I didn't watch any of it. since I can't yet vote I don't need to spend 3 1/2 hrs listening to potshots against the cons/connes, j'ai la flemme. I gather "nothing changed"?
― droit au butt (Euler), Wednesday, 5 April 2017 13:42 (seven years ago) link
nothing changed
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 5 April 2017 13:47 (seven years ago) link
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 12 April 2017 18:16 (seven years ago) link
A run off between two eurosceptic, anti-NATO, Putin-accommodating candidates would be a disaster for Eastern Europe in particular. But I doubt anyone cares aside from the principaux intéressés.
― pomenitul, Wednesday, 12 April 2017 20:31 (seven years ago) link
went to vote earlier today, there's been a line in front of the place all day longreally starting to worry about the results tonight
― Jibe, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:20 (seven years ago) link
I've heard Le Pen voters, being highly motivated, always show up to the polls - does this mean the high turnout might be a good sign (i.e. people have been sufficiently scared by a Le Pen victory that they're hitting the polls to prevent it?)
― Daniel_Rf, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:28 (seven years ago) link
yup, it is commonly accepted that higher turnout reduces the proportion of le pen votes. she's still more than likely to make it to the second round though, but whereas a few months ago it was a given she'd finish first with a comfortable margin, now she might come in second or first with a tiny margin. some exit polls are floating around giving macron ahead of le pen rn, we'll see
― Jibe, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:41 (seven years ago) link
Is macron vs le pen much better than fillon vs le pen?
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:43 (seven years ago) link
Y E S
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:44 (seven years ago) link
Why? Bc he's more electable? But it's still a bad ideological mix and presumably the left would still be uninterested in coming out for the globalist?
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:45 (seven years ago) link
Please school me if I'm confused but le pen seems more like what trumps supporters thought he was and macron seems more like what hillarys opponents thought she was
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:47 (seven years ago) link
"Bad ideological mix'... No perfect candidates. I'm happy if Macron wins because he's young, had a grassroots campaign attracting a lot of youngsters, and is pro-EU.
Fillon supporters would vote for Macron for president, I reckon. Mélonchon prob not so much, but Fillon is so tainted, him up against Le Pen would be very dangerous imho.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:51 (seven years ago) link
Fillon wants to impose a (further) austerity program. This would be a disaster for the slow economic recovery that is in place. Macron does not want to impose such a program. Thus Macron would be much better than Fillon.
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:52 (seven years ago) link
That too ^^
Think it's not as simple as Mordy states that "would left vote for a centrist". Because I think in continental Western Europe these two aren't as far removed - they will find common ground as "progressive".
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 16:54 (seven years ago) link
My impression was that Macrons reforms was essentially neoliberal and austerity like cutting SS, labor reforms, etc
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:02 (seven years ago) link
Your impression is wrong.
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:02 (seven years ago) link
Macron def wants big cuts, but not nearly as big as Fillon (link)
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:08 (seven years ago) link
Macron would be seen as a standard social-democrat in any western country outside of France.
― licorice oratorio (baaderonixx), Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:39 (seven years ago) link
Ugh, they're the worst.
― Frederik B, Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:46 (seven years ago) link
EuropeElects projects:
Macron 26%Le Pen 23%Melenchon 21%Fillon 17%
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:46 (seven years ago) link
last time I was in france la loi macron was going down like a bag of day old sick. some turnaround for him
― ||||||||, Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:47 (seven years ago) link
It's his daughter
― Mordy, Sunday, 23 April 2017 17:49 (seven years ago) link
Macron / Le Pen, as expected.
― Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:01 (seven years ago) link
Emmanuel Macron : 23,7 % Marine Le Pen : 21,7 % François Fillon : 19,5 % Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 19,5 % Benoît Hamon : 6,2 % Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 5% Jean Lassalle 1,5 % Philippe Poutou 1,2 % François Asselineau 0,8 % Nathalie Arthaud 0,7% Jacques Cheminade : 0,2 %
Closer than I would've liked
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:01 (seven years ago) link
(though the exit poll is based mostly on rural France, the big cities (Macron) are still to be counted)
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:05 (seven years ago) link
Ipsos: Macron 23.7% Le Pen 21.7%Elabe: Macron 23.7% Le Pen 22%Kantar: Macron 23% Le Pen 23%Ifop: Macron 23,8% Le Pen 21,6%
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:07 (seven years ago) link
Harris poll has:
Macron (EM-*): 24.5%Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 20%Le Pen (FN-ENF): 20%Fillon (LR-EPP): 18%
― mark s, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:08 (seven years ago) link
just to keep it exciting :(
How many polls do they have?! :D
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:09 (seven years ago) link
legally none
― mark s, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
Took us 2 hours to vote yesterday.
