T A PROJECTION OF YOUR ETHICS"

jesus christ do we need to do the "reasons why hillary clinton is flawed/not the perfect candidate" every fucking time? xxp

I mean, the idea that no one understands what she's really done/stands for and if we did we'd be unforgiving of her, too, is a point that is trotted out constantly

like wow she's barely winning (?!?) so hmm what could it be! could you tell us, Adam? I'm sure we haven't any clue

probably also the whole talking down to people shtick that Clinton which you just demonstrated.

that Clinton uses and which you just demonstrated

David Fahrenthold ‏@Fahrenthold 38s38 seconds ago
Sorry for the delay. Editors up in NY. Takes longer for the words to go back and forth.

In what world don't people like Adam and Morbs talk down to people?

Adam, you kind of have this shtick where you act like no one is addressing something you find important, even though they are, and then go completely over the top to (??) prove your point? like I can't decipher some of your posts sometimes because I can't tell from which direction you're being hyperbolic

hey man we are all criticizing each other's speech what a great discussion

like I'm sure part of it is me missing something crucial, but it sometimes feels like an argument against not just a straw man, but a straw man that never showed up

what are you talking about? i am not arguing w anyone. i stated my opinion. i don't think it's better than yours. you can have your opinion too. if that opinion is that my opinion is not valid, then why should i care about your opinion?

the word opinion looks weird now

Clinton getting called out for talking down to people is fair! But half the time it's sarcasm, which is fine in moderation as long as your audience isn't too dumb to get it -- and by using it, you're implying they will get it, so you're treating them as equals or at least people capable of getting it

I'm skeptical of potential impact of fahrenholt's "bombshell". I mean what could possibly damage Trump at this point.

honestly the only thing that could damage him at this point would have to involve pedophilia

hey man we are all criticizing each other's speech what a great discussion

are you just here to make Morbs look good?

i think if there were a few things that got consistent national press attention it would have an effect, it just feels like there are so many threads wrt trump's shittiness that it's just all diffused

the clinton email thing was hammered away at by numerous media outlets where as trump scandals have a little bit here, a little bit there, some more there, but there are so many things to cover that it doesn't have a huge effect

e.g. if the ivana trump testimony in court from that trump raped her and ripped her hair out got consistent national press attention then i think that would affect his standing, haven't really seen anyone but TPM mention that testimony

honestly the only thing that could damage him at this point would have to involve pedophilia

― serge thoroughgoods (will), Monday, September 26, 2016 3:00 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

and that story is being circulated in some fringe media circles tbf

xp
Is Ivana still standing by the story? If not, or even if she's "no comment" about it I don't think it'll have an impact.

This is depressing: https://t.co/lx9KjsrkDA 65% of American voters thinks it's unfair to - accurately - portray Trump voters as racist and sexist.

I don't get the "what could damage trump" thing tbh. As far as I can tell, Trump is losing badly, to about the extent one might have guessed for a candidate likely to push nationwide PVI a few points in the +D direction vs 2012.

How is he losing badly?

Clinton’s eyes filled with tears and she said, “It really says I had sex with a collie?”

http://i.imgur.com/QlaiOd2.gifHillary Can't Even Remember if She Had Sex With a Dog - "...I has sex with a collie?" - Disgusting Habit At Least 20 Years Oldhttp://i.imgur.com/QlaiOd2.gif

Ivana can't say shit because her divorce settlement, after all that testimony, was basically a big NDA

those sirens were larger than i anticipated, sorry
xpost

As far as I can tell, Trump is losing badly

um

Come on. Republicans who are going to win the election aren't facing down D spending in states like Georgia, haven't spent the last month and a half on the bad side of every poll aggregator, and have actual campaign organizations.