Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

of course after my little Brexit breakdown up there I concede Stephen Bush has a point: https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/821433144415031298

on NI, opinion pollsters LucidTalk had a PDF out recently which included the stat that 8% of Unionists (!) would "consider" Irish reunification in the event of Brexit. not sure about methodology or reliability or anything (the PDF is a little less than professionally presented) so mainly presenting for lols tbh

and this was an interestingish article in the Belfast Telegraph:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/northern-ireland-election-could-become-rerun-of-the-eu-referendum-35369244.html

suspect anecdotal Arlene-deserting DUP voters are as illusory as the Lifelong Republican But Not Trump voters turned out to be, but there are interesting times in NI politics ahead either way I fear

This is p/good: https://medium.com/@greenslade/labour-is-in-a-jam-and-this-time-its-not-corbyn-s-fault-cdeca2a139c5#.wu9nypni3

Worst case is 10+ years of struggle, after the previous 10 years of struggle, meaning a whole generation will hit its mid-30s to 40s without ever experiencing what a British economy that wasn’t fatally wounded by government mismanagement looked like.

The days of boom and bust looking pretty good rn tbh

our side should hold a quick eirexit poll and simply swap out any of ours looking to leave with anyone up north looking to stay

According to the relevant EU regulations once A50 is triggered (by the UK informing the EU of its desire to leave) the UK will leave the EU in two years. The only way this could be stopped or the timeline lengthened would be if the EU states unanimously voted to extend the process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHFp3-qE_T8

But you see we don't listen to experts any more

Remind me again why the UK doesn't pursue membership in EFTA?

Oxford professor, what does she know?

Tracer, because you have to allow dirty foreigners into your country to be an EFTA member and everyone knows that goes against the people's number one priority.

We are not Switzerland, look at all the pink on this map from 1923.

Presumably there's nothing to stop the UK applying for single market membership later down the line? ie after the almost inevitable economic clusterfuck, once peak Brexit hubris is over and voter sentiment has changed?

by which point presumably we'll have a piss-weak case for joining back up

And we'll have pissed everyone off even more by having tried to become a dingy cut-price tax haven in the meantime.

stoked for the madness

Also could Scotland force the Government's hand? I just find there are weaknesses in May's position, a lot of pre-negotiation talk bluster on a slim majority, and the outcomes of a hard-Brexit are potentially suicidal for the Conservatives (whatever the state of the Labour Party) and the country.

her position is still entirely weak have-cake-and-eat-it shit but I can't see how she gets around either the Scotland or Ireland question. She says she's committed to the open Irish border but this is completely incompatible with hard Brexit.

It's sad that Parliament will actually have a say on how this shitshow will unfold but no one thinks it'll make a bit of difference

Labour has to come up with its own “red lines” on Brexit, and promise that they will not vote through any Brexit Act that does not meet them. That’s a de facto “we’ll vote no” because there’s no way May is going to deliver on anything non-awful.

this is bang on but I feel this weird dread that Labour will do nothing of the sort

"it seems absolutely incredible to me that in the 21st century member states of the EU should be seriously contemplating the reintroduction of tariffs or whatever to administer punishment to the UK"

Boris Johnson, who went on to accuse them of wanting to "administer punishment beatings" "in the manner of some world war two movie"

Was he then heard to mumble something about 'one World Cup'?

She says she's committed to the open Irish border but this is completely incompatible with hard Brexit.

There was some talk about strengthening Irish immigration at ports & airports, but it turns out that most of that talk was from the NI secretary James Brokenshire* and not so much from Ireland.

*still can't believe this is an actual name, much less the name of the SSNI

It seems absolutely incredible to me that in the 21st century my gym should be seriously contemplating not letting me use their equipment or whatever to administer punishment to me for cancelling my membership.

The best case scenario is that she's setting out an unachievable stall so that the compromises, when they inevitably occur, don't seem so bad. But she'll be slaughtered from the right whatever happens.

Trying to think what the landscape is going to look like in ten years. By that stage they're likely to be trudging through a lame-duck final term that will make Major/Brown look like Blair in 97.

Nuttall is standing in Stoke.

There was some talk about strengthening Irish immigration at ports & airports, but it turns out that most of that talk was from the NI secretary James Brokenshire* and not so much from Ireland.

I think the only workable thing would be:

Keep the border open
Maintain a free-movement position for Irish citizens
Impose stronger border checks for travel between NI and the rest of the UK
Make life next to impossible for EU citizens who are in NI 'illicitly'

In theory, if you're Czech you might technically be able to travel from Leitrim to Fermanagh but any benefit from doing so other than no longer being in Leitrim would vanish.

The last point is going to, surely, be essential to any post-immigration Brexit position. EU migrants, including those already here, will need work permits / documented leave to remain and then have to show that documentation every time they want to access employment, housing, the NHS, public services, etc.

in further irony brokenshire was security and immigration previously and looks like a photofit of a benelux eu commissioner

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/James_Brokenshire_2015.jpg/220px-James_Brokenshire_2015.jpg

otm.

The last point is going to, surely, be essential to any post-immigration Brexit position. EU migrants, including those already here, will need work permits / documented leave to remain and then have to show that documentation every time they want to access employment, housing, the NHS, public services, etc.

The miserable thing about that is it means *everybody* has to show documentation when they want those things. And passports ain't free.

I mean that's not the only miserable thing about it, but y'know

A national ID card would probably sail through these days. The quaint objections to Labour authoritarianism that killed it off last time seem a hundred years ago.

