I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

that article about how difficult it is to transcribe Trump's speeches when he goes off-prompter is pretty good. you can kinda follow his train of thought when you're hearing him but on paper it's such a jumble

I've interviewed people like this and its very hard to translate their jumbled runaway-trains of thoughts to the page. But most of the people I interview are drug damaged rock musicians.

tbf the jury is still very much out on trump's drug damage

Sam has basically said, in very nice veiled words, that maybe Nate should look at his model.

So we should get off the Silver standard, and instead we should Feel the Wang?

I'm viewing 538 as more of a postmodern meta-type project. It's less about trying to be predictive or ueful and more about outwardly dramatizing how complex the world is and how difficult it is to ever say anything, ever, is at all certain.

It is an elaborate commentary on contemporary epistemology, with the ultimate point being that confused despair is actually an accurate and honest response to the state of contemporary politics. I am not sure I disagree.

538 was the only aggregator (major) that ever dipped below 60% for Hillary

Well, RCP doesn't do probabilities, just state-of-the-race. They had Trump leading (barely) in late May and again in late July (the between-convention trough). In the dark "dead heat" days of September, they got very close (<3 points), but Troomp hasn't led since the DNC.

As noted I look at RCP partly _because_ it's right-leaning and I want to avoid false hope.

So we should get off the Silver standard, and instead we should Feel the Wang?

definitely, he's been pretty spot on this whole election, and I believe he was just as good as Nate in 2012

i am a stan for predictwise, but betting market-based predictions serve a different purpose than polling-based, and the writing on predictwise is underedited verging on unhinged. i've met the guy a couple of times and he is indeed nuts.

imo nate silver's horse race political/non-stats punditry is pretty good, his explanations of difficult statistical ideas are outstanding (e.g. this is amazingly clear http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-maybe-its-time-for-ohio-and-pennsylvania-to-part-ways/) and the polls-plus models seems fine (if it little overcorrelated with itself at the state level).

but the other two models shouldn't be on the website, and everyone else who writes for that website is bad and hated, especially that harry enten guy.

here's one thing the aggregators don't really take into account:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/07/trumps_ground_game_footprint_remains_small_131994.html

As such, the campaign has begun to open offices in some key battleground states, while adding state and regional directors to the payroll. Advisers have also promoted efforts to register voters at Trump’s high-octane rallies across the country, in addition to cross-referencing rally attendees with state voter rolls in search of potential new voters to target and register.

But these tactics are only a fraction of the modern presidential campaign toolbox and pale in comparison to what Clinton’s campaign has built, with dozens of offices in crucial battlegrounds and a sophisticated analytics operation comprising 60 staff members.

“Somehow trying to act like this is groundbreaking stuff? It’s crazy,” said another Republican strategist with extensive national campaign experience. Trump’s operation is “literally so far behind, it’s not funny. They’ve taken us back 40 years.”

i really think Trump is gonna lose by a lot more in the real election, and that if the aggregators miss, it will be in that direction (I didn't always feel this way tho)

here's one thing the aggregators don't really take into account

this is the nominal attraction of betting markets. they supposedly price that kind of information in.

that trump town hall answer about how he's going to change the post-college job market is like his entire campaign boiled down to a rancid lozenge
try to imagine showing that to anyone in 2014 and saying that's the Republican nominee; you'd be laughed out of the room

It's true, imagine finding ourselves here without being able to see the build up.

I think I saw Rancid Lozenge open for the Residents

more hillary signs in my neighborhood this week and a hillary supporter came to my door to interview me + get me to sign a pledge card to vote for her. i wanted to tell him he was wasting his time since i'm already a sure thing.

also like 1-2 anti-mcginty mailers coming each week now

I saw a Trump bumper sticker in my own neighborhood -- which is otherwise inundated with Clinton signs -- for the first time yesterday. It was on a car illegally parked on a residential street while the driver was looking through his phone. So, you know.

