Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

We're going to end up with a tariff-based economic system with key strategic companies/industries propped up with sweeteners and central government subsidies. Is this really what the Conservatives wanted to end up with 35 or so years after Thatcher?

Also had Corbyn, who has presumably had weeks to prepare for today, said anything in response yet?

xp

not the Thatcherites/Libertarians/Friedmanites, but they're not running the show any more, and the racist Little Englander wing that never went away is in charge as long as Theresa May thinks she needs them

"Theresa May has made clear that she is determined to use Brexit to turn Britain into a bargain basement tax haven on the shores of Europe. She makes out this is a negotiating threat to the 27 EU countries but it's actually a threat to the British people's jobs, services and living standards.

“We welcome that the Prime Minister has listened to the case we've been making about the need for full tariff free access to the single market but are deeply concerned about her reckless approach to achieving it.

“This speech should have been given in Parliament where MPs could ask her questions on behalf of their constituents. She talks about Brexit restoring parliamentary sovereignty but, once again, she is determined to avoid real scrutiny of her plans."

(xp to matt)

lol matt dc angling for a gig at the new wasteman or something

Wait what?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-uk-will-leave-eu-regardless-of-parliament-vote-theresa-may-a7531656.html

This can't be true, right? That's effectively forcing Parliament to wave the deal through no matter how bad it is.

I mean I'm guessing that's a heavy spin put on that "source" quote, but who even knows any more.

tbf those concerns are more likely to be anti-Brexit than pro. Unfortunate choice of words perhaps? Not the same "legitimate concerns".

Yeah, that was why I quoted them: thought it was funny to see the cliche turned against Brexit.

That's effectively forcing Parliament to wave the deal through no matter how bad it is.

I think this was always the case, in truth. I can't see how anyone (the government or the EU) could be forced back to the negotiating table by Parliament. The choice would potentially be to back the deal on the table or reject it, with rejection meaning leaving with no deal rather than staying.

of course, the only vote that matters is if there's a vote on triggering A50. once triggered I would assume there are no backsies.

Or rejection meaning another vote. So much hangs or revocability of a50 xp

So what Labour does or says basically doesn't matter for anything other than their electoral positioning in 2020? ie there's no way they could make single market membership a red line in terms of their support, even if they were minded to? Unless there's a vote on Article 50, and I've completely lost track of what's happening there.

We're waiting on Supreme Court there still.

Tim Farron is getting roasted on Twitter by leavers. Who couldn't give a shit about Corbyn. Is this going to give them legitimacy as opposition? I'm started to wonder what form the mechanism to sunset Labour will take.

So what Labour does or says basically doesn't matter for anything other than their electoral positioning in 2020? ie there's no way they could make single market membership a red line in terms of their support, even if they were minded to? Unless there's a vote on Article 50, and I've completely lost track of what's happening there.

good contribution from me there i know, cheers

@paulmasonnews

(10/10) Brits: get ready to Rise Like Lions - if May loses on the final Brexit terms in the Commons she must go. End of.

#theresistance

"I am equally clear that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain."

...

Tbh I don't think at this point in time it would be very sane for any political party to nail itself to the cross of resisting Brexit. Let the story play itself thru, draw attention to the Tories' failings in UK terms, come back much later when (if) the tide of opinion swells back in a more decisive direction

Don't expect people not to laugh if you ask them to Rise Like Lions for a set of trade agreements

Don't think the LDs have much to lose though, do they?

Well yeah, that's a perennial given

Corbyn’s speech prompted charges he was “pandering to racism”. This betrays a profound misunderstanding of what drives opposition to free movement among progressive, left-minded people in the communities where Labour is rooted. Free movement does not just suppress wage growth at the low end. It says to people with strong cultural traditions, a strong sense of place and community (sometimes all they have left from the industrial era) that “your past does not matter”. It promotes the ideal worker as a rootless person with no attachment to place or community, and with limited political rights; whose citizenship resides in their ability to work alone. In case you haven’t noticed, shouting, “Don’t be racist!” at the Labour voters who backed Brexit, isn’t working. That’s because most of them are not racist.

everyone goes ukip in the end then

paul mason is a total cunt.

glasgow is a very white and culturally homogenous city where the majority of people you speak to speak in a glasgow accent, have left-wing politics, have ties to the city spanning generations, and feel particularly connected to a sense of glaswegian identity - quite often eclipsing any sense of scottish or british identity. 2/3 of the city's voters voted remain.

