Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

Farage was important in the moment but pushing at an open door. The vision May is setting out has always been the preferred one of the majority of people in the Conservative party outside of Parliament and the majority of people who own and operate the newspapers. Tories have been struggling to put a lid on this since Thatcher was turfed out. The number of people convinced by UKIP to vote leave could conceivably have swung it but I think they were probably a small proportion of the overall leave vote vs the number who were either convinced years ago and just looking for an opportunity or brought over the line by the press coverage.

Trump's next door neighbour is an Italian fascist with links to far right parties all over Europe. That may explain why Le Pen was in Trump Tower but there was no meeting announced. Might also partly explain why Farage has been hanging around there so much.

Who is the neighbour?

A guy called Guido Lombardi.

http://www.politico.eu/article/trumps-ambassador-europe-far-right-news-lombardi/

but in the end this bastard succeeded.

How about sharing out the credit, alex? For instance, there's Gisela Stuart, Labour MP and the only UK MP originally from, er, Germany.

Corbyn did his bit too

I don't think Corbyn made much difference either way really.

Alex - I just don't think you understand the landscape over here particularly well. The British public wasn't exactly clamouring for a referendum when Cameron called it, things could have carried on as they were for years without the demands getting audibly louder. Even now the country remains deeply divided on the issue and is likely to become more so.

Where the clamour really did exist was in the Conservative Party itself. As Sharivari says this has been a Tory faultline since 1990 at least. It crippled some leaders (Major) and kept other would-be leaders out at a time when they were miles behind Labour (Kenneth Clarke). Before he won an unexpected majority last year, Cameron was convinced, probably with good reason, that his party was about to commit regicide over the issue, which is why he pledged the referendum despite believing defeat would be disastrous for the country. He effectively traded the UK's future for another 12 months in office.

The majority of the country does not "follow" Farage. Not even close. As Lex says he's failed on multiple attempts to get into Parliament. UKIP has one MP, a defector for the Tories. It has never elected an entirely new MP to Parliament.

However, it's been extremely useful as a pressure group for the segments of the press that have been anti-EU for decades. Murdoch, Dacre etc purposefully built up Farage not because they wanted him in power, but because they knew it would drag the Tories to the right on the issue. In that, they succeeded. Once Article 50 has been triggered they may well fade away altogether, except as an explicit anti-immigration party. Those have historically not fared very well in the UK, certainly not when you compare them to several European countries, but we're in exceptional times here.

The person who doesn't get enough blame for Brexit is Osbourne. In trying to "shoot Labour's fox" and close off avenues of attack from Miliband and Balls, he hammered home the fiction that the country doesn't have any money. He ran down public services and eviscerated the welfare system. And he, with Cameron, allowed the fiction to develop that EU migrants were getting everything from the state while hard-up Britons were having everything taken from them - because he knew the Labour were vulnerable on the issue. Eventually his twatty political game-playing destroyed his political career, but neither he nor Cameron will suffer in the slightest for it.

I just don't think you understand the landscape over here particularly well.

The button is going to be pushed - and Europe is falling apart in any case - and now the fight is in the how it happens.

Yes to the first and the last but i doubt europe is going to fall apart. Europe has to change and will. And after that it will probably be a bit smaller but it will be stronger. Going back to nationalism and isolationism and protectionism is definitely not the right answer to tackle the global challenges. That is the way into disaster and i mean world-wide disaster. Who cares about the uk shutting itself off from the world but if all countries are going into this direction we are all in big trouble. The next world war could be the last.

― it's the distortion, stupid! (alex in mainhattan), Thursday, January 19, 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/21/marine-le-pen-leads-gathering-of-eu-far-right-leaders-in-koblenz

In Holland, France and Germany - and Italy with the populist five star - you are seeing revolts against austerity. Things are fragile that only one or two of those results going against the current order could deal another blow to them, put more pressure on the Euro and lead to another banking/lending crisis.

Since Brexit there has been no desire to change - or to offer an alternative, more positive, vision of how things could be.

