Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

handy

doesn't everybody who's not UKIP and the tories have a duty to band together now and stop this? are the parties really going yo go it alone and treat this like just another election?

The SNP are not going to band together with anyone. Third biggest party in parliament.

there's a strong doubt whether openly forming a broad coalition would be effective - it's not just the parties, but many of their voters - Tory Lib Dems, unionist Labour, who would be turned off by potential deals to be made. better maybe to encourage a tactical voting infrastructure and try to cobble together a coalition after the results are in. unlikely to make much difference.

if Sturgeon or Corbyn have got any sense they won't countenance a coalition before the vote

didn't the tories weaponise the prospect of a Labour/SNP in the last election? Like voters don't like it cos erm.. it's a bad thing apparently.

exackly

yes. i am grasping at straws.

in this country the idea of a coalition is in itself something to be feared - imagine a political party co-operating with another one rather than defiling the country for 20 years at a time.

i think it would be nice for the forces of non-evil to collaborate, just don't call it a coalition, yet

Channel 4 now saying that May has ruled out any televised leadership debates.

Idgi, is this her call? If she doesn't want to, let the others do it then right? Not that it will matter. Not that anything matters.

The Lib Dems may well have the light of "the official opposition party" burning in their eyes.

oh good

Is there even enough time for constituency parties to run a proper selection process?

The SNP are intent on the annihilation of the Labour Party in Scotland, something they have made very clear, so unlikely to want to enter into any association with them. They've already said the election in Scotland is between them and the Tories.

Stephen Bush@stephenkb

On the Labour leadership point: if the result is as bad as polls suggest, I wouldn't be shocked if it's Yvette Cooper by acclamation in PLP.

I guess this kind of scenario might stop Corbyn from standing down after a general election defeat? don't know what his chances would be if he stood in another leadership contest though.

Theresa May says: "No Jeremy Corbyn on the television OK thx bye"

btw, what's the betting for this elec being the lowest turnout ever?

that gorton bye-election will get a low turnout, if it's still happening

Is that it now, the end of opposition politics for good?

Turnout over 50% would be good...under the circumstances...

I don't think it can, surely, as it would require electing an MP to a Parliament that's already been dissolved?

Is that it now, the end of opposition politics for good?

i doubt it. no reason to think the madness of the last year or two will lead to stability, even for the right.

xpost

is rebecca long-bailey still seen as the designated corb-successor? i guess post-defeat might be the time to step aside for whoever it is -- tho only if there's a chance of a corb-successor being on the ballot at all (if there's even a ballot)

(seem to recall a stephen bush in feb abt why it's highly unlikely to clive lewis: no way for him to get to the vote threshold within the PLP)

Rebecca Long-Bailey has even less chance of getting on the ballot than Lewis though, surely? along with pretty much anyone from the left of the party, unless the left gets enough delegates at the party conference to be able to change the process

then corbs will stay and may win

corbs

Dr Corbius

dr. corbius

blast xp

haha

also i just read* that -- in the case of a snap early election like this -- the next fixed-term election will happen in 2021 not 2022

*courtesy david allen green bcz i haven't yet got round to the mass muting that the next six weeks urgently demands

Just been trying to verify this. What is the reason it would be 2021 not 2022!

If Corbyn was reinvented as Dr Corbius he would be unstoppable, it would be like that Simpsons episode where Homer changes his name to Max Power!

? not ! Sorry in pub

checked back and david allen green* has changed his mind abt this: apparently "4 years only applies if early GE takes place before first Thursday in May" acc. s.1(4) of the fixed term act

*still haven't muted him, where is my head

The next election will take place six months to a year after the Scottish referendum.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-opposes-automatic-reselection-of-labour-mps-for-general-election-sources-claim_uk_58f638a7e4b0b9e9848ec795?iqk

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/anthony-barnet/why-is-she-frit

I'm convinced.

definitely an element of frit, yes

That essay is good in giving no shrift to the BS reasons given by TM -- and in finding other reasons.

It is shameful if the media accept her own version of what is happening and why.

more importantly it grasps the importance of the question i asked upthread and thus validates my profound political acuity

Which question? The one in the Baldrick thread?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/early-general-election-may-2017-theresa-may-article-50-brexit-negotiations-labour-polls-a7639246.html

^^explicit denial there'd be an early GE less than a month ago -- wonder what caused the change of mind?

― mark s, Tuesday, April 18, 2017 11:43 AM (six hours ago)

^^^nope this one a little up this page (tho that thread is doubtless also full of good questions from me)

Which question? The one in the Baldrick thread?

Had to think for a moment what thread this was referring to.

in line with that, Deutsche Bank forex dude apparently says this:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9su_Z9XYAA8zt0.jpg

(quite a good case for starting a new thread dedicated to british politics imo)

STRUCTURALLY BEARISH

bear say hi to me

BTW, when does Osborne take up his Heevnin Stannit job?

Cause, he doesn't like May much, right?

So yes that makes her biggest problem to be the EU itself and what they do - which shows, as she can't even name them when listing her reasoning.

But maybe also the expenses scandal was part of it. If it is the case that several MPs could be jailed for it then this would impact her small majority. I wonder how it will play in those seats affected. It will not matter if the projected polls are right but this will reflect badly and may cast a shadow on the campaign.

I don't think she would have called a GE - we've had elections in 2015, 2016 and now 2017 (Scotland had their ref in 2014) (and this GE will follow one month on from the local elections). It might explain her reluctance of debates. A debate is a big show, its sheer fatigue to have these time after time.

So I wonder if, by instructing Labour to reject this proposal of an election outright and forcing the government to hold a vote of no-confidence in itself it would just heighten that sense of May as a shameful political operator.