US Politics, September 2018: having a nervous breakdown

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fgifimage.net%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F08%2Fwhy-not-both-animated-gif-7.gif&f=1

Why not both?

haha!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E88HEuwInno

It’s beyond fucked up that that gif is captioned in English imo

i've only ever seen it as a gif!

I feel like the most heroic act a high-level WH aide could undertake at this point is to walk into a meeting with Trump bragging about, for instance, how much rat poison he'd consumed last night, asserting that it might have been the most rat poison ever consumed by a human being, and that he's absolutely sure that only a real man could ever break his record.

Not sure what the point is? 538 was much more accurate on the 2016 election than other sources.

haha, not to relive that dreadful evening but 538's optimism was still shining bright while Nate Cohn/NYT/Upshot was showing the dread much, much, much earlier than 538, like as soon as the bulk of Florida returns were coming in.

I even want to say 538 was pretty much in denial until the election was called, leading Nate Silver to write like several pieces over the next few days explaining how probability/statistics work to laypeople but ultimately eating a lot of crow at the margin at which Trump prevailed (which his model only forecasted something like <1% of the time).

someone make a sitcom of Trimp's West Wing immediately it sounds hilarious!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsW-atvN9y0

I wish I could remember the source but I remember some university predicting Bernie for the win which I think probably could have been accurate as some people feel bernie's chances were unfairly squashed by the democratic party so he never got the chance

Hmm, what you say is intersting, let us speculate on it for 9,571 posts plz

ITS A CONSPIRACY MANNN!!!

well that's it i'm voting for Trump and moving to the Steve Hoffman boards

seems weird to judge a model by whether it exactly matched the exact margin of victory or how gloomy they sounded on election night. they gave trump better odds than many or most observers, and in texty pieces went out of their way to sound bet-hedgey rather than calling it outright for clinton. it's appropriate to approach their 3-in-4 chance for the dems taking the house with the same awareness that that also means a 1-in-4 chance the GOP holds on to it.

although there's only a fifty percent chance of that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDoncJckows

538's model waited for individual states to be called before changing its odds, it wasn't optimistic or in denial, it lacked sentience

I guess one factor that can be hard to account for is"how many people will actually turn out to vote"?

Former Senator Jon Kyl will be named as John McCain's replacement in Arizona, but has committed to serving only until January.

so then there's a special election after that?

And I understand that David Merdyr is the leading GOP contender to ultimately win the seat legitimately (although he faces stiff competition from William Hommyside).

-_-

no xmas for jon kyls

xpost Very familiar with that expression, as you might imagine.

"Trump told Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, a wealthy investor eight years his senior: “I don’t trust you. I don’t want you doing any more negotiations. … You’re past your prime.”"

America loves some one who insults others- now we have an insulty prez

Entertainment!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/04/transcript-phone-call-between-president-trump-journalist-bob-woodward/?utm_term=.c284e99cbfe7

Over the course of 11-plus minutes, Trump repeatedly claimed his White House staff hadn't informed him of Woodward's interview request -- despite also admitting Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) had told him Woodward wanted to talk. He also started the phone call by saying Woodward had "always been fair" to him, but by the end said the book would be "inaccurate."

cletus wept

some of the juicier/terrifying bits from woodward's book, via TPM:

Trump constantly mocks and puts down his own staff

Trump called former Chief of Staff Reince Priebus a “little rat” who “scurries around”
Trump said former Former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster dresses like a “beer salesman”
Trump told Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross that he was “past his prime” and that he didn’t trust him to make deals
Trump said that Attorney General Jeff Sessions is “mentally retarded” and a “dumb Southerner”

White House staffers often mock the President behind his back and fight internally

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said that Trump has the understanding of “a fifth or sixth grader”
Chief of Staff John Kelly called Trump an “idiot” and said that being his chief of staff was “the worst job” he ever had
Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon called Ivanka Trump just a “goddamn staffer” —she retorted that as first daughter, she would never be a regular staffer

Trump told Mattis to “fucking kill” Assad

Trump told Mattis to “fucking kill” Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad after he attacked his own people, and Mattis ignored the order and deescalated the situation after the President left. Trump also reportedly asked for plans of a preemptive military strike on North Korea only one month into his presidency.

- i think that last bit about his impulses with north korea and assad are relevant to the debate going on in this thread a few days ago about the "real" damage that trump has done, or is capable of. holy shit, that is terrifying. and yes, the counterpoint is that he was held in check by his own staff and didn't end up getting what he wanted (similar to a lot of his domestic policy ineffectiveness). my counterpoint to this hypothetical counterpoint is that while his domestic failures at least partially play out in public or in ways that we can track, that's not true of his foreign policy and attempts at making war. he's being held in check by certain people and their personalities, not facts or reason, and despite constant leaks about how unhinged trump is and tirades in the oval office and all that bullshit, we don't really have any idea of what's going on in there. that is scary.

