Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

I don't think it can, surely, as it would require electing an MP to a Parliament that's already been dissolved?

Is that it now, the end of opposition politics for good?

i doubt it. no reason to think the madness of the last year or two will lead to stability, even for the right.

xpost

is rebecca long-bailey still seen as the designated corb-successor? i guess post-defeat might be the time to step aside for whoever it is -- tho only if there's a chance of a corb-successor being on the ballot at all (if there's even a ballot)

(seem to recall a stephen bush in feb abt why it's highly unlikely to clive lewis: no way for him to get to the vote threshold within the PLP)

Rebecca Long-Bailey has even less chance of getting on the ballot than Lewis though, surely? along with pretty much anyone from the left of the party, unless the left gets enough delegates at the party conference to be able to change the process

then corbs will stay and may win

corbs

Dr Corbius

dr. corbius

blast xp

haha

also i just read* that -- in the case of a snap early election like this -- the next fixed-term election will happen in 2021 not 2022

*courtesy david allen green bcz i haven't yet got round to the mass muting that the next six weeks urgently demands

Just been trying to verify this. What is the reason it would be 2021 not 2022!

If Corbyn was reinvented as Dr Corbius he would be unstoppable, it would be like that Simpsons episode where Homer changes his name to Max Power!

? not ! Sorry in pub

checked back and david allen green* has changed his mind abt this: apparently "4 years only applies if early GE takes place before first Thursday in May" acc. s.1(4) of the fixed term act

*still haven't muted him, where is my head

The next election will take place six months to a year after the Scottish referendum.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-opposes-automatic-reselection-of-labour-mps-for-general-election-sources-claim_uk_58f638a7e4b0b9e9848ec795?iqk

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/anthony-barnet/why-is-she-frit

I'm convinced.

definitely an element of frit, yes

That essay is good in giving no shrift to the BS reasons given by TM -- and in finding other reasons.

It is shameful if the media accept her own version of what is happening and why.

more importantly it grasps the importance of the question i asked upthread and thus validates my profound political acuity

Which question? The one in the Baldrick thread?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/early-general-election-may-2017-theresa-may-article-50-brexit-negotiations-labour-polls-a7639246.html

^^explicit denial there'd be an early GE less than a month ago -- wonder what caused the change of mind?

― mark s, Tuesday, April 18, 2017 11:43 AM (six hours ago)

^^^nope this one a little up this page (tho that thread is doubtless also full of good questions from me)

Which question? The one in the Baldrick thread?

Had to think for a moment what thread this was referring to.

in line with that, Deutsche Bank forex dude apparently says this:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9su_Z9XYAA8zt0.jpg

(quite a good case for starting a new thread dedicated to british politics imo)

STRUCTURALLY BEARISH

bear say hi to me

BTW, when does Osborne take up his Heevnin Stannit job?

Cause, he doesn't like May much, right?

So yes that makes her biggest problem to be the EU itself and what they do - which shows, as she can't even name them when listing her reasoning.

But maybe also the expenses scandal was part of it. If it is the case that several MPs could be jailed for it then this would impact her small majority. I wonder how it will play in those seats affected. It will not matter if the projected polls are right but this will reflect badly and may cast a shadow on the campaign.

I don't think she would have called a GE - we've had elections in 2015, 2016 and now 2017 (Scotland had their ref in 2014) (and this GE will follow one month on from the local elections). It might explain her reluctance of debates. A debate is a big show, its sheer fatigue to have these time after time.

So I wonder if, by instructing Labour to reject this proposal of an election outright and forcing the government to hold a vote of no-confidence in itself it would just heighten that sense of May as a shameful political operator.

osborne starts at the ES in may apparently (sez wikipedia)

MAKE 8 JUNE THE LAST OF MAY

(Scotland had their ref in 2014)

... and elections to the Scottish Parliament in 2016. In Northern Ireland they've just had an election, less than a year after another election - quicker than Charlton Athletic go through managers.

labour would be daft to support an election. well apart from the PLP as surely Corbyn won't be able to continue after a pasting in a GE?

I don't agree w/that.

Corbyn's statement in minimising a mention on Brexit was the right tone. The reaction of 'oh where's Brexit in this?' is just what you'd expect. Brexit IS politics for a section of people (are 'team terrified' voting Lib Dem?). There is coherence between the tone of the statement and the policy announcements last week.

Corbyn shouldn't resign (fkn hilarious posts upthread). Instead the Labour MPs who made it their business to malign and not work with this leadership and who backed Owen Smith are the ones who should pack up and form their Progress Party and fight for their politics (whatever the fuck that is?) The game has changed and what I said yesterday about learning the lessons of Melanchon etc. stands - its clear that kind of politics is in play. Its there in Spain, Portugal, and was there in Greece, and is now showing itself France. This GE has been called because of Tory fuck-ups. No reason to think they won't stop. A left-wing party with a base has to keep positioning themselves as an alternative that people might vote for at some point. I don't see this election as the 'end of oppostion' or any kind of apocalypse as long as a left-Labour is acitve.

Right on time:

Michael Crick‏Verified account @MichaelLCrick 22m22 minutes ago

BREAKING: The CPS have told Channel 4 News tonight that they are considering charges against more than 30 individuals. #electionexpenses

i like, i like

LOL @ Richard Seymour though, from the piece quote upthread:

So what is to be done? Yes we have to get out and campaign, and do everything suggested by Holly:

"1) Organise the largest mass canvassing campaign the UK has ever seen, including bussing London activists to other parts of the country every weekend until the GE
2) Organise a huge demo for our vision of a People's Brexit which explicitly lays out Labour's programme to protect jobs, migrants and human rights.
3) Announce a migrant impact fund for working class areas where services are most affected by immigration
4) Make a deal with the SNP to go into some kind of coalition in return for INDYREF2"

no 1 was the thing that meant over-spend in the last GE.

do we know the timetable for the election expenses investigations? do they carry on straight away, or do they get postponed till after june?

i haven't really been following it bcz the bar to nullify the individual seats was obviously going to be too high -- the party might get fine but the MP is only kicked out if it's proved beyond doubt they were directly knowingly involved in the fraud (which is quite unlikely in terms of the practical organisation of an election -- they have quite enough on their plate campaigning)

but now that issue is irrelevant -- they're all stepping down anyway (for the election) and the bar for making the fraud a local campaigning issue is very much lower than the legal bar

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/mar/23/conservative-election-scandal-victory-2015-expenses

Well I read this at the time and thought it was a real ticking time-bomb. I knew of it but that piece set some timelines.

If the candidate is standing again and is being charged with fraud then I think its relevant in those marginal seats. The effect could ripple through to the rest of the campaign.

iirc I have to re-read and can't do rn.

The timing isn't good for May.

do we know which constituencies are affected?

Just received another one of those spam Labour emails from Dr Corbius. As a voter in Scotland, I thought this paragraph was extraordinarily badly judged:

Labour will be offering the country an effective alternative to a government that has failed to rebuild the economy, delivered falling living standards and and handed the SNP a fresh grievance in its campaign for a second independence referendum.

labour in 'bad judgment' shocker

labour love to alienate their former scottish voters

They're finished in Scotland, I think the Tories and Lib Dems have more chance of winning seats from the SNP.

I imagine the SNP feel the same.

oh, definitely

The policy announcements from Labour this past week have been good recently - just need to diligently keep plugging away.

The election is scheduled for 2020. Pace yourself.

...

fkn hilarious posts upthread

lol

'scheduled'

voting lib dem, cake?

no, labour.