I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

How is he losing badly?

Clinton’s eyes filled with tears and she said, “It really says I had sex with a collie?”

http://i.imgur.com/QlaiOd2.gifHillary Can't Even Remember if She Had Sex With a Dog - "...I has sex with a collie?" - Disgusting Habit At Least 20 Years Oldhttp://i.imgur.com/QlaiOd2.gif

Ivana can't say shit because her divorce settlement, after all that testimony, was basically a big NDA

those sirens were larger than i anticipated, sorry
xpost

As far as I can tell, Trump is losing badly

um

Come on. Republicans who are going to win the election aren't facing down D spending in states like Georgia, haven't spent the last month and a half on the bad side of every poll aggregator, and have actual campaign organizations.

I am no way a political wonk, but I trust the expertise of Plouffe and it seems that he is losing badly.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-picks-top-climate-skeptic-to-lead-epa-transition/

Come on. Republicans who are going to win the election aren't facing down D spending in states like Georgia, haven't spent the last month and a half on the bad side of every poll aggregator, and have actual campaign organizations.

― slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Monday, September 26, 2016 3:15 PM (five minutes ago)

huh

I'm holding out a microsmidgen of hope that there really are people who haven't been paying attention all this time, and are only just tuning in. Or that there are genuinely undecided voters who are genuinely undecided, not simply voting their tribal affiliation.

Low-info voters may have heard that Trump sometimes says mean things. They may have heard his views are controversial. But they may not be aware of his inability to utter coherent English sentences. His lack of mastery of basic facts may also be new news to some. These are things that a debate may demonstrate for people who did not yet know them.

People may not care, of course, but again I'm holding onto a bit of hope.

idk we can hold out hope that he literally poops his pants or something

Trump is "tough on pants", his bowels "tell it like it is"

Trump's shitting schedule "Depends on nothing"

i will shit in my pants and make my pants pay for it

i'm just struggling to reason how people who genuinely love trump aren't total cunts, and essentially unredeemable at this point?

I am no way a political wonk, but I trust the expertise of Plouffe and it seems that he is losing badly.

― Van Horn Street, Monday, September 26, 2016 7:16 PM (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I assume the dem's data operation has a much large sample than the 800-650 people these registered and likely voter sample polls are. It seems like such a small sample size but maybe its not? But if it is I can see why the numbers fluctuate so much.

So has anybody come out and accused Silver et al. of actually designing the nowcast models to be overly volatile for the sake of clicks

i will shit in my pants and make my pants pay for it

I would assume that to be part and parcel of shitting your pants and therefore redundant

I guess the better analogy is to shit in someone else's pants and ask them to pay for it

some discussion here: https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/780399287129825281 xxp

shall I post an image

not if it's Trump shitting in Clinton's pants

'Parcel'

The outreach continues: 'Trump Ally Roger Stone Lectures Black Voters: “Trading Your Vote For A Welfare Check, Yes, That Is A Form Of Slavery”'

that there are genuinely undecided voters

this election I suspect that a fairish chunk of voters are still very conflicted about their usual tribal allegiance. there's a lot of queasiness out there, with more of it centered on trump than clinton, but it applies to both of them. while this is different than being genuinely undecided, it makes those voters volatile and hard to predict.

some discussion here: https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/780399287129825281 xxp

― Mordy, Monday, September 26, 2016 3:37 PM (eleven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yea interesting thread, though im still not clear on why the other prediction markets are hovering around 70% clinton while 538 is (right now) around 53-54% clinton

Clinton's in trouble in the polls because white men are "coming home" to Trump and the GOP in droves. It was bound to happen, but it looks worse after Clinton's convention bump.

A good friend of mine who is a political science professor has pointed out multiple times among various conversations about this election that analysis of election data shows that most people will vote whatever party they've registered as regardless of who the nominee is, to the tune of something like 90% certainty; in his view, the key factor here isn't Clinton wooing undecided voters as much as it is Trump depressing turnout among voters who would normally vote Republican. Going by this and the generally strong foothold Democrats have in the electoral college in several key battleground states, I'm not overly concerned that Trump will actually win the Presidency. What I am concerned about, namely that a Trump candidacy will legitimize a particularly virulent strain of racist thought as acceptable and mainstream to polite conversation, has already happened; my main hope for a Clinton victory is that some effort is put into damage control on that.

wtf is with all these old white people who think all black voters receive government assistance

my friends who volunteered to do door-knocking for the local democrats a few years ago were disappointed when their entire list was registered democrats. their job was to make sure people knew when the vote was, how to get to the polls, absentee ballots, etc

I think they thought they were going to get a list of undecided or unregistered voters and get to do missionary work?

