Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

xp Yeah, they're a nervous system, not a brain.

that leap in full

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwVKrRxXcAIT3CL.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/Oog/status/794123066653741056

most MPs are in Leave areas.

Are they?

https://ig.ft.com/sites/elections/2016/uk/eu-referendum/

Good breakdown of results here. Most of England is leave

And Wales of course ...

Is that by parliamentary constituency though? I don't know, I'm only asking.

...I have no citations to hand but I remember soon after the vote reading something saying that if the votes had been added up by constituency like a general election it would have been even more strongly on the Leave side. I'll see if I can find it again

can't see anything good coming of a GE even if the above is wrong and even if the fixed term parliaments can be got past; there's nobody else to vote for and not even Scotland will save us from our horrible Tory Little Englander selves any more

Is that by parliamentary constituency though? I don't know, I'm only asking.

Sorry, no - it's by local authority.

I'd be shocked if, when broken down to constituencies, there was a significant swing to remain, though.

The best-case scenario here is a Brexit that will be less ruinously destructive than the one that appears to have been on the table since the Tory conference. I'm not convinced that MPs will approve any package that doesn't include membership of the single market for one thing (certainly not a lot of Tory Remainers). It means they can't just hammer together some kind of 'we're going to get an AMAZING DEAL!' leap-first-think-later Liam Fox hackjob and push it through regardless.

It also presumably has to get through the House of Lords, which is where the real fun starts. But I think the chances of Parliament nixing Brexit altogether are close to zero.

^^^ Yep - totally agree

It means they can't just hammer together some kind of 'we're going to get an AMAZING DEAL!' leap-first-think-later Liam Fox hackjob and push it through regardless.

an amazing deal of TITANIC proportions if you don't mind.

I think Brexit is really bad
so I want MPs who are against it to vote against it

if their constituencies are pro-Brexit -
1: that could change somewhat - we're always being told about buyers' remorse, etc
2: it wouldn't necessarily mean the MP would be voted out next time. But I admit it could be a huge rallying point for UKIP to attack MPs who have voted vs their constituents - so this could be a way for UKIP to revive or grow
3: still, MP elections are not single-issue -- I don't think someone will necessarily be rejected by the electorate on this one issue.

Utimately I think MPs should vote in the national interest and vote to stay in the EU, and if some of the public doesn't like it, so what, MPs often votes for things that lots of the public don't like. In this particular case the MPs know better, than some of the public.

Not saying all this going to happen. I'm sure what will happen is what people have said above.

If normal rules applied a GE would be a disaster. Not sure they do though.

In what sense?

I mean, I can't see Labour winning over anyone with their Brexit 'stance', whatever that actually is

Even if he does choose to try and vote down Brexit, Corbyn lacks the authority to whip his MPs over this issue. There are enough Legitimate Concerners in the Labour MP ranks to make a show of waving Brexit through, I suspect. This is a big dividing line down the middle of the PLP and it's going to blow up.

If normal rules applied a GE would be a disaster. Not sure they do though.

Struggling to think of any scenario in which it won't be a disaster.

Even if he does choose to try and vote down Brexit, Corbyn lacks the authority to whip his MPs over this issue.

Also need to consider that Corbyn / McDonell actually appear to want brexit ...

I think our democracy is more important than any notional national interest and Parliament should be compelled to follow the will of the people at all times. Also I feel toasty warm from bathing in the funeral inferno of this scumbag colonial micropower

Christ fucking help me, I'm nostalgic for John Major now.

I think our democracy is more important than any notional national interest and Parliament should be compelled to follow the will of the people at all times.

Hope you're stoked for voluntary repatriation and the return of hanging.

Ultimately democracy is nothing without transparency and that's been in extremely short supply lately.

As Thatcherite death-eaters go, he's pretty loveable and I'd take him as PM like a shot. Admittedly my feelings are largely based on his preponderance towards cricket xxp

Matt, Matt, it's me

lol

Lots of Remainers love a bit of One Nationism tbf

Fucking cricket people.

Ultimately democracy is nothing without transparency and that's been in extremely short supply lately.

ftfy

Ultimately democracy is nothing without transparency - wouldn't say that, could really go for a secret ballot about now.

Or rather democracy now* includes other actors absent transparency - when the tabloids have to announce how much their owners could make from the political decisions they're pushing then we'll talk.

*okay, "now"

as is often -- perhaps unsurprisingly -- the case with eu-related politics, the best (least-worst) can generally be attained by kicking all kinds of cans down the road

the corb-mconnell version of lexit doesn't actually require Art50 to be triggered in March (in fact it would certainly be better from the lexit-perspective to delay it, especially if they're serious about arguing for continued freedom of migration as a constituent part of lexit).

i have no idea if they recognise this -- tho they can hear as well as anyone the informed technocrats all screaming that they're going to need more time to make the best of the worst -- and i have no idea if they can find a way to whistle and dog their chaotic self-regarding yet self-loathing flock into the right pen, or even work out which the right pen is

what they can do lots of is scatter their opponents' sheep all over the hillside for the next few weeks (someway upthread we did see starmer and corb in step on this for a day or so)

In what sense?

In a few. The LibDems seem to be making gains that would have been impossible at the last GE, following Brexit. Labour is steadying, but could easily factionalise on a seat-by-seat basis at a GE. Tactical voting would be *massive*.