And then there is the ongoing migrant crisis (cause by war or environmental decay (and the reports on the Earth's temperature mean something major could happen in our generation)). All that is going to put pressure in everything, including the European project. Not seeing anything to counter that, only heads-in-the-sand stuff.

Both Copeland and Stoke by elections take place on the 23rd: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/20/jeremy-corbyn-labour-copeland-byelection-gillian-troughton

of Feb

"But somehow I still fail to get why such a small majority is enough for a hard Brexit."

It isn't, morally or rationally. It's just what some people are able to achieve politically. The government does not feel under much threat of being voted out and it doesn't fear any pro-EU electoral force.

"But the result is in the responsability of the English people, you cannot blame Cameron for it."

I do - like Matt DC I think - blame Cameron primarily, for calling it.
There was, as DC says, no great clamour for a referendum. It was all a fiction.
DC is quite right about the wickedness of Cameron's calculation - 12 months of his own career for trashing the UK's future.
And he is right about how Cameron and Osborne both escape to a life of ease, having ruined everything for the country.
It is a scandal.

In terms of the population's responsibility for the result, the people who voted Leave are responsible. The people who voted Remain are not.

But the result is in the responsability of the English people

Well, this is true. And the Welsh.

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/lloyds-london-leaving-london/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akrbBpzVAQs

"I find that when I shoot a few Borises and Michaels I feel a whole lot better."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-shooting-birds-boris-johnson-michael-gove-brexit-eu-referendum-davos-a7540311.html

ahahahahaha what larks eh

i find that when i take a shit in the toilet I've named 'david cameron' the existential dread i've been living in since the result of the eu referendum briefly recedes

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/23/theresa-may-donald-trump-us-uk-immigration

But now it is emerging that May’s policy to keep Britain open to the “brightest and best” will be shaped by any early post-Brexit trade deals that the UK is able to negotiate. And it is quickly becoming apparent that those deals are more likely to be done with countries such as America, Australia, Canada or New Zealand, rather than India or China.

However, the danger is that immigration policy for businesspeople and the most highly skilled becomes based on the old “kith and kin” white Commonwealth of Australia, Canada and New Zealand by default, if not by design.

"If not by design".

My great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandmother was Scottish so p sure I'm good

Supreme court: Gov can't trigger A50 without parliament approval

Parliament in a few weeks: *gives approval*

:(

Scotland doesn't need to be consulted, it seems

bye bye Scotland

xpost yeah not sure why all the breathless anticipation about this as everyone has signalled they will not oppose A50

There might be a large-scale Labour revolt anyway (especially from those in Remain constituencies) but with only a handful of disgruntled Tories it'll clearly pass.

Where are the global free trade Tory capitalists when you need them is what I want to know

My MP was a Remain campaigner in a 75% Remain constituency, voted for the Brexit timetable last month and has said she'll vote to trigger A50

If the PLP hadn't been so fucking clueless last summer, they'd a) have a good chance of toppling Corbyn over this, and b) be in a position to inherit less of a dead husk of a party

(I blame the PLP more than Corbyn for the dead-huskness)

what would that party stand for? free trade and legitimate concerns? bracket Corbyn out of the equation and where is the cadre of non-Trots offering voters a new deal?

I'm not even arguing that Corbyn isn't there to be toppled, just repeating the same obviousness one more time: they're tactically clueless because they're ideologically empty

:(

Scotland doesn't need to be consulted, it seems

bye bye Scotland

This must be especially painful for you with your Scottish ancestry.

will we have to police that border too

It is as if a deep-friend phantom limb were making a painful separation from my pasty white body

deep fried obv

a munchy box of painful emotions

"Labour respects the result of the referendum and the will of the British people and will not frustrate the process for invoking article 50.

However, Labour will seek to amend the article 50 bill to prevent the Conservatives using Brexit to turn Britain into a bargain basement tax haven off the coast of Europe.

