US Politics, November 2018: "There is no blame. There is no anything."

https://i.imgur.com/WMPKrkj.png

(in case you're wondering, "We coded panels as tilting left when a majority of participants were Democratic or progressive; we coded panels as tilting right when a majority of participants were Republican or conservative; and we coded panels as balanced when Democratic and progressive guests numbered equally with Republican and conservative guests. Neutral guests did not affect a panel's tilt.")

things you can do with a lawnmower

https://i.imgur.com/mzcA8Fl.png

i found this article from the night before the 2016 election. it is awesome

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016s-election-data-hero-isnt-nate-silver-sam-wang/

Forget Nate Silver. There's a new king of the presidential election data mountain. His name is Sam Wang, Ph.D.

Haven't heard of him just yet? Don't worry. You will. Because Wang has sailed True North all along, while Silver has been cautiously trying to tack his FiveThirtyEight data sailboat (weighted down with ESPN gold bars) through treacherous, Category-Five-level-hurricane headwinds in what has easily been the craziest presidential campaign in the modern political era.

When the smoke clears on Tuesday—and it will clear—what will emerge is Wang and his Princeton Election Consortium website and calculations (which have been used, in part, to drive some of the election poll conclusions at The New York Times' Upshot blog and *The Huffington Post'*s election site). What will be vindicated is precisely the sort of math approach that Silver once rode to fame and fortune.

...So when the smoke clears on Tuesday; when enough non-white and female voters haven't been harassed or intimidated enough to stay home; when Clinton crosses the finish line with something close to 300 Electoral College votes and a popular vote victory somewhere between two and five percentage points; and Nate Silver is telling his 1.7 million Twitter followers that he'd been right all along this election, Sam Wang will be standing tall above the fray, draped in his "median-based probability election" cloak.

Long live the new election data king.

lolll wired

When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang
When the smoke clears on Tuesday what will emerge is Wang

This is the 2 minute ad by the way

Dem running agnst Steve King puts up 2 min!!! Field of Dreams-inspired ad. ('real" field of dreams in the 1st CD, btw, not the 4th)https://t.co/hlbkfyGZYD
— amy walter (@amyewalter) November 2, 2018
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, November 3, 2018 3:26 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Through the whole I was waiting for him to start carping about Courtney Love and Beck and Hanson

That lawnmower thing---on two phone games that I play the most and am usually high on the leader board my handles are "trumpisadick" and "trumpsucks."

I do wonder how the MTP panel composition would change under a Dem administration

I do wonder how the MTP panel composition would change under a Dem administration

They would eliminate the token Democrat and make it all Republicans.

That's how it was in 2009-2010.

Huh

oh sweet jesus I hate this motherfucker. praying that abrams wins and this doesn't go into a runoff.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/04/us/politics/georgia-elections-kemp-voters-hack.html

also:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/sonny-perdue-cotton-pickin-florida-governor-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis/index.html

really, my dude? really???

The Kemp news...i hope that fucker has a stroke

I thought he'd actually prevented the Georgia servers from being looked into previously which might have helped prevent further hacking. So, slight hypocrysy there.

Hmm hipocracy on the part if a Republican... I don't know, don't buy it tbh

.@SenBillNelson has been in public office for over 40 years. He’s been in the Senate for 18 years. He’s the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida. @desiderioDC talked to voters who think @AndrewGillum chose Nelson for the ticket.

AMAZING pic.twitter.com/EJud1dmXyk

— Chris Hartline (@ChrisHartline) November 5, 2018

Hypocritic oaf

if he can pull Nelson over the line...

I hate Rick Skeletor Scott

You have no idea!

Forty-eight hours from now, I will be pointedly avoiding the internet. Probably watching something on Netflix.

i will be right here

stoked for the madness

Nope. Can't avoid it. To quote Morrissey, angel, we go down together.

I guess we'll see. The memory of Election Night 2016 - which never officially ended for me, because I couldn't sleep - is still very raw.

ray netflix is right on the dang internet!!!!

j., you know what I meant.

ayo how does one watch election results on the west coast of the USA?

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic), Sunday, November 4, 2018 5:39 PM (yesterday)

yeah i for one am lining up some dense and wine-oriented movie watching i think, the november 2016 double-feature of "duck soup" and "saboteur" was totally inadequate at skipping forward through time, esp since as soon as the credits started rolling someone near the back of the theater checked their phone and yelled out "it's america that's being sabotaged, because trump is winning!" i dismissed them as superficial followers of early precinct information or w/e but a few hours later my little household, deep in some sad cups, was switching between bob ross and "airheads" just to try and blot out the minutes until the last, miserable make-or-break states came in. netflix must be sitting on fascinating data of what ppl reached out for that night. i'm going to need continuous distraction, minimal news, unless it's amazing news.

it's not going to be another upset like that

i've probably posted all that on one of these threads before, sorry

sure i just don't need to be sitting there watching ppl say "checking back in the texas senate race, it is still TOO CLOSE TO CALL although o'rourke is probably hoping that THESE precincts break in his favor" etc etc til 2 in the morning

"nate, since we're still waiting on those Fargo precincts to figure out if heitkamp has a chance, are there any state senate races where the exit polling so far has surprised you?"

I'm going to sit through every last second of the election returns and then hate myself after.

oh yeah. i will try not to watch that stuff either.

it's not going to be another upset like that

― Trϵϵship

538 gives republicans a 1 out of 7 chance of holding the house. just for fun, i'd suggest googling "random number generator", putting a min of 1 and a max of 7, and clicking "generate" until a 7 comes up

it took me 8 times

but

idk

(got a 7 on my second try)

this is my idea of wild sunday night fun btw

i posted this over on the mid-term thread and no one gave a shit about it, but i think it's worth thinking about

there are all sorts of assumptions built into the models, and minor adjustments to them can yield pretty different results.

i really like the whole NYT live polling thing especially if you drill down into an individual race (like dave brat v spanberger: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-va07-3.html)

i realize that might be paywalled off for some people, or you might have run out of free articles for the month. but just to give you an idea, for each individual race they provide these kinds of alternative projections and then update the results in real-time as they conduct the poll:

https://i.imgur.com/imS0QOL.png
https://i.imgur.com/P2Jfngx.png

I’m going to go to a national park after I vote

can I recommend that ppl torrent some classic robert altman movies to occupy their time? altman is good iirc

We're going to a Ethiopian restaurant in the East Village for my birthday and then catching up on South Park. Already voted by mail.

I voted absentee aaaaaaages ago, and although I can only vote on federal races because: expat I’m still getting hundreds of badly personalised begging emails from DFL state races. Must have deleted 20 yesterday alone.

I have most of the Altmans, will loan them to the cause if it keeps y'all out of trouble.

I'm absolutely not watching any of the returns. Voting immediately after work on Tuesday, coming home and distracting myself with non-internet/tv/radio stuff until blessed sleep falls over me. I'm pretty much just bracing myself for the worst because I will never again put myself through the turmoil of two years ago (partly because it might literally kill me).

I honestly don't see much of a future if this week isn't a repudiation of Trump. Anything else will be perceivable and perceived as a tacit approval of him and everything he stands for, and proof that people who outwardly profess not to be racist are tolerant of racism if it doesn't upset their own personal apple cart.

I mean, there will still be a future in that scenario, just probably not for America as a livable country.

For many segments American hasn't been livable since the mid 2000s.

Or 1800s.