I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

something i learned from that article is that trump is winning the college educated white male vote. i think we can all agree that particular slice of the electorate is unredeemable

soref otm

because people never vote against their own interests? because it's impossible for people to be both "truly desperate" and racist? I get that ppl want to push back against this Jacobin mag view that downplays racism as the heart of Trump's appeal and tried to make it all about class, but spare me Scocca pontificating on who is and who isn't "desperate"

― soref, Tuesday, September 27, 2016 12:20 AM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

spare me trying to redefine the word 'desperate'

xp no he isn't

i don't think that people are voting for trump voters because they're desperate, but i think some of them are both authentically dispossessed and authentically hateful racists.

voting for trump voters

Its non-college educated mordy

The new poll finds that Trump is trailing by 25 points among college-educated white women, a group Romney carried. His 11-point lead among college-educated white men still leaves him trailing in the white collegiate class.

the "sympathetic argument" about why non-college educated whites support Trump that Scocca rejects and his argument that on-college educated whites support Trump because of bigotry do not seem at all mutually exclusive? I don't see why they can't both be true, why he feels the need to handwave "Jobs are gone, drug abuse is rampant, personal dignity and the hope of upward mobility have been destroyed by vast and brutal forces" in order to make case that Trump's popularity is based on racism.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtUS5ojXYAEBcuR.jpg:large

oh my god

the "sympathetic argument" about why non-college educated whites support Trump that Scocca rejects and his argument that on-college educated whites support Trump because of bigotry do not seem at all mutually exclusive? I don't see why they can't both be true, why he feels the need to handwave "Jobs are gone, drug abuse is rampant, personal dignity and the hope of upward mobility have been destroyed by vast and brutal forces" in order to make case that Trump's popularity is based on racism.

― soref, Tuesday, September 27, 2016 12:33 AM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah well everyone thinks their life is hard. a little honesty in comparison isn't going to hurt anyone. maybe some egos i guess.

nowcast moved from 45% clinton at lunchtime to 55% clinton at 6pm today lol this is fine and it's a good thing to put out in the world

it probably didn't even cause that many heart attacks

clinton down to 52% now fyi. i can't believe she let that lead slip away.

re: 'expectations' https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/780533131002646528

Voter expectations on Clinton 'winning' debate are fairly consistent:
Quinnipiac +9
Bloomberg +10
YouGov +12
ABC/WP +14
CNN +10
cf. Expectations for Obama win at 1st debate in 2012: ABC/WaPo +27, Q'pac +29

projections are supposed to give us a better than 50/50 idea of what is going to happen. i don't see any value in nate's model if it's returning coin flip results. great - i can flip coins myself at home.

tbf 50/50 is a reasonable thing to say if it is either actually very close, or it's a two horse race with lots of irreconcilable information. both of those seem plausible.

but the results of a model that moves around like the nowcast (or indeed the others) should not be quoted to 3 significant figures (or 2 tbh)

it's reasonable but it's useless

wonder if Cruz would have elicited this kind of weird identity politics with angry whites or if Clinton would have been steady beating him by a consistent & comfortable margin since the convention

Aw come on! I thought this was about to start, and there's still an hour to go. I was already doubting whether my masochism would stretch to watching this, but if it starts at 2am? Finish by half three?

Many XPS I imagine most of the college-educated males going for Trump majored in Date Rape.

yeah well everyone thinks their life is hard

more warm enveloping ilxpundit compassion

yeah you're famous for your compassion

Should we wager on the audience reaction(if any) will be tonight? Are we gunna get any "you lie!" ejaculations from the crowd?

If I understand the rules correctly, audience reactions will be prohibited. I really hope that ejaculations are similarly discouraged.

Personally I don't want to think about whether the candidates or the moderators are permitted to ejaculate.

Cruz would have won this thing easily, just as would have literally any republican but trump. Even if he wins, we were lucky to have him be the candidate. I think Clinton is smart and qualified etc, but it was insane to nominate the most hated person in America

unlike cruz, a beloved america respected by all

american*

I don't know. I think Cruz was the only guy on that GOP primary main stage that would be doing worse than Trump here.

or rubio tbh i think yr forgetting that before he was losing to hillary in the general election trump was more popular than all these other losers

it's kind of stunning in that cruz is essentially just as repellant as trump, but in this completely different, smug-ass college republican that in his mind is a gifted 19th century orator or 1980s televangelist, brought back just in time to save america, kind of way. they really epitomize two aspects of everything gross and awful about the republican party.

Should we wager on the audience reaction(if any) will be tonight?

One of the debate-commission people just told the audience to "be quiet." Which is what I would have expected anyway.

Here we go, guys

this completely different, smug-ass college republican that in his mind is a gifted 19th century orator or 1980s televangelist,

Yes -- I said last year that he reminded me of some McCarthy ass-kissing senator from 1951.

have fun!

http://www.aperol.com/media/45720/pack.png

I knew I forgot to get something at the store

Was it Karl Malone that did those great, unsettling graphics overlaying several images of the candidates' faces, like with a "blue and red 3D goggles" type effect? That kinda captured a lot of Ted Cruz for me.

https://twitter.com/SteveKingIA/status/777568225538088960

Cruz wouldn't make inroads in the midwest, nor would Rubio or any other Republican. Perhaps Kasich? No, Trump is doing better than what a generic republican would be doing, it seems. He gets the famed missing white vote in the midwest, and turns out other republicans don't give a fuck about racism or sexism anyway. Who would have guessed?

Well, I hope HRC has been able to figure out something that'll work tonight.

RE Steve King HOLY FUCK

I'm sure that's what his wife says.

despite the intense dread i'm feeling atm (maybe just bc i have to wake up super early to travel for work tmmrw) i am watching this

Are there commercial breaks on this?

why does everyone call trump donald j trump just like he wants

Drinking a pretty good islay single malt (a birthday present from my brother) to try and numb the unpleasantness of watching this.

Come down, collardio gelatinous!

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 22 September 2016 11:25 (four days ago) Permalink

Thanks Alfred! (much belated reply)

Jealous, I have to wait to hit the scotch until after a couple business calls.

XP

lmao trump sucks so much

i already feel 1000x better about this debate