Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

"the export market is toast… but spread with COMEDY MARMALADES"

With no access to the EU butter mountain either <----- showing my age.

A+

So if you live in Stoke and get a text from Labour it's probably from...UKIP?
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-16/stoke-on-trent-text-messages-warn-vote-labour-or-go-to-hell/

This particular worst-case-scenario has been haunting me a little, whatever the likelihood
https://twitter.com/J_amesp/status/829243010739232769

― nashwan, Thursday, February 16, 2017 3:14 AM (ten hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the loss of northern ireland is basically unthinkable given the demographics, you've got a strong, consistent majority of people who will never want unification with Ireland under any circumstances.

Wales consistently polls below 20% support for independence.

Scotland is basically a "maybe" at this point, but if there is a second referendum, and it fails then the Scottish National movement is dead.

aye wait til it hits is the point

oh yeah also northern ireland independence is basically unthinkable too*, the statelet is not sustainable on its own.

*of course https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Army_Council">some loyalist nutbars did consider it at the height of the troubles

remind me never to attempt to use formatting ever again because i am dumb

Not to mention we don't want NI

Indeed not as it's expensive and full of coat-trailers, but doesn't the GFA say you'll have no choice if NI should ever vote to join you? (icbw and probably always loopholes, esp when the British govt is dismantling much of the legal basis the GFA is built on)

but yeah, I'd say there's a non-aligned chunk of NI that doesn't even vote at the moment because NI politics is all us and them, and a lot of that chunk currently finds the status quo convenient but may slowly change its mind if things go to shit, and maybe even some softer unionists will rethink, but as long as the DUP is #1 nothing big or sensible is going to happen

looking forward to the election to see if the ash scandal has dented the DUP notably, or just the wider sense that there's any point in voting at all

all other worst case scenarios sadly too convincing sounding. yaaay let's do this thing in the stupidest, most self-destructive way possible, and brook no dissent

iirc there is a free stater veto over irish unification in the GFA

anecdata re: Scottish independence - I know a couple of fervent No voters (middle class managerial types living in England motivated mostly by Sensible Economics) who in the immediate aftermath of Brexit switched without hesitation to Yes in the event of another referendum and have stayed there since

personally my breath is bated for a putative independent Scotland's citizenship criteria. a parent who was born there please and thank u

Beats my sister's failed attempt at discovering some recent Irish ancestry which only managed to uncover a great uncle who played for Hibs, sadly not sufficient criterion for an EU passport.

quite fancy tracing my irish roots but am too lazy. not for eu reasons tho - I'm eligible for italian citizenship anyway - but to find my ancestral donegal village and drink the pint of harp in the pub there

I can get an Irish passport tomorrow if I wanted one, but it wouldn't have any practical use for me. At the moment my name is so shit with my Eire based family that I will probably never go back there. They don't like that I won't go pay tribute to my dying dad, who I haven't had fuck all to do with for nearly 30 years now.

ooh what does it require, my mum's mum was born and raised in rutherglen

That'll dae, ye're in, big yin.

... repeat after me

You could already get a game for Scotland with that background... no, seriously, you could get a game for Scotland, you'll have seen Grant Hanley play?

Jordan Rhodes as well

He got a Scotland cap because he spent 18 months in the school system.

Grant Hanley is Scottish through and through though. More's the pity.

2017!

Lex I think that view is reasonably widespread among Scottish people living in England (I mean certainly in my experience) but a lot depends on whether Scotland would be able to retain EU membership or rejoin easily and that's a minefield. Before a Yes vote was a leap of faith and now if becomes a vote for a status quo of sorts. But if the most likely outcome is an independent Scotland outside the EU then No would surely win again?

Blair, a politician with nothing to lose now appears to be launching his own anti-Brexit campaign. And the text of his speech wasn't terrible until this:

“There is, in some parts of the country, a genuine concern about numbers from Europe – real pressures on services and wages. But for many people, the core of the immigration question – and one which I fully accept is a substantial issue – is immigration from non-European countries especially when from different cultures in which assimilation and potential security threats can be an issue.

Wait I thought it was supposed to be about pressure on jobs and wages and services and now it turns out it was about Muslims all along?

I doubt Sturgeon would push for a referendum if retaining EU membership wasn't in the cards.

the last few times Blair returned from the dead with a grand plan to save politics it blew over in a day so hopefully that'll happen again. God he really has no idea how loathed he is, does he.

It's more than that, it's an attempt to reframe the debate into something that's actually worse. It's stupid, hypocritical, mendacious, dangerous, fascist-enabling bullshit from a guy who hung out with Gaddafi, tried to knight Assad and has done more to destabilise the Middle East than anyone who wasn't an actual dictator or terrorist.

on Scotland and EU membership in the event of secession: there are significant obstacles to this because of the precedent it would set for other EU countries, in particular Spain and its relationship with Catalonia, and to a lesser extent France and Italy. Sturgeon is likely to campaign for independence with a vision of Brexit > Scottish independence > smooth Scottish re-accession to the EU- but just because she is promoting that line doesn't mean it would play out that way. The uncertainty might therefore be an obstacle to an independence vote, much as the hand-waving about various aspects of independent Scotland did for it last time round.

