I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

You can look up its disbursements. It does pay to charities.

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/133404773

what? knight taught trump his chair-throwing technique?

xp i thought journalists are unable to account for like 99% of the money by asking charities? where is the evidence that it ends up with a charity?

hillary should have someone wheel her out in a closed coffin, let's just completely WWE this shit out

jmm's link is pretty good, either these groups received money or they committed direct tax fraud w/the IRS

hillary should have someone wheel her out in a closed coffin

I was thinking Snoop at '94 MTV awards

Trump sends some of his income that way, to illegally avoid paying taxes. He then uses the money either for influence peddling - donating to Pam Bondi, who then dropped an investigation into Trump practices - he donates and gets things in return - donated to a police organization, that then spent almost twice the amount on meeting at Mar-a-Lago - or he just uses it on personal shit like paintings of himself and a helmet autographed by Tim Tebow. It's a bit of this, a bit of that.

Also, several times the foundation faked the forms jmm linked to, for instance the Pam Bondi donation was hid as a donation to a different group, that never got any money.

it would kinda be great if trump really did think he had given to all those charities but the reason none of them have records is because his accountants were embezzling funds

I can see at least a half dozen of the 2015 ones where I know he gave money to an organization in Iowa in order to speak to them pre-caucus

Some of them are situations where they were fundraisers for the campaign, and I'm sure he made a show of saying he gave them money.

Given what people have dug up without him releasing his tax returns, I can only imagine what releasing his tax returns would accomplish. Are these conflicts and irregularities things the IRS would have caught on their own, or does it really take an investigative journalist?

he seems to have one accountant on record? the thing that blows my mind with Trump is that he doesn't actually hire people with skills, he just lowballs everything

if he had actual good legal representation and someone to do the paperwork with speaking fees, etc, I think he'd actually come out with a net profit after paying the lawyer

hillary should have someone wheel her out in a closed coffin, let's just completely WWE this shit out

― nomar, Monday, 26 September 2016 21:31 (twenty-six minutes ago) Permalink

or

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yOK074MPMI

Should go full Alice, or Gwar, and chop off someone's head with a guillotine and spew the first few row with fluids.

You know, I've been listening to these pre-debate accounts of the two Trumps, one crass and insulting, the other more controlled and "Presidential." But none of these reports have pointed out that when Trump was trying to be "presidential" he came off extremely bored, even a little irritable, which doesn't go over as well as his carny mode.

Josh, did you see this? http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/how-donald-trump-lost-his-mojo-w438162

who r we rooting for

'Presidential' Trump comes off like a third grader reading a book report. Which isn't so much a comparison as a fairly accurate description.

I was thinking Snoop at '94 MTV awards

― Οὖτις, Monday, September 26, 2016 5:39 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Or Howard Stern at the 92 awards.

i'm going to watch great british bake off

i hate the discussion of whether trump can "learn to be presidential," like he is miss congeniality or something. dude is not rough around the edges he is human scum

ooof

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/what-will-white-people-say-about-how-trump-does-in-the-1787095019

that is great

Should we wager on the audience reaction(if any) will be tonight? Are we gunna get any "you lie!" ejaculations from the crowd?

can random schmoes get tickets for this thing or what?

I made a jokey post on FB about how if Actual Zombie Hitler ran for president, at least 30% of America would say, "Hey, wait, let's hear this re-animated Nazi corpse out, it has some solid ideas." My right wing aunt, who I've talked about here before, replied, "We have a Congress in this country, which is suppose to provide checks and balances. Germany did not have that. Hitler rose to dictatorship. Hopefully our system could stop something like that from happening."

People like her should maybe not be permitted to vote. Like, I don't expect you to know the ins and outs of German politics in the 1920s, but I do expect you to know that there was a German parliament that the Nazi party captured a bunch of seats in and pressured the German president to make Hitler Chancellor of Germany.