DJP's professor friend otm - this is all gonna be about turnout, Trump is going to depress GOP turnout + aggressive Dem GOTV campaign + favorable electoral map = Clinton wins

xp

my fear (and it's pretty low-level at this point) is that for all the moderate registered Republicans who can't be bothered to go to the polls for Trump, there's a scarily large crop of younger and disaffected racists who normally wouldn't bother to vote but think this dude's a rock star.

wtf is with all these old white people who think all black voters receive government assistance

they are racists

(I mean, you did ask)

it's weird how that has to keep being reiterated

xp
wtf is with all these old white people who think all black voters receive government assistance

I think it's called racism. btw racism isn't confined to old people.

lol you've got me there

The problem is that racists believe that actual racism is strictly the KKK and that they themselves are just "realists". This is why they think claims otherwise is just political correctness gone amok and why Trump is "telling it like it is"

DJP's professor friend otm - this is all gonna be about turnout, Trump is going to depress GOP turnout + aggressive Dem GOTV campaign + favorable electoral map = Clinton wins

xp

― Οὖτις, Monday, September 26, 2016 4:06 PM (three minutes ago)

i think you'll probably be right.

still, (and i know this is never a popular thing to bring up because it's based on the possibility of an unknown, undefined future event), when the polls are this close heading into the final month and a half, i worry about an infamous october surprise, especially when you have various organizations and countries who have an interest in a trump victory and are actively trying to influence the election

e.g.,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/us/politics/harry-reid-russia-tampering-election-fbi.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/clinton-democrats-hacking-dnc-october-surprise-226743

if clinton was 10 points ahead at this point, as i (and i think a lot of other people) expected she would be by now, it wouldn't worry me too much. but she's not, and it does.

Yes that, or that racism ended in either 1865 or 1965 and now it's just grievance groups milking it.

I agree with Lord Alfred that Trump's current poll position is due to Republicans who find him distasteful (like Cruz) learning to hold their noses and tepidly follow their tribal allegiance. NeverTrumpers coming home plus Clinton's 9/11 health scare.

absent some sort of big unexpected event like that, though, i think Trump is going to depress GOP turnout + aggressive Dem GOTV campaign + favorable electoral map = Clinton wins is probably right
xpost

xps

Yes. These 'folks' will accurately point out that there are genuine black people currently on welfare. Therefore they are not racists when they draw massively distorted, racially-based conclusions from this that in no way are based in reality.

people are really touchy about distinguishing between being called out on a single racist idea and being a person who defines their world according to perceived racial boundaries

like they're ideas, have a lot of them, be open to having them questioned and malleable

re 538's model.. silver was saying on 538's podcast that his model accurately incorporates 'uncertainty' which sounded like some bs to me

Yes. These 'folks' will accurately point out that there are genuine black people currently on welfare. Therefore they are not racists when they draw massively distorted, racially-based conclusions from this that in no way are based in reality.

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, September 26, 2016 8:20 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

and when they get government assistance its totally cool because they work hard and play by the rules meanwhile these blacks keep ordering their welfare checks to be expressed delivered to the projects via their obamaphones

I don't think the 9-11 scare has had an effect on her numbers.

didn't listen to that podcast but the general principle of "incorporating uncertainty" -- confidence levels -- is an important one! xxp

I posted a WaPo story (I think it was WaPo) late last week explaining how most likely Clinton voters weren't moved by the pneumonia. Which makes sense. Who says, "Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

xxp the idea that any terror scare will break in trump's favor is absurd

Who says, "Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

yeah this never made sense to me. America's elected near-invalids, who changes their vote based on whether or not their party's candidate is "healthy"?

i don't think it's so much them changing over to Trump as it is overall enthusiasm for her going down

maybe there's another explanation but it definitely moved the polls somewhat