Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

by which point presumably we'll have a piss-weak case for joining back up

And we'll have pissed everyone off even more by having tried to become a dingy cut-price tax haven in the meantime.

stoked for the madness

Also could Scotland force the Government's hand? I just find there are weaknesses in May's position, a lot of pre-negotiation talk bluster on a slim majority, and the outcomes of a hard-Brexit are potentially suicidal for the Conservatives (whatever the state of the Labour Party) and the country.

her position is still entirely weak have-cake-and-eat-it shit but I can't see how she gets around either the Scotland or Ireland question. She says she's committed to the open Irish border but this is completely incompatible with hard Brexit.

It's sad that Parliament will actually have a say on how this shitshow will unfold but no one thinks it'll make a bit of difference

Labour has to come up with its own “red lines” on Brexit, and promise that they will not vote through any Brexit Act that does not meet them. That’s a de facto “we’ll vote no” because there’s no way May is going to deliver on anything non-awful.

this is bang on but I feel this weird dread that Labour will do nothing of the sort

"it seems absolutely incredible to me that in the 21st century member states of the EU should be seriously contemplating the reintroduction of tariffs or whatever to administer punishment to the UK"

Boris Johnson, who went on to accuse them of wanting to "administer punishment beatings" "in the manner of some world war two movie"

Was he then heard to mumble something about 'one World Cup'?

She says she's committed to the open Irish border but this is completely incompatible with hard Brexit.

There was some talk about strengthening Irish immigration at ports & airports, but it turns out that most of that talk was from the NI secretary James Brokenshire* and not so much from Ireland.

*still can't believe this is an actual name, much less the name of the SSNI

It seems absolutely incredible to me that in the 21st century my gym should be seriously contemplating not letting me use their equipment or whatever to administer punishment to me for cancelling my membership.

The best case scenario is that she's setting out an unachievable stall so that the compromises, when they inevitably occur, don't seem so bad. But she'll be slaughtered from the right whatever happens.

Trying to think what the landscape is going to look like in ten years. By that stage they're likely to be trudging through a lame-duck final term that will make Major/Brown look like Blair in 97.

Nuttall is standing in Stoke.

There was some talk about strengthening Irish immigration at ports & airports, but it turns out that most of that talk was from the NI secretary James Brokenshire* and not so much from Ireland.

I think the only workable thing would be:

Keep the border open
Maintain a free-movement position for Irish citizens
Impose stronger border checks for travel between NI and the rest of the UK
Make life next to impossible for EU citizens who are in NI 'illicitly'

In theory, if you're Czech you might technically be able to travel from Leitrim to Fermanagh but any benefit from doing so other than no longer being in Leitrim would vanish.

The last point is going to, surely, be essential to any post-immigration Brexit position. EU migrants, including those already here, will need work permits / documented leave to remain and then have to show that documentation every time they want to access employment, housing, the NHS, public services, etc.

in further irony brokenshire was security and immigration previously and looks like a photofit of a benelux eu commissioner

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/James_Brokenshire_2015.jpg/220px-James_Brokenshire_2015.jpg

otm.

The last point is going to, surely, be essential to any post-immigration Brexit position. EU migrants, including those already here, will need work permits / documented leave to remain and then have to show that documentation every time they want to access employment, housing, the NHS, public services, etc.

The miserable thing about that is it means *everybody* has to show documentation when they want those things. And passports ain't free.

I mean that's not the only miserable thing about it, but y'know

A national ID card would probably sail through these days. The quaint objections to Labour authoritarianism that killed it off last time seem a hundred years ago.

Landlords, doctors, etc are already being asked to act as immigration enforcement agents with non-EU migrants. I think most English-accented white people will be generally ok but can definitely see a reluctance on the part of the private sector to employ / rent to anyone else without a huge amount of scrutiny given that they'll be the ones facing the risk of reprisals for non-compliance.

Impose stronger border checks for travel between NI and the rest of the UK

They'd love that in Norn Iron.

Yeah I don't know what %age of people in e.g. Easterhouse have passports. A huge number of them can't afford the bus fair into Glasgow centre.

X posts.

it's fine, i'm sure the government wouldn't want to cut the most marginalised people in society out of access to healthcarem, voting etc and so will find a simple, affordable way around any potential issues

On Theresa May's Brexit plan:
Good for Britain: 55%
Bad for Britain: 19%
(via YouGov)

Perceptions on who needs who more:
UK needs EU more: 19%
EU needs UK more: 34%
Need each other equally: 28%
(via YouGov)

YouGov is obviously terrible but these results are still O_o

i can't even.. what?