Landlords, doctors, etc are already being asked to act as immigration enforcement agents with non-EU migrants. I think most English-accented white people will be generally ok but can definitely see a reluctance on the part of the private sector to employ / rent to anyone else without a huge amount of scrutiny given that they'll be the ones facing the risk of reprisals for non-compliance.

Impose stronger border checks for travel between NI and the rest of the UK

They'd love that in Norn Iron.

Yeah I don't know what %age of people in e.g. Easterhouse have passports. A huge number of them can't afford the bus fair into Glasgow centre.

X posts.

it's fine, i'm sure the government wouldn't want to cut the most marginalised people in society out of access to healthcarem, voting etc and so will find a simple, affordable way around any potential issues

On Theresa May's Brexit plan:
Good for Britain: 55%
Bad for Britain: 19%
(via YouGov)

Perceptions on who needs who more:
UK needs EU more: 19%
EU needs UK more: 34%
Need each other equally: 28%
(via YouGov)

YouGov is obviously terrible but these results are still O_o

i can't even.. what?

With a fawning media, lack of effective opposition and a general "just get on with it" attitude even among some Remainers that's not especially surprising.

Today's Guardian was suggested that Labour MPs in Remain constituencies - including close Corbyn loyalists - are planning on defying the Whip if it goes to a vote. Certainly got the sense that one of the quotes came from Diane Abbott.

Not Kate Hoey.

the wiff waff blitz spirit has done wonders for national morale bring on the world war 2 movie punishment beatings

even taking that poll with the requisite amount of yougov-related skepticism, the idea that support for brexit might not have just remained steady but actually increased despite the government's panicked flailing since the referendum is... troubling

Nearly all the papers have spent the entire time since the referendum telling people how right they were and how fantastic Brexit is going to be; insisting that the plunging pound is just proof that everything's going to plan. There are very few credible voices pointing out the looming disaster, and those that are get very short shrift from the majority of the media.

Life inside the Brexit bubble is pretty good rn I think. No wonder they're delighted when the PM gives a big speech describing a very tasty cake and telling them how delicious it will be.

I'm genuinely worried just how toxic the "of course Brexit was a good idea and it would have worked if only those Europeans hadn't PUNISHED US" backlash will be; especially if there's someone there to capitalise on it. Conflicts have started on much less.

i was just typing something to that effect about the reality-warping brexiteers will have to perform once the real slide into the shit begins and what the side-effects of that might be

brb gonna build an air-raid shelter and stock it with weapons and non-perishable goods

Re: The Sun reprising the Kinnock lightbulb front page, has no one reminded them that it ushered in a disastrous Major administration that they spent five years shitting on?

Basically, don't every expect them to admit they were wrong, even in the face of disaster.

it's the sun wot wons it wen it's won and not the sun wot don't wons it wen it's not won

it's fairly predictable but also disturbing, the extent to which the tories are comparing this to a war. it says a lot about the world that you can wage a recession in the same way as a war, like an economic war, in the same way a politician might traditionally have galvanised a country by violent conflict.

as stet says, you kind of feel the pain and anger that's going to be left around europe, especially if the eu were to break up, is exactly the right kind of climate for war. plus you look at this dire, lame duck tory party who have a mandate by default, and it's hard to see a line they wouldn't cross to stop being undercut from the right.

That Sun page was a troll; their actual was much more staid. Which makes sense -- no way do they want to tell their readers that Europe is laughing at them

those terrifying yougov numbers seem like an extension of anti-elite, anti-expert feeling to me. This is something I've noticed about Theresa May's few speeches since becoming PM - she never calls on expert or statistical evidence, rarely if ever cites numbers, but she absolutely nails what a specific mindset wants to hear emotionally. I mean to us it sounds like jingoistic waffle and have-cake-eat-it nonsense but it's not our emotional buttons she wants to press.

I am not very far into this but it feels related! https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/crisis-of-statistics-big-data-democracy

(The irony is ofc that statistics have absolutely been used to manipulate the public discourse by elites for years, so the suspicion is not actually unfounded - it's just gone to the other extreme)

*gulp*

There could be a one in three chance that Brexit negotiations will end with no deal between the UK and the European Union, resulting in "serious economic disruption and a degree of legal chaos", the author of Article 50 has warned.

Lord Kerr also suggested that leaving the EU could result in a "decade of delay and disruption" for Britain, which would damage investment, economic growth and employment.

The former diplomat, who negotiated European deals for both Margaret Thatcher and John Major, made the comments as he considered a number of possible outcomes for the UK following the vote to leave in 2016

Lord Kerr, who has served as UK ambassador to both the EU and the US, warned if no agreement was reached on the terms of Brexit, and no extension to the talks was agreed, the UK would have to leave the EU anyway.

Reports have suggested the UK could be presented with a "divorce bill" by the European Commission which could be as much as £50 billion to £60 billion.

Going on to outline some of the possible outcomes from Brexit, Lord Kerr said there was about a 25 per cent probability the UK will leave Europe in 2019 with an agreed Article 50 financial settlement , a "substantive framework" setting out future relationships and a "degree of progress on the trade negotiations Mrs May says she want".

There is about the same chance the UK will leave in 2019 but with only a "thin framework and not much progress made on trade", he said.

He also warned that talks with the dozens of nations the EU has trade agreements with would not be able to take place until the Brexit process has been completed, telling the audience: "We can expect, I'm afraid, a decade of delay and disruption with investment, economic growth and employment lower than they would have been."

lex otm re: may's conspicuous and alarming lack of evidence every time she talks about brexit