Probably most not-business-as-usual though are the Tories. The usual rule is that the Tories are always unified going into an election. If this is an election that's a proxy for "shall we leave?" then they will be again — they'll all be Leavers this time. But, if is more likely, all parties accept the will of the people that we're going to leave, then this becomes a referendum on "What does Brexit mean?", and the Tories will absolutely and immediately schism into a pro-business Single-Market-red-line faction (the larger one) and a damn-the-foreigners immigration uber alles nasty one.

John Curtice can probably work out what the result would be in that instance. I can't.

Good piece from Maugham here http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/11/03/2178734/after-the-high-courts-brexit-decision-forget-about-activating-article-50-in-march/

I honestly can't see the point of Corbyn if he's going to lean Brexit. I know, I know, I'm a Tory/Blairite/etc etc. But seriously.

The Lib Dem polling hasn't shifted an inch from 8%. The last prediction i saw today had them losing three seats rather than gaining any. That needs to be taken with a pinch of salt but i can't see much of a bounce happening at the moment.

https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/794148626805051392

Labour will be pressing the case for a Brexit that works for Britain, putting jobs, living standards and the economy first.

If that turns into a red-line on single market access, I think we'll have pro-business Tories voting for Labour or staying home — cf Republicans and Clinton.

Labour will be pressing the case for a Brexit that works for Britain, putting jobs, living standards and the economy first.

Stirring stuff ...

be interesting to see what happens to the ukip vote in the event of a GE. this ruling obviously plays right into their hands - meddling political classes scupper the people's brexit etc. i'd imagine their vote would go through the roof - but they're obviously completely dysfunctional as a party atm. if only they hadn't made such a bad fist of things lately

Farage will be officially leader again within days/weeks.

...I have no citations to hand but I remember soon after the vote reading something saying that if the votes had been added up by constituency like a general election it would have been even more strongly on the Leave side. I'll see if I can find it again

I found the article btw, it is here: https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed-in-the-next-election?utm_term=.cmy7bKvDV#.konVRDEbq
this page has a bit more about methodology: https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-how-did-westminster-constituencies-vote-283c85cd20e1#.kq728oqgd

admittedly 1. lol buzzfeed/medium.com and 2. as both articles admit there isn't a direct way to map the publicly available referendum vote statistics onto parliamentary constituencies, but I think it's fair to say it's not looking good

xps need to find a way to put "you voted to win back UK parliamentary sovereignty and now you don't like traditional UK parliamentary sovereignty lolwut" in more persuasive terms, though not sure any argument not involving Showing Them Forriners We'll Take Stuff Back Ra Ra Blighty Glorious Empire 1851 Forever can ever persuade a kipper

This has been rather overtaken by events but still:
https://www.ft.com/content/e72be378-a0ee-11e6-891e-abe238dee8e2

Pasha Khandaker, president of the Bangladesh Caterers Association, who campaigned heavily for a Leave vote, said he was “very disappointed” by the government’s determination to slash immigration ...
“My organisation supported Brexit for several reasons but the main reason was to bring people from abroad to help our industry to survive.”
...
The official Leave campaign even sent leaflets to Muslim communities arguing that Brexit could allow more incomers from Commonwealth countries to take the place of eastern European migrants.

Vote for anti-immigration scaremongers, be surprised when you end up with anti-immigration scaremongers

I'm not sure labour would, in case of a GE, focus on pro or anti. People hate elections, and the complete mess the Tories have made of this could be influential. And regardless of any mind reading of Corbyn, I expect the Labour Party to be firmly pro remain. For the same reason I was - jobs, wages, rights.

The quote above, "Labour will be pressing the case for a Brexit..." was signed Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour Party.

Hey, at least we're now going to get a clearer idea of how many Leavers were using 'sovereignty' to mean 'keep johnny foreigner out' ...

“My organisation supported Brexit for several reasons but the main reason was to bring people from abroad to help our industry to survive.”

Just... LOL? I don't know. 2016 has rewired my emotions.

X post: Yeah - there's no way I can see Labour trying to reverse Brexit now. Too many MPs whose constituents voted leave for one thing

Labour (or failing that the SNP) should be hammering at the shaky claim of a "mandate" every time it gets trotted out and every time it gets shakier.

Like the party piece of Cameron at the leader's debate where he claimed that he carried Liam Byrne's "No money left" around with him everywhere, as justification for what had to be done - I thought that Ed M lost a trick by not responding "Well, that makes you look like a psychopath, mate"

Is there really still a majority who want Brexit or is that now-diminished demographic just louder and more threat-y than Remainers?

“My organisation supported Brexit for several reasons but the main reason was to bring people from abroad to help our industry to survive.”

This is obviously naive but completely understandable.

Everyone who isn't completely naive knows what happens when "control" is taken back. The drums start beating for ever lower net migration numbers, and if those can't be achieved, then any assurances the EU receives about the status of EU citizens already in the country won't mean shit, and the demands will grow for non-EU migrants to leave as well. Unless there's a major political sea-change (and I wouldn't rule that out in the event of an economic disaster) then I don't feel optimistic at all about where this is all heading.

Any Labour MP who enables this bullshit is essentially validating May's approach, however much they try and dress it up otherwise, and they will be as guilty as anyone for whatever happens next.