yeah especially since the 2nd round falls during a long weekend so a lot of people just might not bother, whereas le pen voters are usually always there for elections.
as for fillon, the main excuses "everybody does it" (what a shit excuse and yeah, as you said untrue... also, with scandals like cahuzac or le roux, they quit the government) and "it's a media conspiracy against him because he's the best candidate" are really ridiculous. i keep hearing about how the media keeps piling on him and not other candidates. yet they can't believe it might be because there are no scandals with the other candidates, it has to be because the media hates fillon
― Jibe, Tuesday, 4 April 2017 09:31 (seven years ago) link
Fillon's incredible capacity for dishonest, maudlin, self-regarding martyrdom here also a factor maybe. There's a hard seam of emotional messianism about French politics that I've never really understood TBH
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 4 April 2017 09:33 (seven years ago) link
Is a majority of Fillon's support likely to break for Le Pen in the runoff (assuming etc etc)?
― why labour 'foot problems' since 2015? (Bananaman Begins), Tuesday, 4 April 2017 09:58 (seven years ago) link
iirc there was a poll stating it would break down to 1/3 le pen 1/3 macron 1/3 abstaining fillon really is a complete piece of shit with an incredible capacity for all those things you mentioned tracer. also, he keeps sayng stupid shit, like yesterrday's "i barely earn enough to save money every month" while making 23k€/month. love le gorafi launching a kickstarter campaign to get him some money.
― Jibe, Tuesday, 4 April 2017 10:18 (seven years ago) link
Loool
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 4 April 2017 11:51 (seven years ago) link
urgh Melenchon/MLP face-off is just too ugly to consider. Hate this election
― licorice oratorio (baaderonixx), Tuesday, 4 April 2017 14:09 (seven years ago) link
so?
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 5 April 2017 13:34 (seven years ago) link
(not a reply to baaderonixx - a bid for thoughts on last night's debate.. that is, if anybody actually made it through..)
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 5 April 2017 13:35 (seven years ago) link
this was good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SJvA0fS8Yc
I didn't watch any of it. since I can't yet vote I don't need to spend 3 1/2 hrs listening to potshots against the cons/connes, j'ai la flemme. I gather "nothing changed"?
― droit au butt (Euler), Wednesday, 5 April 2017 13:42 (seven years ago) link
nothing changed
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 5 April 2017 13:47 (seven years ago) link
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 12 April 2017 18:16 (seven years ago) link
A run off between two eurosceptic, anti-NATO, Putin-accommodating candidates would be a disaster for Eastern Europe in particular. But I doubt anyone cares aside from the principaux intéressés.
― pomenitul, Wednesday, 12 April 2017 20:31 (seven years ago) link
went to vote earlier today, there's been a line in front of the place all day longreally starting to worry about the results tonight
― Jibe, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:20 (seven years ago) link
I've heard Le Pen voters, being highly motivated, always show up to the polls - does this mean the high turnout might be a good sign (i.e. people have been sufficiently scared by a Le Pen victory that they're hitting the polls to prevent it?)
― Daniel_Rf, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:28 (seven years ago) link
yup, it is commonly accepted that higher turnout reduces the proportion of le pen votes. she's still more than likely to make it to the second round though, but whereas a few months ago it was a given she'd finish first with a comfortable margin, now she might come in second or first with a tiny margin. some exit polls are floating around giving macron ahead of le pen rn, we'll see
― Jibe, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:41 (seven years ago) link
Is macron vs le pen much better than fillon vs le pen?
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:43 (seven years ago) link
Y E S
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:44 (seven years ago) link
Why? Bc he's more electable? But it's still a bad ideological mix and presumably the left would still be uninterested in coming out for the globalist?
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:45 (seven years ago) link
Please school me if I'm confused but le pen seems more like what trumps supporters thought he was and macron seems more like what hillarys opponents thought she was
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:47 (seven years ago) link
"Bad ideological mix'... No perfect candidates. I'm happy if Macron wins because he's young, had a grassroots campaign attracting a lot of youngsters, and is pro-EU.
Fillon supporters would vote for Macron for president, I reckon. Mélonchon prob not so much, but Fillon is so tainted, him up against Le Pen would be very dangerous imho.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:51 (seven years ago) link
Fillon wants to impose a (further) austerity program. This would be a disaster for the slow economic recovery that is in place. Macron does not want to impose such a program. Thus Macron would be much better than Fillon.
