sorry. brain fart. eastward would be into ocean waters. my mistake.
― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 28 November 2017 19:10 (six years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DPvghdWVoAAF96t.jpg
― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Tuesday, 28 November 2017 19:19 (six years ago) link
Basically, they're launching them straight up, even a bit to the West countering Earth rotation, so that they don't stray too far from telemetry range. Any ballistic missile capable of travelling 6700 km (as Hwasong-14) is also capable of going of travelling a couple thousand km straight up. Anything that reached 2000 km altitude would take at least 10 minutes to climb that far and 10 minutes to fall.
― Sanpaku, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 19:22 (six years ago) link
this world sucks
― flappy bird, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 19:50 (six years ago) link
I can't blame NK. Look what not having a credible deterrent did for Saddam.
― Sanpaku, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 19:56 (six years ago) link
in this world i take a moment to google the distance from earth to the moon, in km, just in case
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 19:56 (six years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DPv1UfRXUAE-7eG.png
― calzino, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 20:57 (six years ago) link
the question is what happens when they get fully capable nukes and then do something nobody wants them to do or ask for something nobody is prepared to give them.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 20:59 (six years ago) link
They are capable enough now. But there wasn’t a good military solutio even if we went back in time and asked that question. Also important to remember that China and Russia became nuclear states and it’s probably good that our negotiating position wasn’t as unrealistic as our current “denuclearize” terms w DPRK.
― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 22:05 (six years ago) link
Well, Russia going nuclear dictated the terms of US foreign policy for almost half a century, and in that conflict we came as close to nuclear Armageddon as ever before, so there's that. But assuming NK behaves like every other nuclear power, more or less, then a nuclear NK won't be any different than a non-nuclear NK. They'll just keep to themselves and do their thing.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 22:09 (six years ago) link
DPRK engages in a fair amount of military provocation and saber rattling. These are likely to continue as part of 'doing their thing', but so far these have only led to minimal bloodshed outside its own borders.
― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 28 November 2017 22:50 (six years ago) link
Pretty much. The audience for the launches, the saber rattling, and the reports of belicosity from the U.S., is the North Korean people.
Kim et al knows that they launch a nuke and a dozen will fly back. Their intention is to a) maintain domestic war footing propaganda, and b) deter a preemptive American strike. Game theory wise, its a pretty stable situation so long as NK maintains deterrence, and outsiders don't try to start the coup ending the rule of Kim and his allied elites. It's a pity for those trapped within.
It's obvious that the Pentagon is not so keen on preemptive strikes. Plus, major parts of the defense budget are predicated on hostilities with this imp.
― Sanpaku, Tuesday, 28 November 2017 23:09 (six years ago) link
genocidal rhetoric https://t.co/WTFpvMYSGl— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) November 29, 2017
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 29 November 2017 16:26 (six years ago) link
Holodomor-ica.
― Wes Brodicus, Wednesday, 29 November 2017 20:09 (six years ago) link
Xpost Sanctions on that level would be indefensibly evil and definitely start a world war.
― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Wednesday, 29 November 2017 20:42 (six years ago) link
Sanctions on that level would be an act of war.
― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, 29 November 2017 20:46 (six years ago) link
DPRK would call it an act of war and people wouldn’t realize the serious level of escalation we were at because they’ve been calling various things an “act of war” for years now.
― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Wednesday, 29 November 2017 21:02 (six years ago) link
dprk continues to develop icbm nuclear capability juche military first ideologyincreasing free market liberalization on the dl u.s. imperialist saber rattlingeverything is fine20 years laterwe're allfriends
― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Wednesday, 29 November 2017 21:04 (six years ago) link
is there a thread for missile defense? i don't really want to start a new one, but this NYT article about how a recent SCUD missile from Yemen almost certainly was NOT shot down by Saudi defense batteries - contrary to what was claimed at the time - reminded me of my general anxiety about how unlikely it is that a nuclear weapon could successfully be intercepted, especially given the amount of time that would elapse before a countershot would even be fired (since the defender would probably want to be absolutely certain that it wasn't a false alarm before launching a counterattack).
my (obviously and admittedly limited ) understanding is that the "star wars"/SDI defense system was deeply flawed and basically a complete failure despite massive investment. have things changed since then?
― Karl Malone, Monday, 4 December 2017 21:35 (six years ago) link
dprk continues to develop icbm nuclear capability juche military first ideologyincreasing free market liberalization on the dlu.s. imperialist saber rattlingeverything is fine20 years laterwe're allfriends― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Wednesday, 29 November 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Wednesday, 29 November 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
eating plumsout of the iceboxso sweet and so colddelicious
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 4 December 2017 23:11 (six years ago) link
depends who you ask, Karl.
xp
― Lyudmila Pavlichenko (dandydonweiner), Monday, 4 December 2017 23:51 (six years ago) link
Hush! The fact that the SDI missile defense is a deeply flawed, massively expensive complete failure is classified information which must be kept from our enemies.
― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 5 December 2017 01:26 (six years ago) link
SDI is probably a complete failure compared to its initial goal of permitting a US nuclear first strike against the Soviet Union. There would be way too much radar clutter in the commies retaliatory strike from first/second stage debris for targeting, and it isn't difficult to add indistinguishable decoys to the payloads. Plus building bullet to hit another bullet is just intrinsically hard.
Against NK, there's a chance that the redundancy of launch phase and midcourse interceptors would work against a single launch. Which is why if I were NK, my retaliation would already be sitting in a basement somewhere in LA or NY.
On the other hand, military research boondoggles are how we fund a lot of basic science and engineering education in the US.
― Sanpaku, Tuesday, 5 December 2017 02:06 (six years ago) link
Another data point: Saudi Arabia's upgraded Patriot missiles failed to intercept Houthi launched ballistic missile in 5 out of 5 launches.
― Sanpaku, Tuesday, 5 December 2017 23:35 (six years ago) link
When not operated by US crews, the Patriot and its descendants perform poorly, it’s true.
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 6 December 2017 00:15 (six years ago) link
military research boondoggles are how we fund a lot of basic science and engineering education in the US.which makes them sort of not boondoggles? No more so than that fusion reactor that 20 some odd countries are building in the south of France or wherever
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 6 December 2017 00:17 (six years ago) link
you mean ITER? not a boondoggle.
― the late great, Wednesday, 6 December 2017 00:27 (six years ago) link
Buck Turgidson lives
Using plausible estimates, I find that (under optimistic assumptions) 87% of western pundits are functionally insane https://t.co/NZ12E2IgfL by @kevinrogerjames pic.twitter.com/ydbiRmvRr7— Jon Schwarz (@schwarz) December 6, 2017
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 6 December 2017 18:17 (six years ago) link
oof. i guess i'm glad @kevinrogerjames only has about a dozen followers on twitter
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 6 December 2017 18:24 (six years ago) link
the thin line between satire and reality in dr strangelove is quickly dissolving
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 6 December 2017 18:25 (six years ago) link
it was always mighty thin... the only reason the film is a comedy is they tried to write it 'straight' and kept laughing.
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 6 December 2017 18:29 (six years ago) link
not sure how substantive a shift this actually is but this seems positive to me
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said tonight the U.S. would be willing to enter negotiations with North Korea without requiring that it agree beforehand to give up its nuclear weapons program.— NPR (@NPR) December 12, 2017
― global tetrahedron, Tuesday, 12 December 2017 22:59 (six years ago) link
Some disagreements on that. Interesting back and forth in this thread from NK watchers.
Don't strain yourself too hard looking for change in NK policy from Tillerson. 1) Nothing he's said is new for the US position, and 2) nobody believes Tillerson speaks for Trump, not least NK— Van Jackson (@WonkVJ) December 12, 2017
― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Tuesday, 12 December 2017 23:23 (six years ago) link
FFS
White House says not right time for North Korea talks, despite Tillerson overture https://t.co/rmT79dOTXg pic.twitter.com/rGEdw9c4SL— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) December 13, 2017
― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Wednesday, 13 December 2017 19:50 (six years ago) link
While we are playing, people starve
― xyzzzz__, Monday, 18 December 2017 15:08 (six years ago) link
there's been for the past few years, a disagreement on how much north korea is suffering, with people like lankov on one side N Korea and the myth of starvation arguing that upwards of 70% of people are making money in private market ventures / food is being exported to china / reforms in agriculture have fixed a few lingering problems -- but even he agrees that most people are chronically malnourished and some regions of the country have remained basically as shitty as they were a decade before-- and aid workers, who still report that people are starving.
i hope it comes across on this thread but i'm sympathetic to north korea. i think sanctions should be lifted. the u.s. trying to starve out the kim regime isn't working and is unnecessarily cruel.
but at the same time the government of the dprk has a history of using starvation as a weapon against the north korean people. In North Korea, hunger isn’t a function of production, but of state policy -- so, like lankov is right and things are improving, for example, people are being allowed to tend their own private plots, but those harvests have often been seized by the state. and these private plots are only sorta tolerated Farmers Baffled by Order Reversal / North Korea orders all privately cultivated crops to be cut down even though they're feeding at least half of all north koreans: State policy controls how much food is imported, how much is spent on things like fertilizer and machinery, who can grow what and where, what can be sold, how much is seized from those who grow and sell it, where the harvest goes once it’s collected, who gets a ration and how much, and how effectively foreign aid agencies can deliver aid. -- the border with china being more tightly sealed is also a factor, and also the government going after remittances (and also sanctions trying to hit remittances, too).
― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Monday, 18 December 2017 17:02 (six years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGinGQrofos
― infinity (∞), Monday, 18 December 2017 19:20 (six years ago) link
not sure if it's been posted before, but a great series of blog posts on a couple of friends who traveled by train from Vienna to Pyongyang. The photos as they travel from Siberia through North Korea down to Pyongyang are fantastic.
