Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

The argument now is whether Labour's abysmal poll ratings (and they have slipped markedly since 2015) are down to a broader lack of interest in social democratic ideas (including in solidly working-class seats) or whether it's down to Corbyn personally and his inability to communicate them in an appealing way.

a good argument at last

Everyone who cares should be hoping it's the latter.

ok fingers crossed

A powerful right-leaning section of the media is either a distinct third significant factor or key agent behind both left-wing antipathy among the public and the perception of Corbyn as deadweight.

I mean I think he *is* deadweight but I've been paying attention, which is more than can be said for the sizeable chunk of the population that is better informed about whether or not he wears a tie than they are about, say, cuts to mental health services.

Part of the whole reason we are in this mess as a country/planet is that there are much stronger bulwarks in place against even a marginal shift to the left than there are against a slide into fascism. And as that tweet that Lex posted proves, politicians, publicists and policy-makers have been incredibly cavalier about ramping up anti-immigration rhetoric, thinking they can put it back in the bottle afterwards, but if Ed Miliband suggests a freeze on energy prices then he's an extremist.

Corbyn had little discernible effect on labour's polling, as borne out in by- and local election results, until June 2016. The no-confidence vote followed by bitter three month leadership campaign sunk both him and the party. Destroyed the party in order to save it, you might say

Is that actually true? The polls flattered Miliband into thinking he might be PM right up until the last election, and they haven't been in the lead since. They have collapsed after last year and yeah I definitely blame the right of the party for that. More generally I don't see much reason to vote for a party where both wings would rather destroy (or seriously damage) the institution than relinquish control over it.

Also being overlooked is the party in power always polling highly in accordance with low unemployment. Is that ever not the case?

At least I assume the perception of low unemployment is widely held - inconvenient tho it may be for all those who think there are too many immigrants. Maybe the loudness of the latter has obscured the former. Plus I haven't looked at any regional stats which doubtless vary wildly.

unemployment is such a misleading figure in the land of zero hour contracts and wages so low the government has to top them up, but i think we can blame Labour for this misleading as much as anybody else

Mr Memory‏@AmIRightSir

Gerald Kaufman is the 24th sitting Labour MP to have died since April 2000; in the same period 1 Con, 1 LibDem, 1 UUP and 1 Ind MP have died

it's putin's world we just live in it

Get Louise Mensch on to it, pronto.

Labour had twice as many MPs over 70 than the Tories at the last election (16).

I assume the Tories are happier to move to the Lords.

This switching from DLA to PIP process is a complete shitshow. My partner went to some ATOS type assessment and was turned down at the first stage despite having advanced MS. I mean it isn't like you can fake having the serious myelin damage related lesions all over your brain and spine that show up on an mri scan, and it isn't like MS is a fucking benign condition that just makes one walk a wee bit slow - Richard Pryor called it More Shit for a good reason. There is probably a good chance she will be awarded it on appeal as has been happening. But way to fucking being vindictive towards disabled people at a cost, you absolute cunts.

That sounds grim, sorry calzino.

Labour Lords just helped govt defeat Hain amendment to keep UK in single market post-exit. See when everyone asks the (valid) "well if not Corbyn then who??" question I'm at this point ready to take any fucker, anyone at all, who will start voting against this suicide.

That's awful cal, I really hope she gets her appeal.

Utter, utter cunts.

That's just horrible.

There is probably a good chance she will be awarded it on appeal as has been happening.

Pretty much everyone gets it on appeal, the whole process is pure fucking evil though, fuck these cunts for all time.

For shame, best wishes to you and partner calzino

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/28/nigel-farage-calls-for-douglas-carswell-to-be-expelled-from-ukip

seem to deal with somebody every month now on a PIP appeal, every one of them has been won afaik

Someone with advanced MS should never have to see a 'medical professional' other than their own doctor to arrange benefits.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/28/not-really-disabled-man-benefits-appeals-process#comments

Pretty much everyone gets it on appeal, the whole process is pure fucking evil though, fuck these cunts for all time.

Yeah, the point of making blanket rejections on the first go-round is the expectation that a certain percentage won't appeal, and the hope that a percentage of those will kill themselves.

Aaron Banks has just confirmed he is standing against Douglas Carswell at the next election, which is utterly batshit on multiple levels.

at this point ready to take any fucker, anyone at all, who will start voting against this suicide.