"We have a Congress in this country, which is suppose to provide checks and balances. Germany did not have that. Hitler rose to dictatorship. Hopefully our system could stop something like that from happening."

i like the way she sees her role as a voter as providing a stress test for congress

there's good stuff in that Tom Scocca article, but this last line is such obnoxious, self-satisfied garbage

If white Americans’ lives were truly desperate and hanging in the balance, they would never take the risk of electing an incompetent blowhard.

because people never vote against their own interests? because it's impossible for people to be both "truly desperate" and racist? I get that ppl want to push back against this Jacobin mag view that downplays racism as the heart of Trump's appeal and tried to make it all about class, but spare me Scocca pontificating on who is and who isn't "desperate"

dunno how i can stand this without Valium.

I bought a new bottle of Aperol.

something i learned from that article is that trump is winning the college educated white male vote. i think we can all agree that particular slice of the electorate is unredeemable

soref otm

because people never vote against their own interests? because it's impossible for people to be both "truly desperate" and racist? I get that ppl want to push back against this Jacobin mag view that downplays racism as the heart of Trump's appeal and tried to make it all about class, but spare me Scocca pontificating on who is and who isn't "desperate"

― soref, Tuesday, September 27, 2016 12:20 AM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

spare me trying to redefine the word 'desperate'

xp no he isn't

i don't think that people are voting for trump voters because they're desperate, but i think some of them are both authentically dispossessed and authentically hateful racists.

voting for trump voters

Its non-college educated mordy

The new poll finds that Trump is trailing by 25 points among college-educated white women, a group Romney carried. His 11-point lead among college-educated white men still leaves him trailing in the white collegiate class.

the "sympathetic argument" about why non-college educated whites support Trump that Scocca rejects and his argument that on-college educated whites support Trump because of bigotry do not seem at all mutually exclusive? I don't see why they can't both be true, why he feels the need to handwave "Jobs are gone, drug abuse is rampant, personal dignity and the hope of upward mobility have been destroyed by vast and brutal forces" in order to make case that Trump's popularity is based on racism.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtUS5ojXYAEBcuR.jpg:large

oh my god

the "sympathetic argument" about why non-college educated whites support Trump that Scocca rejects and his argument that on-college educated whites support Trump because of bigotry do not seem at all mutually exclusive? I don't see why they can't both be true, why he feels the need to handwave "Jobs are gone, drug abuse is rampant, personal dignity and the hope of upward mobility have been destroyed by vast and brutal forces" in order to make case that Trump's popularity is based on racism.

― soref, Tuesday, September 27, 2016 12:33 AM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah well everyone thinks their life is hard. a little honesty in comparison isn't going to hurt anyone. maybe some egos i guess.

nowcast moved from 45% clinton at lunchtime to 55% clinton at 6pm today lol this is fine and it's a good thing to put out in the world

it probably didn't even cause that many heart attacks

clinton down to 52% now fyi. i can't believe she let that lead slip away.

re: 'expectations' https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/780533131002646528

Voter expectations on Clinton 'winning' debate are fairly consistent:
Quinnipiac +9
Bloomberg +10
YouGov +12
ABC/WP +14
CNN +10
cf. Expectations for Obama win at 1st debate in 2012: ABC/WaPo +27, Q'pac +29

projections are supposed to give us a better than 50/50 idea of what is going to happen. i don't see any value in nate's model if it's returning coin flip results. great - i can flip coins myself at home.

tbf 50/50 is a reasonable thing to say if it is either actually very close, or it's a two horse race with lots of irreconcilable information. both of those seem plausible.

but the results of a model that moves around like the nowcast (or indeed the others) should not be quoted to 3 significant figures (or 2 tbh)

it's reasonable but it's useless

wonder if Cruz would have elicited this kind of weird identity politics with angry whites or if Clinton would have been steady beating him by a consistent & comfortable margin since the convention

Aw come on! I thought this was about to start, and there's still an hour to go. I was already doubting whether my masochism would stretch to watching this, but if it starts at 2am? Finish by half three?