2020 Democratic presidential primary

get used to it now, fellow libs

Biden may run, Harris assuredly will. It's far less common for a nominee to pick an opponent as VP than it seems like it might be.

biden makes me so IA. 2020 is going to be a nightmare. new lows like 10,000 feet into the mariana trench (we're at 9,000 right now and have 27,000 until we hit bottom).

That seems like a losing ticket - mostly bc of Biden's age - but who knows

The nominee will probably be a sitting senator who will then select a senator or governor who did not run. It's not rocket science.

Unless it's Beto.

Asked if he’s a progressive, @BetoORourke says, ‘I don’t know.’ He’s not big on labels, he says pic.twitter.com/gDczpTZ2Bb

— David Siders (@davidsiders) December 14, 2018

He's Texan. He can't cop to being a progressive even if he is.

Policy wise, he's left of Obama but right of Ocasio-Cortez. That's progressive enough for a hell of a lot of Dem voters.

Politico runs a story about beto every fucking day

that picture is p funny tho

I don't really buy the "Texans can't identify as progressive" thing tbh, he knows he's playing on a national stage now. [citation needed] on his hidden progressive credentials

I buy it, because I live in Texas and just suffered through 6 months of "Liberal"/"Progressive" attack ads comparing us to something millimeters away from Hitler.

Actually, I tell a lie--it was 10 months.

known progressive hitler

People willfully misinterpret the "socialist" part of the National Socialists, not just in Texas. Pretty much in all 50 states.

I think you mean *Democratic* Socialists?

I don't buy it because a moderate Democrat isn't going to get any more votes in rural Texas than an open Leninist.

how much of the Texas vote is rural Texas?

(don't really know)

don't worry guys, Biden is a proven nonvotegetter

I think you mean *Democratic* Socialists?

No, I meant Nazis. That's where the "Hitler was on the left" fallacy comes from.

ok, wasn't sure I understood

I'm interested in Johnny's relative precision placing Beto between Obama & AOC, curious to hear what's behind that.

I don't have charts and graphs ready to go, tbh. I've just picked stuff up along the way, as much as I've been able to not actually living in Texas or following his every move. I know he's not all the way in the Abolish ICE or Medicare For All bag, but he's also pro pot legalization and against standardized testing. I imagine, if he indeed runs, he'll get pushed as far as we can go on foreign policy and we'll see where he lands. I know he's vigorously pro choice, though I don't expect anyone who wasn't would make it very far in a Dem primary. I dunno guys, he just scans as a very slightly left of center-left Dem and Obama was basically toeing the actual center in 2008 where Ocasio-Cortez needs a telescope to see it. He's a mushy, middly guy who I think would have a sympathetic ear to activists over time.

I mean, definitely prove me wrong if I'm wrong. I would prefer not to be duped.

I guess I just don't see or know of any reasonable evidence for that supposed sympathetic ear

The probability of a sympathetic ear is increased by getting progressives into congress. I am 100% in favor of AOC's idea of primarying centrist Dems in safe blue districts so the blue gets bluer.

I don’t get what people like about Beto so much compared to the other candidates. Bernie and Warren are the ones who have a real track record of progressivism. Both can articulate issues like health care and economic inequality in clear terms and they’re not inclined to cooperate with Wall Street. Considering a candidate that isn’t one of them seems like a losing prospect if you really want a different kind of democrat.

Bernie and Warren are also a THOUSAND YEARS OLD. Do you get that?

Warren isn’t

Anyway, I’m speaking from the perspective of the change I want to see in America. I don’t care about a hot candidate who can connect with the juul generation.

beto plays well on viral videos and knew how to copy obama's 2008 playbook. he is a standard-issue democrat which in 2018 makes him more liberal than a standard-issue democrat ten years ago. he should be trying to win the senate in 2020 against cornyn.

I don’t care about a hot candidate who can connect with the juul generation.

lol

Anyway, I think Trump's electoral map is weaker than most of the press does, and his team does, but still I'd rather not risk it with a professorial type or crank, neither of whom would bring out the numbers of voters needed on election day to ensure a Trump beatdown. We may have to sacrifice a bit of progressive pleasure by choosing someone who can light a fire under voters' asses when it counts—the general election, not the primaries. Take the white house back. Make congress bluer. Do the right (left) thing on Scotus appointments. That's how you transform this place. Not with the candidate who gives you a chub when you're caucusing.

(To be clear, I'm not saying nominate a person like Michael Bloomberg either, whose entire constituency is wealthy donors.)

I don’t know if there is evidence for that. The Democrats have been trusting the wisdom of moderation for decades and over the long haul they’ve lost a ton of ground.

Just look at what the Republicans did, man. Sure, Obama won two terms, but while he was being president, they ransacked state legislatures all around the country, gerrymandered the shit out of districts, amassed both houses of congress, shaped the federal bench by denying judicial appointments—all while having a president of the opposing party.

You're vesting too much in THE PRESIDENCY. A standard-issue dem, as m bison said, is just the boss. The left has to keep doing the work.

I’m not vesting anything. I’m not a democratic strategist. Why would I want a more moderate candidate if my policy goals align with bernie’s?

Me: Here's everything the Republicans did to remake the country and hold on to power at all levels, and we should study that and emulate it for the benefit of everybody.

Treeship: BUT I LIKE BERNIE!

*bows*

Also we shouldn’t emulate the republicans because they completely fucked up our system through their power grabs. We should pass anti-gerrymandering legislation.

Beto looks like Ed O'Brien from Radiohead

while I am sympathetic to the idea that the president as a position is overemphasized, there's a symbolic level to the role that bears keeping in mind, esp as it impacts turnout and morale. just look at how much it feels like our brains are all experiencing early death from having to think about trump every goddamn day even though his actual power is quite limited in important ways

even though his actual power is quite limited in important ways

Why is everybody dancing around this? That's where all the focus should be. Push the institutions in a more progressive direction and a progressive presidency will follow. We didn't get from George H.W. Bush to Donald Trump overnight. A lot of out of the spotlight ground game went into it.

btw, I'm not advocating for gerrymandering districts the opposite way, as may have been implied. That's undemocratic bullshit. I'm talking about a reset.

if Sanders does run he should plaster this graph everywhere

When Trump supporters tell you who their enemy is, believe them. (CNN 12/18) pic.twitter.com/Nw9dDGZ6XI

— Carl Beijer (@CarlBeijer) December 15, 2018

where's Clinton in that graph, I wonder?

i doubt democrats can hope to get many votes from actual trump supporters in 2020 but candidates who are trying to win office generally don't boast about their unfavorability ratings

i will be the one to point out that the graph pretty much lines up with name recognition (other than biden, i guess)

I think Carl was one of the people who argued that Bernie could pick off Trump supporters.

"ppl who voted Trump" vs "ppl who currently identify as Trump supporters" is a distinction worthy of interrogation

We may have to sacrifice a bit of progressive pleasure by choosing someone who can light a fire under voters' asses when it counts—the general election, not the primaries. Take the white house back.

I find it odd that you think these things are mutually exclusive. Obama '08 was the most 'progressive' campaign of most of our voting lives... and a blowout that drove turnout.