Democratic (Party) Direction

i got Online Harassed for weeks after my org put out our "please vote for clinton" statement because i was known as the Online Guy. it was the first time the ragehose of that election cycle got turned on me and on the one hand it was awful ("wow is this what it's like to be a clinton supporter online holy shit") but on the other hand the whole thing was so nasty & the faces so unfamiliar that i was bewildered it was purportedly coming from what seemed like the same community of lefties i'd spent so much time building with that year. strangers with unfamiliar faces telling me in startingly personal terms that i was killing democracy. like we'd tripped some kind of wire & something bigger than we understood had proceeded to fire on us.

Sort of in line with my broader impression that there genuinely is such a thing as clinton derangement syndrome, but that the flipside of that is clinton bunker mentality, where nothing bad anyone says about her can possibly be true and everything must be deflected. You can see a lot of this in the comments on her recent apology for protecting a sexual harasser, with supporters saying stuff like "Why should she even be apologizing when there's a sexual predator in the White House?"

oh man but what about clinton supporters

they need to MOVE ON

ugh, listening to the morning shift radio show, here in chicago, and they're talking about ANOTHER Kennedy (Christopher, son of Robert). apparently he's having some trouble gaining traction in the race for governor. the regular guest for the segment, some democratic strategist guy, is arguing that he needs to get his family in the state "criss-cross the state for a few weeks", "get their faces on tv", and "remind voters of the great family that he descends from".

yeah now that sucks

He is the victim of Bissmentum

gotta love that the (former? i hope) frontrunner is literally a billionaire named pritzker.

there were absolutely 4chan provocateurs introducing nasty fake beef into the teenage quarrels of tumblr SJWs from around 2014 (possibly earlier): tbh i find it quite hard to believe that (lessons learned: it works) something similar wasn't happening to amplify angry divides (very hard to smooth over absent electoral success) between the main online wings of the dems from 2016

absolutely

on another subject:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/02/democrats-are-changing-their-minds-about-race.html

The first signs of these shifts coincided with the rise of Black Lives Matter and the Dreamer movement. Recent research on the Civil Rights Movement suggests that the movement meaningfully shifted white racial attitudes in a more liberal direction. In addition, these movements work to build racial solidarity among black, Latino, and Asian-American Democrats, leading them to become more racially liberal. Second, young people might have been particularly influenced by the presidency of Barack Obama and the subsequent rise of Trump, especially given evidence that presidential evaluations strongly shape people’s political views when they are young. It’s very plausible both of these developments engendered greater compassion for African-Americans and awareness of racial inequalities, especially among the youth. But whatever the cause, the effect is the same: politics will never be the same.

I have never been less likely to read the comments than on that piece.

why would you ever read the comments on any piece

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/01/white-suggests-gop-donation-was-business-career/

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew White has made half a dozen political donations at the federal level over the years. One stands out.

In December 2005, White gave $2,500 to the Kentucky Republican Party — over a third of his total giving for federal races dating back to 2004, according to Federal Election Commission records.

hey, Trump gave to the Clintons. Big tent.

Perez out there taking a bold stance

.@TomPerez: "We should be working to make sure everybody has access to affordable, quality health care."

Tom is a #HealthCareVoter. Share your video and tell us why you're a #HealthCareVoter, too. pic.twitter.com/pFO1roRn0g

— Health Care Voter (@HealthCareVoter) February 1, 2018

i'm not even going to click to find out whether that is meant to be some kind of single-issue rallying hashtag but

jesus come on dems why is your messaging such shit

Even Tom Perez's face is weak messaging

bernie's face now that's a face, sends clear powerful messages

So let's talk about raising and spending money as a House challenger because Randy Bryce (Ryan's challenger) spending almost a million dollars in the 4th Quarter of 2017 is ridiculous

— David Beard (@dwbeard) February 3, 2018

This thread captures the conventional wisdom of how you're supposed to win a Congressional campaign. Hoard as much money as possible, then blow it on advertising in the fall: https://t.co/t5hDhprGEj

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) February 3, 2018

This works *if* you goal is to win a minimum of seats and secure one to two terms incrementalism.

