Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

I don't see why Matt DC thinks he should be so beatable -- I would think him harder to beat than Farage, in those 'Labour heartland' targets.

"he will sound more pro-NHS" -- in the past he has explicitly argued that the nhs be wound up, tho he seems to be deleting tweets that state this

xpost

he will sound more pro-NHS

The Labour Party are already attacking Nuttall for giving a speech in favour of more Privatisation within the NHS.

He's very much from the right wing headbanger wing of UKIP.

Yep - and he's openly religious (Catholic) too

plus there's the "bad bootle ukip meff" effect

FWIW I think he's a good choice by UKIP. A 'strong man' leader, who will pick up plenty of northern Labour voters. Worrying.

The Tories will be delighted.

What is the other wing of UKIP?

I'm not saying he'll be easy to beat, but if the political establishment is really that vulnerable to a bald pro-privatisation neo-fascist, or can't find a way to defend itself against one, then we urgently need to get a new political establishment.

There's not many of them left now, the Diane James/Douglas Carswell "see, we're not right wing headbangers, we're quite nice and middle class" wing.

there's a good piece here by alex harrowell on the social-political make-up of UKIP: http://www.harrowell.org.uk/blog/2014/05/23/not-two-ukips-three-ukips/

it's two years old and, well, A LOT'S HAPPENED SINCE THEN, but i doubt this basic make-up has shifted much except in proportion (bonus early flag for the quality of stephen bush's work)

Daily Record today had "As Nuttall as a Fruitcake" today. Come on, thy can do better than that! (I know, it's the Record)

If Labour can't find a way to beat this guy then they should deselect every single sitting MP and just start again.

― Matt DC, Tuesday, November 29, 2016 10:39 AM (forty-four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ftfy

I don't think Nuttall's evident schtick is 'right wing' -- I think it's 'bluff Northern working class' -- perhaps covering up the extent of the right-wing interior.

"fake bluff Northern working class" as lapped up by metropolitan centrists to sneer at or panic about

the bootle meff incident demonstrates his cage is fairly easily rattled -- it was his response that turned it into a thing -- and that (not terribly surprisingly) actual real northerners see thru the shtick reasonably effectively

I don't know what this Bootle meff thing is ! :O

pvmic

UKIP was only able to win one seat at the last election, when they were leaded by the infinitely more media-friendly Farage and the party had a concrete goal in mind. With that goal now essentially achieved, they only have two real options - one is to maintain the pressure on the govt to actually see Brexit through, after which they might as well cease to exist. The other is to just transform into an explicit anti-immigration party, if they haven't already/

They got a substantial share of the vote in the North of England but weren't able to win any seats from a pro-European Labour Party run by the Jewish (and therefore dog-whistle un-British) Ed Miliband. If they win multiple Northern seats next time round then one of two things will have happened - either Corbyn's leadership will have been so disastrous that he has effectively opened the door to the Far Right, or anti-immigration hysteria will have reached such a peak that we are essentially seeing the rise of fascism in this country. Or both at the same time.

It strikes me that UKIP presents more of a danger to Labour in Midlands marginals, where it could eat into enough of their vote to deliver even more seats to the Tories. But a lot of Brexiters will swing behind the Tories anyway unless something big happens in the next four years.

sorry PF i was going to link but ppl had talked abt it in thread so i assumed everyone was up to speed: http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/ukip-mep-paul-nuttall-brands-8505324

They came 2nd in about 40% of their constituencies (120!) last year - though as Matt says that's hopefully a high-water mark.

Yeah I thought the UKIP vote was huge in 2015 - about as many as the SNP & LDs combined - and the Brexit success only adds to the sense of critical mass, and the prospect of clear results and change will be tempting while the rest of the political landscape remains fractured and confused

how do you confront it electorally tho? more talk about people's legitimate concerns? a new cuddly "right-wing-economics-with-a-welcoming-pat-on-the-head-for-immigrants" coalition/party?

most of the counter proposals are basically "we must cling harder to the status quo" which y'know, maybe, arguably, maybe, possibly, led us to this mess in the first place

"the Brexit success only adds to the sense of critical mass"

momentum*-in-the-narrative is an argument that media makes re increased coverage, not an argument voters ever actually make -- in reality, the success in turning brexit into the default position of both the major parties undermines ukip's vote-share, unless (as matt notes) it can refashion itself into a purely xenophobic party

meanwhile in the world of actual real economics and labour patterns: "UK farmers warn of Brexit-triggered labour crisis":
https://www.ft.com/content/7ceb876c-b58d-11e6-961e-a1acd97f622d