- sad lol at southern republicans who think a NYC real estate asshole wearing a cheap-ass red hat understands them or cares about them.

“You’re a goddamn staffer!” Bannon screamed at her, telling her that she had to work through Priebus like other aides. “You walk around this place and act like you’re in charge, and you’re not. You’re on staff!”

Ivanka Trump, who had special access to the president and worked around Priebus, replied: “I’m not a staffer! I’ll never be a staffer. I’m the first daughter.”

Now there's a Netflix series waiting to happen!

FIRST DAUGHTER

remember when people were upset that they were called deplorable

"So I have another bad book coming out. Big deal."

if he *had* killed Assad, a huge chunk of the American media would have said that it was the day he finally became President

that would have been a crazy day in the media, but i think it would be forgotten quickly as actual world war III would start soon afterward

Doesn’t the assad assassination thing complicate the narrative that he is promoting Russia’s interests?

jesus, that woodward interview transcript, it’s like a fucking Turing test with a computer programmed to respond with trump’s favourite phrases

So re: that phone call with Woodward, I guess Trump actually can stay mostly focused on a single topic for 10+ minutes when a) the topic is him and b) he's lying his ass off.

I mean, y'know, ''''''''focused''''''''.

Doesn’t the assad assassination thing complicate the narrative that he is promoting Russia’s interests?

shhhhhhh

Hope burning Nike products is effecting Republican pockets more than the environment.
Campaign itself looks good & hope the firm does have contracts for NFL uniforms for the foreseeable future.

What the hell does killing Assad have to do with Russian interests?</trumpbrain>

Like, I think, maybe, perhaps, it could be that y'all are giving Donald Trump's capacity for nuanced thought a little too much credit.

I would wager that any move he's made counter to Russian interests has been inadvertent on his part (although perhaps presented as intentional after the fact) or done under duress.

I even want to say 538 was pretty much in denial until the election was called, leading Nate Silver to write like several pieces over the next few days explaining how probability/statistics work to laypeople but ultimately eating a lot of crow at the margin at which Trump prevailed (which his model only forecasted something like <1% of the time).

― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), 4. september 2018 18:10 (fifty-three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I'm not sure where you've got that, but that's definitely wrong. It might have been less than 1% of getting exactly 304 electoral votes, but it's much more than 1% of getting AT LEAST 304 electoral votes: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

for some reason I get the feeling that thr leverage Putin has over Trumb is he has a video of him peeing on hookers.

seems like nto such a big deal to be reshaping the world over

if he *had* killed Assad, a huge chunk of the American media would have said that it was the day he finally became President

― wayne trotsky (Simon H.), 4. september 2018 19:10 (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

No they would not.

Doesn’t the assad assassination thing complicate the narrative that he is promoting Russia’s interests?

― 🦅 (Trϵϵship), 4. september 2018 19:16 (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Not really, no. Even if it turns out he had been literally recruited by the FSB ten years ago it's also true that he is an idiot with no impulse control.

Xpost I seriously doubt that is all they have. Who'd hate him for that at this point

I would wager that any move he's made counter to Russian interests has been inadvertent on his part (although perhaps presented as intentional after the fact) or done under duress.

― Digital Squirts (Old Lunch), Tuesday, September 4, 2018 10:23 AM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he's like Matt Damon in The Departed, just taking care of law and order business once in awhile to maintain his cover.

Commodification of dissent is a time-honored Nike strategy. #NikeBoycott https://t.co/tL6SPNq5Qc

— Dennis Perrin (@DennisThePerrin) September 4, 2018

Trump: Well, it’s too bad. Of course, you and I had a conversation a couple of years ago, and so that I think got you there a little bit. And we had a conversation many years ago, if you remember, in Trump Tower.

BW: Yeah, I do.

Trump: That has to be 20 years ago. And you were thinking about doing a book about me then, which is interesting. Who knew it would’ve been on this subject? Right? That was not in the cards at that time.

BW: That’s right. Well, I’m sorry, I . ..

Trump: I still remember that.

see i remember things!

In one of the debate ms he suggested we join forces with Russia in Syria to drive out ISIS, Al Qaeda and other Sunni groups—who he said were the real threat—and everyone lost their mind because he was saying out strategic interests aligned with Russia. He definitely didn’t forget that Assad was Russia’s man in the region between then and now.