With a handful of obvious exceptions, the only people who are really prepared to do this are those with nothing to lose, either because they're in heavily Remain constituencies or because their political careers effectively ended 10-20 years ago. Everyone else is just so... cowed right now.

Aaron Banks has just confirmed he is standing against Douglas Carswell at the next election

can't believe a Nazi coalition is turning against itself

Big Stop The Silence poster van driving about London today proclaiming "we didn't vote for this". Sponsor badges were too small to see who is behind it though

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/how-labour-can-win-over-ukip-voters

"The conclusion for the embattled Labour leadership should be clear: side with the people, and against multi-millionaire bosses exploiting the vast majority of British citizens who are struggling just to get by. Tell British voters that it is you who will help them take back control – not from the EU, not from migrants, but from their bosses" (my itals)

(based on a YouGov poll that showed UKIP voters "way out in front as the most boss-hating group in Britain": I saw DanH respond to this on twitter when he first encountered the poll so I'm glad he's written it up)

The slogan 'take back control' was a piece of political genius.

Hate this opinion so much. It's only 'genius' if it wins and it won narrowly in extraordinary circumstances. Oh Trump and his genius in not campaigning to win the popular vote etc.

I like that piece by Dan Hancox but its strange anyone placed any kind of bet on the 'populist' remake of Corbyn's. Saying things in a somewhat louder, more present, brash way isn't his style. JC says enough 'un-sayable' things from time to time. What it does need is other cabinet ministers to show up as well. Abbott and McDonnell do but what about the many others from this fabled 2015 intake Ellie Mae O'Hagan talks about in her piece (isn't it so courageous of her not to call for Corbyn's sacking? Applauding here), whose chosen one is meant to be taking over in time for the 2020 bashing.

I really want Corbyn to stay and contest 2020 though. But I am very stubborn and like people who really stick around no matter what.

I really dislike "bargain-basement" btw. I know what it means but its so timid. Totally his style though

Could've said May is trying to turn Britain into Zimbawe, but that is project-fear, when nothing has happened since May got elected beyond the minor technocratic dramas around the mere triggering of Art 50.

There is plenty to work with. This government is killing people! But again to hammer that message is nakedly antagonistic.

>>> By forensically targeting aspirational middle class voters – "eight people sipping wine in Kettering", as Peter Mandelson's former assistant Derek Draper put it – 13 years of New Labour in power devastated its historic base. <<<

surprised Mark S has not added this to his 'latte-sipping / hummus-eating' meme.

metropolitanelite.xls

pardon me if this was already posted

https://twitter.com/SBienkowski/status/836172114004692996/photo/1

I have a lot of time for DH but "we're on your side against your bosses" makes it so easy for Labour to be painted as not to be trusted with the economy. And when you consider how precarity and insecurity play into people's voting decisions... it doesn't look like a vote-winner to me. Not without some considerable finessing at least.

Are people not even allowed to pick a side in the class war nowadays?

Asked about Ukip’s future as Britain begins to leave the EU, Farage said: “We are the turkeys that have voted for Christmas."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/01/nigel-farage-carswell-stopping-ukip-becoming-radical-anti-immigration-party

makes it so easy for Labour to be painted as not to be trusted with the economy

whether you're painted as economically trustworthy has nothing to do with reality though. it's a branding problem (reinforced by the media), not a policy one. the Tories driving the economy off a Brexit cliff edge and still being perceived as more economically trustworthy is surely evidence of this.

it's so infuriating to have this ongoing internal Labour battle/collapse when all the ingredients were there for something similar to happen to the Tories and the fuckers just sailed through it unscathed with no strife

It doesn't matter whether it has anything to do with reality! It doesn't even matter whether it's the right course of action, or whether it will shore up the vote in certain areas (it probably will). It just feels like a naive approach to take given how it will almost certainly be countered.