This weekend we are knocking on hundreds of doors and asking voters what matters to them—that’s how you win. Listening to “hold your money” pundits is you maintain the status quo. https://t.co/m4bzbAKXtZ

— Paul Spencer (@cantbuypaul) February 3, 2018

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/2018-fundraising-democrats-republicans-389868

really pulling hard for Randy, not only because unseating Paul Ryan would be amazing, but also because I want the Dems to see what happens when you throw an actual liberal out there

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/2018-fundraising-democrats-republicans-389868

― j., Monday, February 5, 2018 3:39 PM (twenty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

love the narrative pendulum here

"democrats should be panicking! polls!"

"republicans should be panicking! funding!"

Various ways to look at fundraising from that Politico article--

But Republicans, including Bliss, also noted that the money raised by Democrats will first be spent in potentially bruising primaries, draining Democrats’ war chests ahead of the general election.

Democrats “will spend their money [in] a June primary trying to make new friends, only to lose in November,” said Cam Savage, a GOP consultant advising Faso, who added that the congressman won by an eight-point margin in 2016.

Democrats, however, believe that the fundraising surge won’t diminish after the primaries because the “biggest injection of energy for Democrats is reading the front page every day, and that’s not going away,” said John Lapp, a Democratic consultant who ran the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's independent-expenditure unit in the 2006 cycle.

....Republican outside groups can also shore up weak GOP members. The Congressional Leadership Fund and American Action Network, its sister organization, raised more than $66 million in 2017, and “January [2018] was, by far, the best month we’ve had this cycle,” Bliss said.

That outside-group commitment worries Lapp, who said that “when you look at $35 million the Koch brothers spent on that tax plan, then you know they are similarly getting ready to go to spend that kind of dark, special-interest money in the general election,”

Democrats “will spend their money [in] a June primary trying to make new friends, only to lose in November,”

The grain of truth here is that voters pay less attention to candidates early in the election cycle, so that a big surge of spending in the fall on a smear campaign can define your opponent in the minds of lots of voters and swing the message to how horrible and frightening your opponent is.

The counter argument would be the voters already know how much they dislike your own candidate from experience and nothing prevents the Democrat from continuing to raise money. That Republican consultant seems to assume that working people have no money and after they give $20 in January they're tapped out for the year.

Nice feature on Abdul El-Sayed, progressive candidate for governor in Michigan:

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018/02/could-abdul-el-sayed-be-the-real-deal

Pretty good: https://thebaffler.com/blessed-and-brightest/the-reboot-of-the-elites

Pretty good: https://thebaffler.com/blessed-and-brightest/the-reboot-of-the-elites🕸

Pretty good: https://thebaffler.com/blessed-and-brightest/the-reboot-of-the-elites🕸

Well I skipped to the end and oh man he lays it on the Brookings Institution whoa shit

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/gop-allied-groups-heavily-outspend-democrats-in-special-pennsylvania-election/2018/02/05/4ed46e94-0a8b-11e8-8890-372e2047c935_story.html?utm_term=.29d59c75f6ef

Dems aren't spending money here

Trump won that district by 19 points. The Dem challenger is now less than 10 points behind the incumbent Republican, so that's vaguely nice in terms of reading tea leaves about voters shifts leading up to November, but it's not really exciting in any practical terms.

http://www.clickhole.com/article/connecting-heartland-dnc-has-paid-manhattan-consul-7318

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/06/nancy-pelosi-house-democrats-395924

Nancy Pelosi is betting everything on taking back the House in November, and most Democrats are confident they’ll pull it off. But what happens if they fail?

A stealthy discussion is already underway within the Democratic Caucus, particularly among members whose only experience in Congress is in the minority.