On my way into work this morning I passed the Cleveland State U. dorms and there were about four windows in a row covered in Trump signs.

I ran another red with my Clinton sticker yesterday. I never drive like this. I feel like I'm cursed!

http://fb.me/1rYPJ0RTV (Yoko Ono says she had an affair with Hillary in the 70s)

This is a hoax site right? Seen the first serious Dutch papers copyright this already

OK didnt even have to ask that q lol

http://theslot.jezebel.com/donald-trump-assumes-hell-be-alright-at-the-next-debate-1787527396

most signs are for clinton in my neighborhood but the people w/ trump signs have like 4 of them in their front yards

this hurts my feelings a little

same

my town is awash in Clinton yard signs, with more and more popping up each day.

I haven't received any mailings yet, here in Pgh, Mordy - in the primary, we must had gotten McGinty mailings every other day, it seemed.

trump: central park five still guilty

TOPICAL

Just a cool guy with cool opinions

I hope they sue the shit out of him.

does Trump maybe have a terminal illness that is going to cause him to expire in two weeks or so and this is his long-developing "fuck you" to the Nation?

^^^ was wondering exactly this

and though it seems heaven sent
we ain't ready to have a dead President

I hope they sue the shit out of him.

I don't. I hope, if asked about him, they each drop a Mariah Carey-level "I don't know him" and get on with rebuilding their lives that were nearly permanently destroyed.

more hillary signs in my neighborhood this week and a hillary supporter came to my door to interview me + get me to sign a pledge card to vote for her. i wanted to tell him he was wasting his time since i'm already a sure thing.

― Mordy, Friday, October 7, 2016 3:14 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ooooh a creepy loyalty pledge? weird.

yeah, lord knows they have bigger things to worry about.

I don't get having multiple signs for someone in your yard. is that like saying "my neighbor supports Hillary, but I mega-mega support her"?

ooooh a creepy loyalty pledge? weird.

― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, October 7, 2016 12:37 PM (forty-three seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is like SOP for any political campaign to get out the vote ime

I don't understand signs, bumper stickers, or enthusiasm.

the only 'stickers' I have are Orlando City Soccer magnets and an In Utero sticker that since fell apart

I know Im not throwing shade at hillary it just sounds weird to me.

also jfc I'm pretty sure some people are gonna get killed at the end of this election season.. there will be riots.

In a meeting with a border patrol union leader on Friday, Donald Trump claimed that the federal government is allowing undocumented immigrants to enter the country in order to vote in the upcoming presidential election.

“I’m sure you’re not going to write it,” Trump told reporters covering the meeting, according to a transcript posted by NBC’s Ali Vitali. “To me that’s— they’re letting people pour into the country so they can go vote.”

if Dems were capable and willing to fix an election, why the hell would they need Mexicans to do it

"we need to boost vote count, let's bring in some illegal immigrants and threaten to kill their family if they won't vote Hillary"

how can an illegal immigrant vote? has trump never voted and therefore doesn't know that they need to locate your name on the voter rolls before you're allowed to cast a ballot???

http://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-coordinated-on-clinton-email-issues-new-documents-show-1475798310

Can anyone make it past the paywall here

trump: central park five still guilty

yea I think it's about time we went to a "guilty even if proven innocent" system

xxpost it's always funny that GOPers (far from just Trump) simultaneously accuse the Dems of being incompetent and Machiavellian at the same time

Usual trick for WSJ - google the url - worked for me.

wonder how many people are going to learn about the Central Park Five and Trump's full page ad now

my God if this gets brought up at the town hall it'll be so glorious

"Hillary: I'm glad you brought that up. I invited all five of them here as guests tonight. Donald, they have a question for you."

^^^I wouldn't be surprised if something very close to that happened

altho if I were Hillary I'd be looking to shore up support from millenials (similar to how bringing in Machado played into her appeals to women and latinos). Is there some millenial cause celebre that Trump has totally fucked over?