I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

wtf is with all these old white people who think all black voters receive government assistance

they are racists

(I mean, you did ask)

it's weird how that has to keep being reiterated

xp
wtf is with all these old white people who think all black voters receive government assistance

I think it's called racism. btw racism isn't confined to old people.

lol you've got me there

The problem is that racists believe that actual racism is strictly the KKK and that they themselves are just "realists". This is why they think claims otherwise is just political correctness gone amok and why Trump is "telling it like it is"

DJP's professor friend otm - this is all gonna be about turnout, Trump is going to depress GOP turnout + aggressive Dem GOTV campaign + favorable electoral map = Clinton wins

xp

― Οὖτις, Monday, September 26, 2016 4:06 PM (three minutes ago)

i think you'll probably be right.

still, (and i know this is never a popular thing to bring up because it's based on the possibility of an unknown, undefined future event), when the polls are this close heading into the final month and a half, i worry about an infamous october surprise, especially when you have various organizations and countries who have an interest in a trump victory and are actively trying to influence the election

e.g.,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/us/politics/harry-reid-russia-tampering-election-fbi.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/clinton-democrats-hacking-dnc-october-surprise-226743

if clinton was 10 points ahead at this point, as i (and i think a lot of other people) expected she would be by now, it wouldn't worry me too much. but she's not, and it does.

Yes that, or that racism ended in either 1865 or 1965 and now it's just grievance groups milking it.

I agree with Lord Alfred that Trump's current poll position is due to Republicans who find him distasteful (like Cruz) learning to hold their noses and tepidly follow their tribal allegiance. NeverTrumpers coming home plus Clinton's 9/11 health scare.

absent some sort of big unexpected event like that, though, i think Trump is going to depress GOP turnout + aggressive Dem GOTV campaign + favorable electoral map = Clinton wins is probably right
xpost

xps

Yes. These 'folks' will accurately point out that there are genuine black people currently on welfare. Therefore they are not racists when they draw massively distorted, racially-based conclusions from this that in no way are based in reality.

people are really touchy about distinguishing between being called out on a single racist idea and being a person who defines their world according to perceived racial boundaries

like they're ideas, have a lot of them, be open to having them questioned and malleable

re 538's model.. silver was saying on 538's podcast that his model accurately incorporates 'uncertainty' which sounded like some bs to me

Yes. These 'folks' will accurately point out that there are genuine black people currently on welfare. Therefore they are not racists when they draw massively distorted, racially-based conclusions from this that in no way are based in reality.

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, September 26, 2016 8:20 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

and when they get government assistance its totally cool because they work hard and play by the rules meanwhile these blacks keep ordering their welfare checks to be expressed delivered to the projects via their obamaphones

I don't think the 9-11 scare has had an effect on her numbers.

didn't listen to that podcast but the general principle of "incorporating uncertainty" -- confidence levels -- is an important one! xxp

I posted a WaPo story (I think it was WaPo) late last week explaining how most likely Clinton voters weren't moved by the pneumonia. Which makes sense. Who says, "Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

xxp the idea that any terror scare will break in trump's favor is absurd

Who says, "Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

yeah this never made sense to me. America's elected near-invalids, who changes their vote based on whether or not their party's candidate is "healthy"?

i don't think it's so much them changing over to Trump as it is overall enthusiasm for her going down

maybe there's another explanation but it definitely moved the polls somewhat

there's no evidence it has

I'm holding out a microsmidgen of hope that there really are people who haven't been paying attention all this time, and are only just tuning in.

I'm not sure why you call this a microsmidgen when there are 100% definitely a ton of people like this.

Just read a piece about tonght's debate on NYT which made me so fucking mad with its mealy mouthed 'evenhandedness'

The Sunday NY Times had a full page of "Trump's 31 Biggest 'Whoppers'"... and you are still not satisfied?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-directed-23-million-owed-to-him-to-his-charity-instead/2016/09/26/7a9e9fac-8352-11e6-ac72-a29979381495_story.html?postshare=2761474922583336&tid=ss_tw

I posted a WaPo story (I think it was WaPo) late last week explaining how most likely Clinton voters weren't moved by the pneumonia. Which makes sense. Who says, "Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

I don't think anyone says or thinks that exactly, but there are uncommitted voters who are gonna be nudged in one direction or another by this week's bad press when they're responding to a poll. it makes more sense to think of these things from the big picture / thousands of voters pov rather than 'one person sees something on tv and decides how to vote on the spot'

his foundation is literally a money laundering scheme

I typed out a long post about social welfare and how we're writing off entire neighborhoods and cities due to an inability to realize their failures aren't an indictment of that area but of society at large. That's something for another thread or time.

"Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

shit, you figured out my voting strategy

his foundation is literally a money laundering scheme

― Mordy, Monday, September 26, 2016 3:46 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

did you see the stats on the florida policeman's association or w/e? he vowed he'd donate money, took money someone else donated ($150k) in his name and took their name off when cutting them a check for the same $150k, then they threw an event for him at the cost of $275k

i give up

many political campaigns leave outstanding debts, some are very profitable for vendors who are close to someone in the campaign, and I feel like this one is going to do both very well

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-directed-23-million-owed-to-him-to-his-charity-instead/2016/09/26/7a9e9fac-8352-11e6-ac72-a29979381495_story.html

I don't think anyone says or thinks that exactly, but there are uncommitted voters who are gonna be nudged in one direction or another by this week's bad press when they're responding to a poll.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Chatter about Clinton's poll numbers leads to voters saying she has declining poll numbers.

lol one of trump's lawyers just had to bill them the .1 hours this $ value represents.

The Trump Foundation has no paid staff. The last time it reported spending any money on legal fees was in 2010, when it spent $53 total for the year.

Trump Foundation for furthering the knowledge of and publication of materials related to Donald Trump

employees: Donald Trump

okay so this is exactly what everyone's been accusing the Clinton Foundation of doing isn't it?

not really

this is just standard tax evasion

No, they claim the Clinton Foundation actually trades money in return for services with crooked foreign governments they shouldn't be dealing with

The Trump Foundation doesn't do anything other than pay for and receive money for Trump himself, iirc

without showing his tax returns though trump can easily spin this into "what, i didn't need the money so i just gave it to charity!"

got it. I thought the big Clinton Foundation thing is that they were making themselves "personally rich" through it. Maybe I read too much Breetbart

apparently Bloomberg News is doing pretty much exactly what I suggested during the debate:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/09/bloomberg-to-fact-check-debate-on-screen-228670

without showing his tax returns though trump can easily spin this into "what, i didn't need the money so i just gave it to charity!"

― marcos, Monday, September 26, 2016 9:13 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

except his foundation doesnt give anything to charity as fahrenthold has been showing us

wait no I thought the foundation gives, just not any of Trump's own money

it launders money, as Mordy says

lol no

it receives donations

that's it

did we know that bobby knight was apparently involved in trump's debate prep?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/21/trump-foundation-charity-settle-legal-disputes-reporting

I take it back, they gave $100k to Citizens United!

You can look up its disbursements. It does pay to charities.

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/133404773

what? knight taught trump his chair-throwing technique?

xp i thought journalists are unable to account for like 99% of the money by asking charities? where is the evidence that it ends up with a charity?

hillary should have someone wheel her out in a closed coffin, let's just completely WWE this shit out

jmm's link is pretty good, either these groups received money or they committed direct tax fraud w/the IRS