Assuming Pelosi either leaves on her own or is pressured to step down, her exit would trigger a messy battle between the party’s old guard, led by House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), and the party’s younger members, represented by House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.).

It’s a generational showdown that's been put off for years, but one that Democrats might not be able to be avoid much longer.

"It will be an intraparty war. That's what you can expect,” said Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.), who predicted a "mass exodus" of Democrats if they don't win the House in November. "That's at the highest levels of leadership and at the committee level."

Hoyer, 78, has served as No. 2 House Democrat since 2003 and has a reserve of loyalty and experience on his side. Crowley, 55, would offer a newer perspective, having been in leadership only since 2013. Right now, it’s a toss up who would get the job in a post-Pelosi world.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/house-democrats-illinois-primary-newman-lipinski/552599/?utm_source=atltw

good

otm

xp, does Crowley really constitute that much of a potential break from Pelosi? I thought he was another middle-of-the-road machine guy

good

― Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Wednesday, February 7, 2018 11:50 AM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm

― I want to change my display name (dan m), Wednesday, February 7, 2018

otm

also listen i know some people think manchin is the only democrat west virginia will ever produce but my god was he high trying to get people to sign a don't-campaign-against-your-fellow-congressmen pledge on the senate floor or what

gotta love when a congressman puts so much effort into legislation that helps himself more than anyone else on earth

or a pledge, rather, not legislation

need to start a "this other facial expression" w/ this pic of lipinski

Can the Democratic Party’s Left Flank Win in 2018? This Illinois Primary Could Be a Bellwether: https://t.co/NswcvbLdDv @Marie4Congress @OurRevolution pic.twitter.com/5Tk32ZRKzv

— In These Times (@inthesetimesmag) February 8, 2018

Lipinski photograph has a kinda Tom Cruisey thing going on

https://www.biography.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cg_face%2Cq_80%2Cw_300/MTE5NDg0MDU0OTM2NTg1NzQz/tom-cruise-9262645-1-402.jpg

Nancy Pelosi is betting everything on taking back the House in November, and most Democrats are confident they’ll pull it off.

I'm a Democrat and I'm definitely not confident of this. The lines are drawn to protect Republican incumbents and the odds are they're not gonna change. Democrats can take the majority but they're fighitng uphill; they'll have to win by 8-10 points in the popular vote, and that just doesn't happen that often.

The recent PA decision might change that math at least slightly, although it's starting to look like they'll have to send the national guard in to actually enforce it.

looks like the holder/obama group on gerrymandering is starting to kick into gear.

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — A Democratic group backed by former President Barack Obama said this week it plans to invest millions of dollars in state-level elections in 11 states this year, with its heaviest focus on Ohio.

The group is targeting races in 11 states, including nine gubernatorial races, 18 legislative chambers, two ballot initiatives and two down-ballot races. Eight more states are on the committee’s watch list.

In Ohio, a perennial political battleground, the committee plans to support Democrats for five offices — governor, auditor, secretary of state, Ohio Senate and Ohio House — as well as pushing a redistricting ballot measure.

Other target races include:

— Colorado: Governor, state Senate

— Florida: Governor, state Senate

— Georgia: Governor, state Senate

— Michigan: Governor, state Senate, state House, ballot initiative

— Minnesota: Governor, state Senate, state House

— Nevada: Governor, state Senate, state House

— North Carolina: State Senate, state House

— Pennsylvania: Governor, state Senate, state House

— Texas: State Senate, state House

— Wisconsin: Governor, state Senate

The group also participated in the Virginia House last year, and has targeted both its House and Senate in 2019.

On its watch list are ballot initiatives in Arizona, Missouri, South Dakota and Utah; the governor’s and state Senate races in Maine; and the governor’s, state Senate and state House races in New Hampshire.

Needs more attorneys general

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/10/democrats-special-elections-organizing-401365

story on some DLCC (!= DNC) action

Cool

Louisiana's Democratic governor endorses work requirements for Medicaid: https://t.co/CqcVEM8dqY

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) February 11, 2018