The Lib Dems are the party with a major grievance to exploit and a fairly clear playing field to do so, but their voter base is not Labour's and in any case their brand may be so trashed post-coalition that it'll make no difference.

Suspect that UKIP are the big losers from today, in pure electoral terms if nothing else.

glasgow is a very white and culturally homogenous city where the majority of people you speak to speak in a glasgow accent, have left-wing politics, have ties to the city spanning generations, and feel particularly connected to a sense of glaswegian identity - quite often eclipsing any sense of scottish or british identity. 2/3 of the city's voters voted remain.

Only some working class people matter though.

The owners of farms will be anti-brexit - the workers who see none of the benefit (at least explicitly) won't be.

makes sense, but does not explain the giant Leave banners on every field pre-referendum

unless they just wanted to put up their right-wing union flag look-how-big-my-field-is bragging banners as they do before every election without thinking anyone might dare to take their subsidies away

The choice would potentially be to back the deal on the table or reject it, with rejection meaning leaving with no deal rather than staying.

accept the deal which will probably be 99% equivalent to no deal, or leave with no deal. hurrah

Only some working class people matter though.

only retired baby boomers matter, whinging in their mortgage-paid-off 3-spare-bedroom houses about being "left behind" by "metropolitan elites". who will matter once the baby boomers die out? dunno but I expect they will have Legitimate Concerns while having enough spare cash or not having enough grasp of cause and effect to hold Tories/Brexiters to account for austerity multiplied by a crashing pound

sorry I don't have anything insightful to say but fuck this country and its government tbh

This is on Brexit & NI

Paul Mason can't even link his tweets - state of the man

some futurist

pm-2020

Not even sure there is a way out but could Parliament force the government to take a more reasonable positon before Article 50 is triggered? I saw something like no white paper will be produced but really MPs need to force them on this. Parliament need to scrutinise the Government's postion in detail. Someone needs to come up with a set of checks and balances - nothing like this will happen but y'know.

Also could Scotland force the Government's hand? I just find there are weaknesses in May's position, a lot of pre-negotiation talk bluster on a slim majority, and the outcomes of a hard-Brexit are potentially suicidal for the Conservatives (whatever the state of the Labour Party) and the country.

Also, by going on about hard Brexit and the government we do forget the EU is on the other side - talking about 'fuck it we'll become a tax heaven' or whatever is just childish. They've forgotten to be technocrats.

of course after my little Brexit breakdown up there I concede Stephen Bush has a point: https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/821433144415031298

on NI, opinion pollsters LucidTalk had a PDF out recently which included the stat that 8% of Unionists (!) would "consider" Irish reunification in the event of Brexit. not sure about methodology or reliability or anything (the PDF is a little less than professionally presented) so mainly presenting for lols tbh

and this was an interestingish article in the Belfast Telegraph:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/northern-ireland-election-could-become-rerun-of-the-eu-referendum-35369244.html

suspect anecdotal Arlene-deserting DUP voters are as illusory as the Lifelong Republican But Not Trump voters turned out to be, but there are interesting times in NI politics ahead either way I fear

This is p/good: https://medium.com/@greenslade/labour-is-in-a-jam-and-this-time-its-not-corbyn-s-fault-cdeca2a139c5#.wu9nypni3

Worst case is 10+ years of struggle, after the previous 10 years of struggle, meaning a whole generation will hit its mid-30s to 40s without ever experiencing what a British economy that wasn’t fatally wounded by government mismanagement looked like.

The days of boom and bust looking pretty good rn tbh

our side should hold a quick eirexit poll and simply swap out any of ours looking to leave with anyone up north looking to stay

According to the relevant EU regulations once A50 is triggered (by the UK informing the EU of its desire to leave) the UK will leave the EU in two years. The only way this could be stopped or the timeline lengthened would be if the EU states unanimously voted to extend the process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHFp3-qE_T8

But you see we don't listen to experts any more

Remind me again why the UK doesn't pursue membership in EFTA?

Oxford professor, what does she know?

Tracer, because you have to allow dirty foreigners into your country to be an EFTA member and everyone knows that goes against the people's number one priority.

We are not Switzerland, look at all the pink on this map from 1923.

Presumably there's nothing to stop the UK applying for single market membership later down the line? ie after the almost inevitable economic clusterfuck, once peak Brexit hubris is over and voter sentiment has changed?

by which point presumably we'll have a piss-weak case for joining back up

And we'll have pissed everyone off even more by having tried to become a dingy cut-price tax haven in the meantime.

stoked for the madness