Unfortunately there is an element of show-don't-tell about this. Enough voters still blame Labour for the financial crisis and that won't change until the Tories have their own on their hands and (crucially) people are feeling that in their pocket. They can't really press that narrative until it happens (and a lot of people will suffer when it does), but yes it's completely fucking infuriating that Labour have failed again and again to put themselves on the right side of that argument since June.

post-2008 labour is going to be painted as "not trusted on the economy" for the foreseeable, however they twist and turn -- that ship is sailed (on a long voyage, distant date of return not yet known: it will never return sporting a blair-coloured cargo-cult flag blah blah)

re precarity and insecurity etc: this is a fair point -- it's all too easy to to advise "advance to full class-war setting" from our relatively comfortable metropolitan ivory munching platforms and sipping balconies. nevertheless, if the status quo does still include a significant number of people knowingly voting against their interests out of uneasy fear, then it is an unstable status quo (and someone is going to pick up those votes when they turn in desperation). this is not a situation i enjoy being in -- i'm a peaceable fellow who's no longer even built for running away, let along any other kind of "street" activity -- but if it turns into a choice, "war on the bosses" is where the left should be, and not "war on migrants" or "war on scroungers" or whatever. what's more -- and this is dan's point -- 'war on the bosses" would change the numbers in unexpected ways

blimey listen to me, i'll be itemising heads fit only to go on poles in a post or two

There is the kernel of something in there when you consider the extent to which people like Philip Green and Mike Ashley are held up as modern-day folk demons, and maybe this is what Ed Miliband was hamfistedly aiming for with "predatory capitalism" and you can see how that turned out.

It's one thing to tell people you're on their side, and even have them believe you, but they also have to trust that you're capable of delivering what you say without making things worse, and that's where Labour's real problems have been for years.

feel like labour could brush up on the classic STAR technique for job interviews. Situation, Task, Action, Result. for the last couple of years they've been somewhere between S and T.

the electorate voting out labour (just about) after a crash caused by an out of control finance sector is a good example of the emotive weight of narrative and blame i.e. branding, and how suspicious most of the country remains of labour/the left & how quick they are to run back to the tories; really none of the standard left wing tropes have resonated for 40+ years without being backed up with quite authoritarian lines on, broadly, 'security'. & yet there is always the pull to overstate the inevitability of the current political situation and I'm aware that a competent new labour successor to blair could well have beaten cameron and we'd be living in the brexitless 00s centrist stasis so many people are now pining for.

I do wonder though what might happen if there was a truly disastrous split in the labour party with both weakened parties losing further ground to the greens & lib dems, and you had the tories getting 3x the number of seats of anyone else. this seems like perhaps the most sure-fire way to change the political landscape in a way that might actually have a long-term effect on the tory vote, though to what end I don't know.

I'm aware that a competent new labour successor to blair could well have beaten cameron

incompetent succession p much integral to the entire nu-lab project

yeah Blair had PPI'd his own party before he took the job

y'know, I meant PFI'd but either way works

the takeaway of everyone's gloom is that labour has to get better at convincing ppl it can be good at something again (=believes in something and can deliver it)

which goal can it reach quickest, most effectively? (i agree i and ii both are a massive ask, tho i consider i much further out of reach)

i: managerial economic competence for the good of all
ii: pile of bloody bosses' skulls
iii: other (plz specify)

Brentry

The Sarah Champion paper just given at LSE this morning: she's asking for an economic equality bill to stop budgets favouring men (86 per cent of austerity's cuts and tax rises have fallen on women). Good optics to make a fake feminist PM look bad?

There is the kernel of something in there when you consider the extent to which people like Philip Green and Mike Ashley are held up as modern-day folk demons, and maybe this is what Ed Miliband was hamfistedly aiming for with "predatory capitalism" and you can see how that turned out.

It's one thing to tell people you're on their side, and even have them believe you, but they also have to trust that you're capable of delivering what you say without making things worse, and that's where Labour's real problems have been for years.

― Matt DC, Wednesday, 1 March 2017 11:05 (eleven hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Oh, Geeen is already redeemed.

PARDONED!
As he (belatedly) does the right thing by BHS pensioners The Mail hereby revokes the title Sir Shifty. Well done Sir Phil!

http://en.kiosko.net/uk/np/daily_mail.html

It is a good job the Mail put in that exclamation marK in the heading, possibly to signify he is a bit of a raffish/maverick/zany character - because otherwise I might have mistaken the thieving cunt for a criminal type that would literally rob your fucking wallet if you were dying on the pavement!

... and then get shirty and outraged if anyone objected to him rifling the pockets of a corpse.

I see it was 'a deal' and that 'most' of the money has been (or is to be) paid back..

Yes, without him even having to sign a caution for the missing money. None of this falling off yachts anymore, the story just blows over within a year.

I meant by normal people, not the Daily Mail. People fucking hate Philip Green (although they hate Ashley more).