Trump, June 2017: From [Covfefe] with Love

R+5 according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin%27s_1st_congressional_district so a large national uniform swing would put it in contention, but come on be serious this is paul ryan

they aren't releasing the bill cuz he doesn't want any of his shakier votes being on the receiving end of constituent outrage

xp

but come on be serious this is paul ryan

relevant case study: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Cantor

granted that was because of a primary loss but there are some parallels re: grassroots revolt unseating a majority leader

the most recent attempt to primary paul ryan from the right didn't go well.

right, and this would be a challenge from the left so it's not a 1-1 analogy but still, it's worth a shot

they aren't releasing the bill cuz he doesn't want any of his shakier votes being on the receiving end of constituent outrage

― Οὖτις, 20. juni 2017 19:15 (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

But how does this work? At some point, they have to release the bill, and then vote on it, and the worst thing that can happen is to not get it done before recess, which is June 30th. So... Why wait at all, why not get the vote done as soon as you know you have something that will pass?

If McConnell is afraid of anything, it's the public seeing enough of the bill to organize the kinds of protests that killed the House bill in March, that's why

Yes, which is why the bill should not be public during recess. Which is why it would be smarter to send it to CBO and vote on it as soon as possible.

What I'm trying to get at is: Why didn't they release it last week and vote today? Or schedule the vote on Monday? What are the complications they are waiting on, other than getting the votes? Is there some procedural thing I don't get? Honest question.

probably cuz the bill wasn't even written as of last week. They're finishing up the details, releasing it Thursday, scoring it by the CBO as quickly as possible, and then immediately voting on it.

But why care about details if they already have the votes...

I seem to recall a Supreme Court case about sloppy wording in the ACA bill. Seems like they need to run it through some Constitutional software or something.

But why care about details if they already have the votes...

writing legislation is a complicated process and there's bound to be some fiddling at the margins to make sure everyone's pet issues are adequately addressed.

I seem to recall a Supreme Court case about sloppy wording in the ACA bill. Seems like they need to run it through some Constitutional software or something.

― President Keyes, Tuesday, June 20, 2017 1:37 PM

Nino is dead.

ie people saying "I will vote for this if you add [this provision]" - someone still has to write that provision

xp

But if they haven't even written provisions yet, how do they imagine getting a CBO score by Tuesday?

GOP members are saying they haven't even seen the bill yet. Here's my thesis: McConnell is overplaying his hand, thinking that releasing it as close to recess as possible will increase the pressure on reluctant voters to vote for it. He doesn't have the votes. Yet. He could very well get the votes, but he doesn't have the votes, and he needs the pressure because his bill is worse than we expect.

McConnell is overplaying his hand

this is not a thing he is known for

McConnell is overplaying his hand

McConnell claims they've been feeding CBO details bit by bit all along so what they are essentially doing is revising things they've already been given.

idk why this is so mysterious to you

I don't disagree that he's using the rapidity of the schedule to pressure votes but that is standard op procedure for a smart majority leader - you exert as much pressure as you can right up until you reach the tipping vote, then you immediately call a vote before anybody has time to change their mind. LBJ did this repeatedly, and so has every smart majority leader since.

I agree. Which is why I don't think he has the tipping vote as of yet ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

like I said, the tell that he has the votes is that he is letting details of his schedule leak to the press. Someone like McConnell does this build momentum and pressure shakier votes, but it isn't the kind of thing you do unless you know you are safely past the margin of error.

McConnell is smarter/cannier than Ryan who was dumb enough to schedule a floor vote and then have to immediately pull it, which made him look like a schmuck.

how do you think mcconnell feels about this sort of thing

Spicer on healthcare bill: "The president clearly wants a bill that has heart in it."
(Trump called House bill "mean" last week)

— Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) June 20, 2017

currently looking like optimal scenario is:
2017: ACA repeal
2018: Dems take House, Trump agenda crippled
2020: Trump loses re-election bid, President Harris/Franken/Gillibrand/Warren takes office, Dems get at least 51-seat majority in the Senate
2021: Single-payer

xp

http://www.theonion.com/article/panicking-mitch-mcconnell-shoves-entire-senate-hea-56289

Someone like McConnell does this build momentum and pressure shakier votes, but it isn't the kind of thing you do unless you know you are safely past the margin of error.

― Οὖτις, 20. juni 2017 19:57 (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This just seems self-evidently self-contradictory to me... If he's safely past the margin of error, who cares about shakier votes. (To me the tell is that McConnell insists on June 30th, and has insisted on June 30th all along, but that other members of the leadership are saying it's more of an aspiration.)

I realize I'm bullshitting, even more than usual, because even if they release a bill this Thursday and passes it by next Friday, I can say they didn't have the votes today. So it doesn't really matter no matter what. I just don't get why they are cutting it so close if they're playing from a position of strength.

I have answered all your questions. yr own yr own now.

frederik, americans can be assholes (even senators) and enjoy pulling power plays and fucking with people's heads. we (sort of) elected a bully. think bully tactics when the cruelty of our politics confuse you

he got his 51 votes, he lets details leak, which is essentially a shot across the bow to shakier committed votes saying "you said you would vote 'yes', now I'm calling your vote in and if you screw me and change yr vote EVERYONE will know it's because of you and your faithless betrayal of me and my party btw I will murder your career if you do this"

it is not particularly mysterious

Yeah, but the thing is, you're wrong.

"The president clearly wants a bill that has heart in it."

I'm sure there's heart in it. Probably snouts. And I'm guessing rodent feces as well. The best sausage, the greatest.

The idea of a vote before June 30th came long before this week's leaks. That is, long before you say he got the votes.

Maybe we just wait and see what happens? I think they have the votes now, but one or two waverers could be peaked off once CBO details are out.

2017: ACA repeal
2018: Dems take House, Trump agenda crippled
2020: Trump loses re-election bid, President Harris/Franken/Gillibrand/Warren takes office, Dems get at least 51-seat majority in the Senate
2021: Single-payer

lol

Thats Americans - the real Klignons

Thats Americans - the real Klignons

hey I said "optimal" not "likely"

xp

Hm hm hm

NEWS: Senate Russia investigators promised access to key Treasury data from FinCEN - https://t.co/qFTZAVjDaz https://t.co/HleUUr2Hf3

— Tom LoBianco (@tomlobianco) June 20, 2017

""This morning, Treasury briefed me on documents that are being transmitted to the Senate. I believe these documents will be sufficient to start following the money.""

some reall deep thrt stuff now

Wacky fun!

Does the president believe Russia interfered in 2016 campaign? Spicer: "I have not sat down and talked with him about that specific thing."

— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) June 20, 2017

Meantime, great.

While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 20, 2017

2021: Single-payer

Too many sitting senators learned their political truisms in earlier battles over health care and would be unwilling to put their careers on the line against the insurance companies and their ability to propagate irrational fear through calculated misinformation.

At least I know China tried! Katy Lied

a lot's gonna happen between now and 2021 Aimless, incl single-payer in California.

happy for you

in a nutshell!

https://theintercept.com/2017/03/09/paul-ryan-fundraised-with-health-insurance-lobbying-firm-just-before-his-powerpoint/

our bribed government