US Politics, November 2018: "There is no blame. There is no anything."

keep it up, assholes

“Two or three weeks ago, the No. 1 thing people were quietly worried about was apathy or low turnout with Latino voters and you’re not hearing that anymore,” said Todd Schulte, president of FWD.us, a bipartisan immigration advocacy group.

He added: “This is a reminder of a thing they like least about this administration and you’re seeing that show up. Public opinion polls on the House have moved away from Republicans in the last two weeks and if you look at where that’s coming from, it’s the president’s hard-line rhetoric.”

No generic ballot poll has directly linked the president’s immigration talk to a pro-Democratic voter shift. But recent studies have shown that Americans see immigration as among the nation’s most divisive issue, in addition to it being a policy area Trump has mishandled, according to voters in some states with key midterm races.

An MPR News/Star Tribune poll taken last month in Minnesota, where both Senate seats are up for grabs and Republicans are competing for the governor’s mansion, found that 52 percent of likely voters disapprove of the president’s direction on immigration, versus 42 percent who approve.

What does that fucking mean, he's been an asshole on immigration from (before the) start. Who is on the fence here? (Immigration pun intended?)

"Sure, he's an asshole, and sometimes he's a big asshole, but now he's an even bigger asshole and is losing my support."

honestly I think that's an accurate summary

when Trump is in the news for his assholishness, support for him and by extension the GOP drops

No one outside of @tedcruz’s camp in #Texas thinks he’s well ahead. If @BetoORourke pulls of the upset, he’ll be the story of the night and arguably the year; proof of a generational paradigm shift in American politics; and suddenly a front runner for the Democratic #2020 ticket.

— Howard Fineman (@howardfineman) November 2, 2018

seppuku
sudoku
Sanpaku

nice little run of posts

tryna temper my beto expectations, tbh, feels reminiscent of tempering my bernie expectations in 2015 -- "i like him but what's the point." that first tempering did not go the way i thought it would.

Yeah, I'm very nervous about letting myself get too excited

I am hopeful but skeptical he can pull it off - betting on increased turnout among traditionally low turnout demographics is not often a winning strategy. If he has a very good latino GOTV operation and that turnout spikes like it has in central CA districts and other places then.... maybe

what's the latest polling out of Texas?

538 has cruz up by five in a weighted average

It would be kinda beautifully poetic if Cruz is defeated by increased Latino turnout.

Cruz has a lot of weight.

In last night's debate, Danny O'Connor challenged Troy Balderson on his opposition to Medicaid expansion and it was definitely something. #OH12 pic.twitter.com/PgBSdEwdd3

— 🗳4 DAYS TO VOTE 🗳 (@plunderbund) November 2, 2018

Emerson College did one from Oct 28-30, Cruz up 3.

i retain at least a small amount of hope, even though my expectation is that he'll (barely) lose. the amazing amount of early voting kind of throws a huge wild card into it, especially because the ramifications of that aren't clear

New nonpartisan Alaska Survey Research poll finds the *dean of the House* trailing by 1% in #AKAL, the state's lone House seat:

Alyse Galvin (Undeclared/D): 49%
Rep. Don Young (R) 48%

Two weeks ago, @CookPolitical moved the race from Likely R to Lean R.https://t.co/ZlBM5ccHKr

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2018

also she's proooooobably going to lose but this is good

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/paulette-jordan-idaho-democrat-governor-race_us_5bc90d21e4b0d38b58766654

even if he wins i still find it slightly depressing that it would take historic turnout and a perfect campaign to beat america's least-loved non-executive branch politician-cum-serial killer.

lmao

https://i.imgur.com/bxpsVZ8.png

thanks for that Paulette Jordan article caek, that's the most comprehensive piece on her that I've seen yet.

"Morning" Joe made a lot out of that Emerson poll this morning.

NYC residents (aside from Staten Isl and Queens I guess) rarely meet 'out' Republicans. The last 2 mornings the same pair of corporate lawyers (Democrats) were chatting right next to me on the subway and I wanted to commit fucking seppuku.

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, November 2, 2018 10:09 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I worked with an "out" republican lawyer. He was married to a super rich guy (scion of some wealthy latin american family) and, like most "moderate Republicans" I guess just loved tax breaks more than social progress.

The Cruz camp is rattled enough that they're officially running a PAC-style hit ad about O'Rourke's DWI.

Not raising my hopes either, but I suspect the Cruz camp has seen...startling internal polling, maybe not enough to put Beto ahead but a surprise.

remember the Northam/Gillespie race

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/02/democracy-loser-us-midterms-poor-ethnic-minorities

"In Georgia 53,000 voter applications, most from African Americans, are currently being held up by the secretary of state, Brian Kemp, some for such petty reasons as a missing hyphen. "

angry and concise Gary Younge piece about the low odds of democracy actually breaking out during this voter suppression/gerrymandering fest.