I don't think Sturgeon had any choice once Leave won, to hold back further would have put her under a lot of pressure from her own party.

that's the problem for the SNP: they had to make a commitment to campaign for another referendum after the Brexit vote, but there's no certainty there would be a yes vote if one were held, and in the event of a "no" it's unlikely there could be another one for at least a generation.

at least now uk voted to leave the eu spain could pretend that scotland separating from the uk partly in order to stay in the eu is different to the idea of catalonia leaving spain just in order to be separate

Go back a bit (just catching up), I suspect that Corbyn's views on Scotland are a) The SNP look like a decent candidate for coalition, no need to piss them off and b) If they break away, then it'd be nice to have a left-leaning country next door to retire to.

in the event of a "no" it's unlikely there could be another one for at least a generation.

This is, in fairness, not the first time I've heard this.

*Going

the last few times Blair returned from the dead with a grand plan to save politics it blew over in a day so hopefully that'll happen again. God he really has no idea how loathed he is, does he.

― lex pretend, Friday, 17 February 2017 08:48 (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Geldof in a boat swearing at some fishermen pales beside this. These people are just blissfully unaware of what anyone else thinks of them and why anyone could possibly object to them. It reminds me of those people in the Guardian who, in a feature about the housing crisis, were going on about selling their 4 bedroom house in London, at a 60% profit, in order to move to an eight bedroom listed building in the Cotswolds, with live-in au pair, that's near a good state school.

when Blair mounts his pulpit I don't think he's speaking to the rabble who hate him

needs to drop some major zingers on UKIP to make this remotely worthwhile

And the text of his speech wasn't terrible until this:

the Spectator has published a transcript of what I think is the speech as delivered, and it looks like this part has been rewritten a bit, but it looks like the same basic argument - he's seems to be saying that the "EU migrants put pressure on jobs and services" position is inaccurate, but implicitly endorsing Fararge and Trump's scaremongering about muslim immigrants, while arguing that leaving the EU will not actually affect the latter?

Immigration is the issue. Net immigration into the UK was roughly 335,000 in the year to June 2016. But just over half was from outside the EU. I know, in some parts of the country, there is a real concern about numbers from Europe and the pressures placed on services and wages.

However of the EU immigrants, the PM has recently admitted we would want to keep the majority, including those with a confirmed job offer and students. This leaves around 80,000 who come looking for work without a job. Of these 80,000, a third comes to London, mostly ending up working in the food processing and hospitality sectors. It is highly unlikely that they’re ‘taking’ the jobs of British born people in other parts of the country. The practical impact of Brexit on immigration is on analysis less than 12 per cent of the immigration total. And for many people, the core immigration question – and one which I fully accept is a substantial issue -is immigration from non-European countries, especially when from different cultures in which assimilation and potential security threats can be an issue.

Yet this impacted the Brexit decision. It was Donald Trump who said without the refugees from Syria, ‘you probably wouldn’t have a Brexit.’ It is no coincidence that the infamous immigration poster of Leave was a picture of Mr Farage in front of a line of Syrian people. Thus, we have moved, in few months, from a debate about what sort of Brexit, involving a balanced consideration of all the different possibilities; to the primacy of one consideration – namely controlling immigration – without any real discussion as to why and when Brexit doesn’t affect the immigration people most care about.

it's a pity because the first bit is a more elegant, lucid refutation of the "jobs and services" argument than pretty much any made by a prominent contemporary UK politician over the last few years (honorable exceptions such as Diane Abbott aside)

Blair's conviction Islamophobia sits weirdly with his decision to destabilize Iraq tbh

Stephen Moss ‏@StephenMossGdn 3h3 hours ago

Blair should come out and start that new pro-EU Macron-style party now. Would decimate the Tories in the south

YouGov ‏@YouGov 2h2 hours ago

Tony Blair had a net favourability rating of -60 (14% favourable, 74% unfavourable) on our most recent survey (Nov) https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/05/despite-article-50-controversy-senior-judges-viewe/

Never change, Guardian writers.

I wish he would fuck off back to doing PR for genocidal dictators because I've seen enough of his concerned face posturing, it doesn't help when media outlets like the beeb and the NS keep giving him the front page.

His concerned, happy and angry faces are all the same, thanking you Botox.

This is distracting from Nuttall's lies and incompetence so conveniently.

Nuttall reappeared didn't he? I was getting very worried

Walked past a news screen where the banner had, below "Blair's Speech", "Nick Clegg: I agree with every word"

http://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-courted-for-top-nato-post/

Oh Christ. I mean, sweet Jesus...

I mean, could you even imagine?

not with a bang but with a simper

Flipping a coin to decide whether Putin should invade Estonia.

Who better than a man keen on sticking to the outcomes of highly questionable referendums to sort out Crimea, though?

Lol, Cameron is not going to get that NATO job, Jeremy Corbyn has more chance of being offered it. And if I'may reading between the lines of that downing st 'no comment', not even May will back him.