― Fizzles, Wednesday, 27 December 2017 11:22 (six years ago) link
that is super old
p sure we talked abt it a few yrs ago and posted the link
thats rly the best way to see the real nk but very difficult to get in thru there especially now
― infinity (∞), Wednesday, 27 December 2017 17:02 (six years ago) link
https://www.ft.com/content/21a0407e-eadd-11e7-bd17-521324c81e23
― Lyudmila Pavlichenko (dandydonweiner), Wednesday, 27 December 2017 21:31 (six years ago) link
The last New Yorker piece where the guy had gone a few times in previous years and returned not long after some incendiary Trump tweets was really good. Also recounts meeting with NK diplomats in New York.
― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Wednesday, 27 December 2017 21:55 (six years ago) link
love that blog of photos of the trip from austria to pyongyang, great stuff
― ogmor, Thursday, 28 December 2017 01:16 (six years ago) link
Looking at that football game above, I wondered briefly which colour uniform was the DPRK until I saw the women in red looming almost a head taller than the Japanese team. That's not a typical characteristic of Koreans compared to Japanese people is it?
― attention vampire (MatthewK), Thursday, 28 December 2017 01:59 (six years ago) link
South Koreans tend to be slightly taller than Japanese peopleI assume this applies to healthy North Koreans, as well. The North Korean men I’ve met have mostly all been around 5’8”-10”, with very few being taller and bigger (fatter)
― infinity (∞), Thursday, 28 December 2017 02:26 (six years ago) link
The height of the North Korean women I’ve met has varied a lot more, from 5’0” to 5’8”
― infinity (∞), Thursday, 28 December 2017 02:29 (six years ago) link
Tall Asians: C or D?
― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Friday, 29 December 2017 15:55 (six years ago) link
i want to say something on this north korea thread about oil shipments. i think the situation is interesting not because it shows the chinese are violating sanctions--maybe they are but not with ship-to-ship transfers of refined fuel probably--but the power of the informal economy where i assume this oil is going and the problem of enforcing any of these sanctions. all along the road, it's been the same situation anyways, where the kim regime gets what they need and forces the rest of the population to fend for themselves.
there are much easier ways to violate sanctions-- i mean they could have just ran ships to nk harbors and sold oil and then denied it, too. but there's a pipeline that's exempt from sanctions (because they can't turn it off without damaging it) that runs from the liaodong peninsula to sinuiji and north korean refineries. ship-to-ship transfers of refined petroleum sounds like smuggling-- chinese authorities just seized a few days before this a shipment of smuggled fuel meant for ship-to-ship transfers.
russia is far less enthusiastic about sanctions and still probably aren't thrilled about the huge amount of smuggling by russian ships -- but it's proof i guess that there's big money in smuggling oil right now, especially as sanctions hit. the price of oil in north korea has risen which makes smuggling profitable. if china is defying sanctions they'd be sending it thru the pipeline or running ships. oil is still moving but it's harder for people working in the burgeoning market economy to get it, if the state is getting the small supply, and they've got money to spend on fuel from chinese profiteers, or russian ones.
with established smuggling routes + evidence of a huge operation conducted by smugglers to bring in refined petroleum, it's harder than you might think to shut down fuel smuggling. when you're talking the chinese northeast + dprk + russian far east, lots of people trying to make money off the situation, deep deep corruption... it's hard to say, you know, just stop the boats and enforce sanctions! southern europe has a problem with organized crime bringing in oil from isis, even.
― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Friday, 29 December 2017 16:09 (six years ago) link
Now the regime has decided to let its people invest directly in production, and thus seems to have de facto legalized ‘pseudo-state property.’ If this is true and if the regime does not renege on such commitments, North Korea’s economy could see an investment boom as more private investors feel free to create new, larger businesses, under the cover of the state. That said, without outside support, the necessary longer-term investments in infrastructure will probably not be possible due to a scarcity of funds.
http://www.38north.org/2017/12/pward122117/
i would buy a theory that china is overlooking something like smuggling fuel because it helps keep alive players in the new market economy which are the most effective element there is pushing north korea toward reform.
― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Friday, 29 December 2017 16:16 (six years ago) link
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/29/574508075/south-korea-seizes-ship-suspected-of-at-sea-oil-transfer-to-benefit-north-korea
The Hong Kong-flagged ship was chartered by Taiwanese company Billions Bunker Group and previously visited South Korea's Yeosu Port on Oct. 11 to load up on Japanese refined oil and head to its claimed destination in Taiwan, the authorities noted.Instead of going to Taiwan, however, the vessel transferred the oil to a North Korean ship, the Sam Jong 2, and three other non-North Korean vessels in international waters, they said.
Instead of going to Taiwan, however, the vessel transferred the oil to a North Korean ship, the Sam Jong 2, and three other non-North Korean vessels in international waters, they said.
― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Friday, 29 December 2017 18:23 (six years ago) link
"rare" a/k/a the exact same thing he says every new years pic.twitter.com/kOKvzUgwtO— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) January 2, 2018
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 January 2018 20:39 (six years ago) link