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:52 (seven years ago) link
That too ^^
Think it's not as simple as Mordy states that "would left vote for a centrist". Because I think in continental Western Europe these two aren't as far removed - they will find common ground as "progressive".
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:54 (seven years ago) link
My impression was that Macrons reforms was essentially neoliberal and austerity like cutting SS, labor reforms, etc
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:02 (seven years ago) link
Your impression is wrong.
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:02 (seven years ago) link
Macron def wants big cuts, but not nearly as big as Fillon (link)
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:08 (seven years ago) link
Macron would be seen as a standard social-democrat in any western country outside of France.
― licorice oratorio (baaderonixx), Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:39 (seven years ago) link
Ugh, they're the worst.
― Frederik B, Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:46 (seven years ago) link
EuropeElects projects:
Macron 26%Le Pen 23%Melenchon 21%Fillon 17%
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:46 (seven years ago) link
last time I was in france la loi macron was going down like a bag of day old sick. some turnaround for him
― ||||||||, Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:47 (seven years ago) link
It's his daughter
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:49 (seven years ago) link
Macron / Le Pen, as expected.
― Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:01 (seven years ago) link
Emmanuel Macron : 23,7 % Marine Le Pen : 21,7 % François Fillon : 19,5 % Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 19,5 % Benoît Hamon : 6,2 % Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 5% Jean Lassalle 1,5 % Philippe Poutou 1,2 % François Asselineau 0,8 % Nathalie Arthaud 0,7% Jacques Cheminade : 0,2 %
Closer than I would've liked
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:01 (seven years ago) link
(though the exit poll is based mostly on rural France, the big cities (Macron) are still to be counted)
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:05 (seven years ago) link
Ipsos: Macron 23.7% Le Pen 21.7%Elabe: Macron 23.7% Le Pen 22%Kantar: Macron 23% Le Pen 23%Ifop: Macron 23,8% Le Pen 21,6%
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:07 (seven years ago) link
Harris poll has:
Macron (EM-*): 24.5%Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 20%Le Pen (FN-ENF): 20%Fillon (LR-EPP): 18%
― mark s, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:08 (seven years ago) link
just to keep it exciting :(
How many polls do they have?! :D
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:09 (seven years ago) link
legally none
― mark s, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
Took us 2 hours to vote yesterday.
Le Pen at 2% of #1. Jeez.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
@NateSilver538 53s54 seconds ago Clinton led Trump by 2-3 pointsRemain led Leave by 1-2 pointsMacron leads Le Pen by 26 points in runoff polls
How nice for her etc.
― nashwan, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
mordy: http://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/entreprises/travail-le-dimanche/l-article-a-lire-pour-comprendre-la-loi-macron_770365.html
― ||||||||, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
Still a big win for Le Pen, who no doubt will try and draw the Fillon-squad to her for the second round. At the same time I think EU breathes a bit more relaxed, as there is no "realistic" (I know, I know) scenario for Le Pen to win this in any way.
xxxp Fuck NateSilver53fucking8 for pretending to know what he's on about here
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:13 (seven years ago) link
Hamon concedes and asks his (6,2%) followers to vote for Macron.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:15 (seven years ago) link
Happy that Macron has more votes than Le Pen, and that Mélenchon is tied with Fillon; the left having as good an outing as the mainstream right is a good sign.
I understand the less enthused reactions here but frankly I was expecting Le Pen to win the first round.
― Daniel_Rf, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:15 (seven years ago) link
Dunno if you can talk about good outing when Le Pen beats Melenchon and Hamon.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:16 (seven years ago) link
Worth mentioning the pollsters have been pretty spot on here.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:20 (seven years ago) link
Van Horn Street, as stated, I expected her to beat everyone, so.
― Daniel_Rf, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:22 (seven years ago) link
Didn't expect Le Pen to win, not for a second. A 22-23% slice of the cake is still really big. But otoh: for a country that has had so much trouble with terrorist attacks etc I am pleasantly surprised only a fifth chose for the neo-nazi? Mixed feelings.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:22 (seven years ago) link
Extreme right won but it's hardly a power grab. Same with Wilders two months earlier (getting 13% of the vote).
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:25 (seven years ago) link