Labour will seek to build in the principles of full, tariff-free access to the single market and maintenance of workers’ rights and social and environmental protections.

Labour is demanding a plan from the government to ensure it is accountable to parliament throughout the negotiations and a meaningful vote to ensure the final deal is given parliamentary approval."

This is Corbyn's spokesperson rather than Corbyn himself but it really is just toothless, empty brand positioning. If they actually believed in holding the government accountable they'd vote against it. It's amazing how they just repeat the mistakes of their predecessors. You just expect better.

"Labour is demanding a plan from the government"

strong stuff

i'd be fascinated to hear what leverage they think they have to force the government to produce a plan, given that they've conceded that they'll allow article 50 to go ahead

this 'bargain basement tax haven' stuff is really dire: clunkily-phrased and guaranteed to appeal to no-one but diehard tax policy wonks. fucking tragic that it seems to be the best they can do to paint a picture of post-brexit britain

what would that party stand for? free trade and legitimate concerns? bracket Corbyn out of the equation and where is the cadre of non-Trots offering voters a new deal?

Oh absolutely, it wouldn't be worth a toss, Corbyn going would not improve matters. Just marvelling at the circular firing squad.

If labour has already conceded on not stopping the government's trigger of article 50, how on earth is it going to have any leverage for its amendments?

our existing major parties are (ought to be) fractured beyond repair. I still think at some point there will be a major restructuring, but it seems likely that the consequences of Brexit (and I still maintain Brexit is not the only game in town, and am still amused by the wailing and gnashing of teeth from nice people who have just not been that fazed by 40 years of Thatcherism and Post-Thatcherism, cheers guys, nice to have your concern and solidarity along the way) will have to become starker and more horrible before the parties realign.

and in terms of party realignment/betrayal of the electorate as a whole, the free trade Tories seem to me more culpable in many ways, their party is in power after all, and their silence right now is outright cowardice.

hey d00d we can trade with the whole world

"cheers guys, nice to have your concern and solidarity along the way"

I get the feeling a lot of seemingly good folk who wouldn't openly admit to be pro-austerity would happily take further austerity if it meant this unwholesome Brexit thing could be somehow made to disappear.

my sarcastic point entirely, a lot of Remainers' core interests aren't really aligned with mine

Ultimately I don't really believe that May and Hammond have abandoned austerity even if they aren't going for it as gleefully as Osbourne did. They may have put a break on new cuts but the previous ones are still going ahead and that brake can be removed at any time.

Some of the stuff that was coming out re: an industrial strategy the other day was not inherently terrible and went a bit beyond the usual platitudes, but I have zero faith in their following through on it.

the notion of an industrial strategy is fundamentally counter-Thatcherite, I'm not even sure there are many Tories who think in those terms any more, a lot of Statist business types are closer to a Blairite position than anything

That's true, but the current direction of travel also strikes me as counter-Thatcherite, I'm just not sure the extent to which many Tories have noticed amidst all the shock and awe of Brexit. The Thatcherites will bite back eventually.

no doubt. their silence right now is as cynical and corrosive as the PLP's.

no doubt. their silence right now is as cynical and corrosive as the PLP's.

Owen's put his hand up

http://uk.businessinsider.com/khan-dismisses-corbyn-claim-ministers-erode-workers-rights-brexit-2017-1

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has repeatedly claimed that the government plans to turn Britain into a "bargain basement economy" with "low wages and worse conditions."

However Khan today dismissed the claims, saying that he had seen "no evidence" that ministers wanted to erode rights and suggested that they should be given "credit" for committing to protect them.

@CCHQPress

PM: Jeremy Corbyn should listen to Sadiq Khan, who has paid credit to the Govts plan on workers rights t#PMQs

what is Khan's motive for saying this? is it an attempt to disassociate himself from Corbyn (and Labour more generally if it continues to follow a Corbynite direction) and present himself as a centrist, increase his chances of being re-elected even if Labour sees its vote share collapse over the next few years?

Probably. I assume that 'maintaining the confidence' of business is another factor.