Le Pen at 2% of #1. Jeez.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
@NateSilver538 53s54 seconds ago Clinton led Trump by 2-3 pointsRemain led Leave by 1-2 pointsMacron leads Le Pen by 26 points in runoff polls
How nice for her etc.
― nashwan, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
mordy: http://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/entreprises/travail-le-dimanche/l-article-a-lire-pour-comprendre-la-loi-macron_770365.html
― ||||||||, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
Still a big win for Le Pen, who no doubt will try and draw the Fillon-squad to her for the second round. At the same time I think EU breathes a bit more relaxed, as there is no "realistic" (I know, I know) scenario for Le Pen to win this in any way.
xxxp Fuck NateSilver53fucking8 for pretending to know what he's on about here
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:13 (seven years ago) link
Hamon concedes and asks his (6,2%) followers to vote for Macron.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:15 (seven years ago) link
Happy that Macron has more votes than Le Pen, and that Mélenchon is tied with Fillon; the left having as good an outing as the mainstream right is a good sign.
I understand the less enthused reactions here but frankly I was expecting Le Pen to win the first round.
― Daniel_Rf, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:15 (seven years ago) link
Dunno if you can talk about good outing when Le Pen beats Melenchon and Hamon.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:16 (seven years ago) link
Worth mentioning the pollsters have been pretty spot on here.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:20 (seven years ago) link
Van Horn Street, as stated, I expected her to beat everyone, so.
― Daniel_Rf, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:22 (seven years ago) link
Didn't expect Le Pen to win, not for a second. A 22-23% slice of the cake is still really big. But otoh: for a country that has had so much trouble with terrorist attacks etc I am pleasantly surprised only a fifth chose for the neo-nazi? Mixed feelings.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:22 (seven years ago) link
Extreme right won but it's hardly a power grab. Same with Wilders two months earlier (getting 13% of the vote).
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:25 (seven years ago) link
So this exit poll is not actually an exit poll, but a sampling of real votes in 7pm-closing areas, right? Run through some demographic adjustment to provide an estimate. And it's always been pretty accurate, within a point or so. Surprised they can broadcast it when some polls are still open. I'm hoping the margin of error is such that Le Pen actually gets squeezed out.
― Michael Jones, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:27 (seven years ago) link
All polls closed at 8pm, when the exit poll was published, so there weren't any polls open anymore when they let this result out. The bigger cities will take way more time to call the vote. They prob adjust this for the published exit polls, but the cities are generally not in favor of Le Pen, more of the moderates.
― On Some Faraday Beach (Le Bateau Ivre), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:31 (seven years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-HbDcCXYAAM7Oq.jpg
as soon as this pub^^^ closes/the revolution starts
― mark s, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:32 (seven years ago) link
where is the bar
― droit au butt (Euler), Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:40 (seven years ago) link
I'm curious, how many pro-Mélenchon posters also complain about Brexit on a regular basis?
― pomenitul, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:40 (seven years ago) link
good question.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:45 (seven years ago) link
bar = Belushi's Gare Du Nord, 5 Rue de Dunkerque, 75010 Paris (Informal chain bar with TV sport and live entertainment, plus a burger menu and global comfort food)
^^^acc. getty images
― mark s, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:46 (seven years ago) link
http://images.sudouest.fr/2017/04/23/58fcd4e566a4bdf7281d1216/widescreen/1000x500/le-candidat-de-la-france-insoumise-a-privatise-un-bar-rock-et-sport-pres-de-la-gare-du-nord.jpg
un bar "rock et sport"
― mark s, Sunday, 23 April 2017 18:49 (seven years ago) link
global comfort food seems like a good idea tbh, i wonder where you get it in hackney