With a fawning media, lack of effective opposition and a general "just get on with it" attitude even among some Remainers that's not especially surprising.

Today's Guardian was suggested that Labour MPs in Remain constituencies - including close Corbyn loyalists - are planning on defying the Whip if it goes to a vote. Certainly got the sense that one of the quotes came from Diane Abbott.

Not Kate Hoey.

the wiff waff blitz spirit has done wonders for national morale bring on the world war 2 movie punishment beatings

even taking that poll with the requisite amount of yougov-related skepticism, the idea that support for brexit might not have just remained steady but actually increased despite the government's panicked flailing since the referendum is... troubling

Nearly all the papers have spent the entire time since the referendum telling people how right they were and how fantastic Brexit is going to be; insisting that the plunging pound is just proof that everything's going to plan. There are very few credible voices pointing out the looming disaster, and those that are get very short shrift from the majority of the media.

Life inside the Brexit bubble is pretty good rn I think. No wonder they're delighted when the PM gives a big speech describing a very tasty cake and telling them how delicious it will be.

I'm genuinely worried just how toxic the "of course Brexit was a good idea and it would have worked if only those Europeans hadn't PUNISHED US" backlash will be; especially if there's someone there to capitalise on it. Conflicts have started on much less.

i was just typing something to that effect about the reality-warping brexiteers will have to perform once the real slide into the shit begins and what the side-effects of that might be

brb gonna build an air-raid shelter and stock it with weapons and non-perishable goods

Re: The Sun reprising the Kinnock lightbulb front page, has no one reminded them that it ushered in a disastrous Major administration that they spent five years shitting on?

Basically, don't every expect them to admit they were wrong, even in the face of disaster.

it's the sun wot wons it wen it's won and not the sun wot don't wons it wen it's not won

it's fairly predictable but also disturbing, the extent to which the tories are comparing this to a war. it says a lot about the world that you can wage a recession in the same way as a war, like an economic war, in the same way a politician might traditionally have galvanised a country by violent conflict.

as stet says, you kind of feel the pain and anger that's going to be left around europe, especially if the eu were to break up, is exactly the right kind of climate for war. plus you look at this dire, lame duck tory party who have a mandate by default, and it's hard to see a line they wouldn't cross to stop being undercut from the right.

That Sun page was a troll; their actual was much more staid. Which makes sense -- no way do they want to tell their readers that Europe is laughing at them

those terrifying yougov numbers seem like an extension of anti-elite, anti-expert feeling to me. This is something I've noticed about Theresa May's few speeches since becoming PM - she never calls on expert or statistical evidence, rarely if ever cites numbers, but she absolutely nails what a specific mindset wants to hear emotionally. I mean to us it sounds like jingoistic waffle and have-cake-eat-it nonsense but it's not our emotional buttons she wants to press.

I am not very far into this but it feels related! https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/crisis-of-statistics-big-data-democracy

(The irony is ofc that statistics have absolutely been used to manipulate the public discourse by elites for years, so the suspicion is not actually unfounded - it's just gone to the other extreme)

*gulp*

There could be a one in three chance that Brexit negotiations will end with no deal between the UK and the European Union, resulting in "serious economic disruption and a degree of legal chaos", the author of Article 50 has warned.

Lord Kerr also suggested that leaving the EU could result in a "decade of delay and disruption" for Britain, which would damage investment, economic growth and employment.

The former diplomat, who negotiated European deals for both Margaret Thatcher and John Major, made the comments as he considered a number of possible outcomes for the UK following the vote to leave in 2016

Lord Kerr, who has served as UK ambassador to both the EU and the US, warned if no agreement was reached on the terms of Brexit, and no extension to the talks was agreed, the UK would have to leave the EU anyway.

Reports have suggested the UK could be presented with a "divorce bill" by the European Commission which could be as much as £50 billion to £60 billion.

Going on to outline some of the possible outcomes from Brexit, Lord Kerr said there was about a 25 per cent probability the UK will leave Europe in 2019 with an agreed Article 50 financial settlement , a "substantive framework" setting out future relationships and a "degree of progress on the trade negotiations Mrs May says she want".

There is about the same chance the UK will leave in 2019 but with only a "thin framework and not much progress made on trade", he said.