POTUS currently announcing economic warfare via an old meme

oh, brother

maybe this would be a good time for everyone involved with GoT to tell Trump to stfu

“Your name is Reek” pic.twitter.com/4V69fPfhMb

— Twlldun’s pre-emptive xmas name. (@twlldun) November 2, 2018

“I like her honesty and character and authenticity,” gushed Tri Robinson, a conservative Republican and evangelical pastor in Boise who hosted a fundraiser for Jordan. “She cares about what we care about. She cares about the poor. She cares about climate change.”

the cognitive dissonance...

midwestern conservatives do actually seem to give a shit about the environment and it's not hard to imagine a pastor being fond of helping the poor

it is hard to square either of those concerns with being a member of the Republican party

people have more than one dimension!

like i hear you on the cognitive dissonance i'm just saying it's not as weird to me as it might seem -- at my office we spend a lot of time and energy getting lefty perspectives into heartland newspapers and we've consistently found those audiences are into climate change material and inequality material

yeah but are they into changing their tribal affiliation, which 9 times out of 10 trumps any actual positions they support

ie "I'm a Christian and by the way FUCK YOU LIBTARDS"

In the words of the apostles iirc.

https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/WmlIUzUg0Z4sPN6XS.KcDg--~B/Zmk9c3RyaW07aD0xNjA7cHlvZmY9MDtxPTgwO3c9MzQwO3NtPTE7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media-mbst-pub-ue1.s3.amazonaws.com/creatr-uploaded-images/2018-11/7df502e0-de27-11e8-85de-2bc5daae7cc3

donny always looks like he's smoking a j, i really hate his terrible face and mannerisms. i can't believe he's president. i went to a great used bookstore near here last night and they have a whole section (three high bookshelves worth, Soto's dream!) of president biographies. seeing Trump in there wedged between Truman and the single Tyler book they had was pretty depressing.

is it... actually possible that Steve King could lose?

King has steadily lost support among donors and members of his own party since Saturday’s massacre at the Tree of Life synagogue in a Jewish neighborhood of Pittsburgh. The gunman allegedly shouted, “All Jews must die!” before opening fire, killing 11 adults and injuring six others, including three police officers.

Although the eight-term congressman has been an anti-immigrant firebrand for years, he has amped up his rhetoric over the past several months to include retweeting known white supremacists and endorsing a Canadian white nationalist politician.

King also showed himself to be fluent in white nationalist talking points during an August interview he gave to a far-right publication in Austria. There, King repeated his “somebody else’s babies” argument by speaking fearfully about declining fertility rates in the West and his belief that Muslim and Latino immigrants pose a threat to the United States and Europe.

His Democratic opponent in the upcoming midterm elections, J.D. Scholten, has seen a spike in campaign donations, with $350,000 pouring in from 7,500 donors in a 24-hour period this week.

The two candidates are neck and neck in the polls.

n (three high bookshelves worth, Soto's dream!)

all that's needed is a fresh Old Fashioned on the table

Michael Cohen tells VF about 4 instances in which he remembers Trump using racist language in private, including once when Trump apparently responded to a remark about the whiteness of his rallies by saying, 'black people are too stupid to vote for me.' https://t.co/ta51F9X3o9

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 2, 2018

xxxpost The absolute very least that I ask when he is no longer president is that I never have to see his face or hear his voice again as long as I live. I think I'd be willing to let all other legal/karmic consequences slide if he were to just disappear altogether from public life. Dream the impossible dream, I guess.

amen

Guys, if you've heard Trump use racial epithets in private, you'd better cash your chips now because I feel like he's maybe a single-digit number of days away from doing so in public at this point.

I hope they decide to digitally edit him out of all movies and TV shows from the past like they did with cigarettes

donny always looks like he's smoking a j, i really hate his terrible face and mannerisms. i can't believe he's president. i went to a great used bookstore near here last night and they have a whole section (three high bookshelves worth, Soto's dream!) of president biographies. seeing Trump in there wedged between Truman and the single Tyler book they had was pretty depressing.

its really kind of amazing that after 2 years on the job Trump still comes off like a D-list reality star who embarrasses himself nearly every time he speaks. his brain seems utterly unable to absorb any new information whatsoever. it's like we're on the receiving end of karmic justice because we called Dubya stupid for 8 years.

last i saw Bogart was still smoking. xp

was the "rocks/rifle" story posted?

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/01/trump-immigration-953569

Stay request denied, emoluments suit going forward

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/11/02/trump-request-to-stay-emoluments-suit-denied-potentially-allowing-plaintiffs-to-seek-details-on-his-d-c-hotels-foreign-customers/?utm_term=.3e6d6bbd6bb6

this motherfucker's gonna be in court for the rest of his (hopefully v short and miserable) life