*not that momentum

what arguments do voters make? people don't like to feel they've thrown their vote away so the fact that UKIP got so many votes as parliamentary outsiders is pretty astonishing. the successes aren't decisive or established enough to appease people yet (especially given that there was no one clear thing people were even voting for). I'll believe the disquiet is on the verge of dissipating & standard two party politics is to be resumed when the headlines change

i guess "adds to the sense of critical mass" may translate into something like "a rush and a push and the land is ours"

i agree that (for some), the increased uncertainty post-vote is very likely encouraging a feeling of "just one more rush & push and no more bengalis in platforms [insert disliked aspect of modern life]"

but -- within that same voting collective -- every step towards local shutdown (nissan in sunderland, fruit rotting in the fields of the garden of england [see link above], stresses on tourism in conrwall and wales) is pulling the collective in several directions

i don't think we're ever going to return to standard two-party politics, or (in the medium term) a sense of easy-reach calm

But even supposing the Labour Party decided to pander to the anti-immigration crowd, they can't out pander them. They will always offer more restrictions than the LP do - if the LP promise to cut immigration the right will promise to eliminate it it. If the LP promises to eliminate immigration they will promise to eradicate the asylum system etc. 'What is morally unconscionable is always electorally unfeasible' or something like that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/kate-bush-theresa-may-wonderful-best-thing-happened-us-long/

who'd have guessed that a wealthy rock star would be a Tory?

I'm choosing to believe that she isn't and that she's just trotting out that moronic victory-for-feminism line.

Doesn't seem that likely, bearing in mind she was an adult all throughout the Thatcher era.

doesn't really belong on the brexit thread

take it here: theresa may: is her project subtly machiavellian or merely cunning, baldrick-style?

LOL Kate Bush, she's not perfect after all, ILX.

Aw, that saddens me. Especially with a kid with special needs - it would be terrible to leave such cases to the private sector.

*shrug* I still love Ezra Pound's poetry, I think I can get thru this

She's from Bexleyheath, even the urban foxes are tory round there

2015 was a tough year for this A Lloyd Webber fan, never want to go through that kind of internal conflict again :p

im shocked that a middle-class english musician who makes progressive rock could be a conservative.

have your barf bags at the ready:

https://twitter.com/ProgressOnline/status/803684565621600256

Now I don't normally advocate shooting people in the face but

First comment is mint tho

Hah, that's a friend of mine (er, unless twitter is being tricky - Brevor Tastard?)

Haha I was just coming to post that Progress tweet. Special circle of Hell just for those cunts.

Reading that tweet on my desktop computer and seeing down the side bar the little info bit for Progress's twitter account and just thinking to myself "what in the name of fuck is wrong with you bastarts?":

Progress, Labour's new mainstream, is an organisation of Labour party members which aims to promote a radical&progressive politics

John McTernan otm, somehow

https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/803711188257247232

quite a few of the hardcore progress/blarite types seem uncomfortable with the anti-immigration/blue labour rhetoric, the other day I saw Spencer Livermore of all people, praising Diane Abbott for an article defending free movement. Abbott really is doing god's work by standing firm on this issue against the vast majority of the PLP (and quite a few of the people on team Corbyn afaict?)

The word progressive is completely fucking meaningless at this stage, although I could imagine that tweet coming from Eric Clapton.

Its like someone looked at the UKIP leadership results and the guff spouted about how UKIP could fuck Labour and believed every word of it, then had a full day and drafted the tweet about 15 times before posting it.

and had zero idea of what "assimilation" has historically meant in this discussion

it turns out that Kinnock had lots of bad opinions at this event:

ProgressOnline ‏@ProgressOnline
.@SKinnock 2008 changed everything ... Labour must take responsbility for the drift that lead to the rise in authoritarianism.

ProgressOnline ‏@ProgressOnline
.@SKinnock Nobody on the doorstep listens to me when I say, 'think about the economic benefits of immigration'

ProgressOnline ‏@ProgressOnline
.@SKinnock Labour has to reassure the British people that we understand and respect their desire for control over immigration.

ProgressOnline ‏@ProgressOnline
.@SKinnock We must recalibrate our approach on immigration and talk, as patriots, about what unites us, not what divides us.