I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

people are really touchy about distinguishing between being called out on a single racist idea and being a person who defines their world according to perceived racial boundaries

like they're ideas, have a lot of them, be open to having them questioned and malleable

re 538's model.. silver was saying on 538's podcast that his model accurately incorporates 'uncertainty' which sounded like some bs to me

Yes. These 'folks' will accurately point out that there are genuine black people currently on welfare. Therefore they are not racists when they draw massively distorted, racially-based conclusions from this that in no way are based in reality.

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, September 26, 2016 8:20 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

and when they get government assistance its totally cool because they work hard and play by the rules meanwhile these blacks keep ordering their welfare checks to be expressed delivered to the projects via their obamaphones

I don't think the 9-11 scare has had an effect on her numbers.

didn't listen to that podcast but the general principle of "incorporating uncertainty" -- confidence levels -- is an important one! xxp

I posted a WaPo story (I think it was WaPo) late last week explaining how most likely Clinton voters weren't moved by the pneumonia. Which makes sense. Who says, "Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

xxp the idea that any terror scare will break in trump's favor is absurd

Who says, "Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

yeah this never made sense to me. America's elected near-invalids, who changes their vote based on whether or not their party's candidate is "healthy"?

i don't think it's so much them changing over to Trump as it is overall enthusiasm for her going down

maybe there's another explanation but it definitely moved the polls somewhat

there's no evidence it has

I'm holding out a microsmidgen of hope that there really are people who haven't been paying attention all this time, and are only just tuning in.

I'm not sure why you call this a microsmidgen when there are 100% definitely a ton of people like this.

Just read a piece about tonght's debate on NYT which made me so fucking mad with its mealy mouthed 'evenhandedness'

The Sunday NY Times had a full page of "Trump's 31 Biggest 'Whoppers'"... and you are still not satisfied?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-directed-23-million-owed-to-him-to-his-charity-instead/2016/09/26/7a9e9fac-8352-11e6-ac72-a29979381495_story.html?postshare=2761474922583336&tid=ss_tw

I posted a WaPo story (I think it was WaPo) late last week explaining how most likely Clinton voters weren't moved by the pneumonia. Which makes sense. Who says, "Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

I don't think anyone says or thinks that exactly, but there are uncommitted voters who are gonna be nudged in one direction or another by this week's bad press when they're responding to a poll. it makes more sense to think of these things from the big picture / thousands of voters pov rather than 'one person sees something on tv and decides how to vote on the spot'

his foundation is literally a money laundering scheme

I typed out a long post about social welfare and how we're writing off entire neighborhoods and cities due to an inability to realize their failures aren't an indictment of that area but of society at large. That's something for another thread or time.

"Well, gee, she's home sick, guess I'll vote for the racist"?

shit, you figured out my voting strategy

his foundation is literally a money laundering scheme

― Mordy, Monday, September 26, 2016 3:46 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

did you see the stats on the florida policeman's association or w/e? he vowed he'd donate money, took money someone else donated ($150k) in his name and took their name off when cutting them a check for the same $150k, then they threw an event for him at the cost of $275k

i give up

many political campaigns leave outstanding debts, some are very profitable for vendors who are close to someone in the campaign, and I feel like this one is going to do both very well

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-directed-23-million-owed-to-him-to-his-charity-instead/2016/09/26/7a9e9fac-8352-11e6-ac72-a29979381495_story.html

I don't think anyone says or thinks that exactly, but there are uncommitted voters who are gonna be nudged in one direction or another by this week's bad press when they're responding to a poll.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Chatter about Clinton's poll numbers leads to voters saying she has declining poll numbers.

lol one of trump's lawyers just had to bill them the .1 hours this $ value represents.

The Trump Foundation has no paid staff. The last time it reported spending any money on legal fees was in 2010, when it spent $53 total for the year.

Trump Foundation for furthering the knowledge of and publication of materials related to Donald Trump

employees: Donald Trump

okay so this is exactly what everyone's been accusing the Clinton Foundation of doing isn't it?

not really

this is just standard tax evasion

No, they claim the Clinton Foundation actually trades money in return for services with crooked foreign governments they shouldn't be dealing with

The Trump Foundation doesn't do anything other than pay for and receive money for Trump himself, iirc

without showing his tax returns though trump can easily spin this into "what, i didn't need the money so i just gave it to charity!"

got it. I thought the big Clinton Foundation thing is that they were making themselves "personally rich" through it. Maybe I read too much Breetbart

apparently Bloomberg News is doing pretty much exactly what I suggested during the debate:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/09/bloomberg-to-fact-check-debate-on-screen-228670

without showing his tax returns though trump can easily spin this into "what, i didn't need the money so i just gave it to charity!"

― marcos, Monday, September 26, 2016 9:13 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

except his foundation doesnt give anything to charity as fahrenthold has been showing us

wait no I thought the foundation gives, just not any of Trump's own money

it launders money, as Mordy says

lol no

it receives donations

that's it

did we know that bobby knight was apparently involved in trump's debate prep?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/21/trump-foundation-charity-settle-legal-disputes-reporting

I take it back, they gave $100k to Citizens United!

You can look up its disbursements. It does pay to charities.

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/133404773

what? knight taught trump his chair-throwing technique?

xp i thought journalists are unable to account for like 99% of the money by asking charities? where is the evidence that it ends up with a charity?

hillary should have someone wheel her out in a closed coffin, let's just completely WWE this shit out

jmm's link is pretty good, either these groups received money or they committed direct tax fraud w/the IRS

hillary should have someone wheel her out in a closed coffin

I was thinking Snoop at '94 MTV awards

Trump sends some of his income that way, to illegally avoid paying taxes. He then uses the money either for influence peddling - donating to Pam Bondi, who then dropped an investigation into Trump practices - he donates and gets things in return - donated to a police organization, that then spent almost twice the amount on meeting at Mar-a-Lago - or he just uses it on personal shit like paintings of himself and a helmet autographed by Tim Tebow. It's a bit of this, a bit of that.

Also, several times the foundation faked the forms jmm linked to, for instance the Pam Bondi donation was hid as a donation to a different group, that never got any money.

it would kinda be great if trump really did think he had given to all those charities but the reason none of them have records is because his accountants were embezzling funds

I can see at least a half dozen of the 2015 ones where I know he gave money to an organization in Iowa in order to speak to them pre-caucus

Some of them are situations where they were fundraisers for the campaign, and I'm sure he made a show of saying he gave them money.

Given what people have dug up without him releasing his tax returns, I can only imagine what releasing his tax returns would accomplish. Are these conflicts and irregularities things the IRS would have caught on their own, or does it really take an investigative journalist?

he seems to have one accountant on record? the thing that blows my mind with Trump is that he doesn't actually hire people with skills, he just lowballs everything

if he had actual good legal representation and someone to do the paperwork with speaking fees, etc, I think he'd actually come out with a net profit after paying the lawyer

hillary should have someone wheel her out in a closed coffin, let's just completely WWE this shit out

― nomar, Monday, 26 September 2016 21:31 (twenty-six minutes ago) Permalink

or

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yOK074MPMI

Should go full Alice, or Gwar, and chop off someone's head with a guillotine and spew the first few row with fluids.

You know, I've been listening to these pre-debate accounts of the two Trumps, one crass and insulting, the other more controlled and "Presidential." But none of these reports have pointed out that when Trump was trying to be "presidential" he came off extremely bored, even a little irritable, which doesn't go over as well as his carny mode.