He also warned that talks with the dozens of nations the EU has trade agreements with would not be able to take place until the Brexit process has been completed, telling the audience: "We can expect, I'm afraid, a decade of delay and disruption with investment, economic growth and employment lower than they would have been."

lex otm re: may's conspicuous and alarming lack of evidence every time she talks about brexit

you know with all the focus on the uk having to negotiate its new trading relationship with the eu it hadn't really dawned on me that of course it will also need to negotiate replacements for all trade deals it currently has with everywhere else via its eu membership

This is something I've noticed about Theresa May's few speeches since becoming PM - she never calls on expert or statistical evidence, rarely if ever cites numbers, but she absolutely nails what a specific mindset wants to hear emotionally

It's because she doesn't actually believe in a hard Brexit and is only pursuing it out of fear. Any statistical evidence she were to quote would undermine her direction. I don't think much of the public is in the mood to listen to it right now, but it would come back to haunt her in the future.

and anyone who's been paying attention knows it, so we're in the bizarre and terrifying position of listening to a leader outline a suicidal plan for brexit while knowing that she can't possibly believe anything she's saying

i mean what the fuck

How do we stop this lemming-like madness? Like, seriously?

It's like the UK always had this self-destruct button wired in, and only Cameron was fool and coward enough to punch it.

1) cameron presses self-destruct button to shore up conversative votes from those who might otherwise vote ukip
2) may disingenously cheerleads for destruction in order to stay in power
3) ???
4) profit

seriously wondering about my chances of emigrating to canada, maybe i should message jim in vancouver for advice

this thread would be better if it was just immigration tips

The only real hope was for a parliamentary vote on Article 50 and for Labour to unite with other parties and Tory rebels in voting against it, forcing May to come back with better proposals. But there's next to no chance of that happening, especially with the Stoke by-election bearing down on Labour.

I'm kind of 80% 'hope that May sees sense once negotiations actually begin' and 20% 'hope that is actually fucks up so that everyone concerned is swept from power forever', but a lot of people will need to suffer for the latter one to take place, sadly.

1) cameron presses self-destruct button to shore up conversative votes from those who might otherwise vote ukip

Less to do with vote-chasing I'd have thought more to do with keeping Tory hawks off his back from a time when there seemed more dissent within the ranks and perhaps also appeasing certain business and media magnates likely to do very well out of post-referendum economic effects (e.g. Murdoch buying Sky costing him less now than it likely would've had Remain won).

This is the template email response from my Labour MP when I asked them to vote against triggering Article 50

Thank you for contacting me regarding the process for triggering Article 50. I am a democrat. The people have spoken, and they’ve said we are leaving the European Union.

The Brexit process will be based on two phases, the first being withdrawal, under article 50, the second end-state, under article 218. Withdrawal determines the details of the divorce; end-state determines our future relationship with the EU, as a non-EU country.

The article 218 phase is where the big questions such as access to the single market and reforms to freedom of movement will be decided.

The idea of a second referendum on completion of the article 50 phase is therefore deeply misguided, because the withdrawal is a relatively minor piece of the Brexit puzzle. The success or failure of Brexit will depend on the terms of the article 218 package, not on the details of what is agreed under article 50.

That's why I will not veto or seek to stall the triggering of article 50.

In Parliament, the Opposition have repeatedly emphasised that they will not frustrate or delay the Article 50 process and the motion tabled on the 7th December simply restates a pre-exiting Government timetable to start Brexit negotiations by the end of March 2017.

The British people will rightly wonder what on earth is going on when the public debate is all about end-state issues such as our trading relationship with the EU and dealing with free movement, but those issues are not actually covered by the withdrawal package upon which MPs would be voting.

David Cameron blundered complacently into this referendum in an attempt to tackle an internal spat within the Tory Party. It is the duty of the Opposition to hold the Government to account. We must be there for the British people when the tough times come, as they surely will.

The government is at the eye of the Brexit storm, and rightly so. They have sailed the ship into choppy waters, without a map, compass or any sense of direction. Our job now is to be a responsible and constructive opposition.

We must hold this government’s feet relentlessly to the fire, scrutinise its every move, and ensure that Theresa May works in the national interest, as opposed to the tactical party management manoeuvres that have so far defined her approach.

But none of this will be possible if the story of Brexit becomes that of politicians playing Westminster games, and attempting to subvert the will of the British people.

On Brexit we should be holding the government to account, not to ransom.

mmm, reassuring

bar the tedious rhetoric in there I still think the basic point is right: the way the game works now, no political good can come out of trying to overturn or ignore the referendum result.