times of israel:
Channel 13’s exit poll has Blue and White and Likud tied with 36 seats each.
The right-wing bloc leads, with 66 seats, making Netanyahu better positioned to form a government, compared to 54 seats for the center-left.
― findom haddie (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, 9 April 2019 19:17 (five years ago) link
wait + see - exit polls are not reliable, lots of conflicting ones atm
― Mordy, Tuesday, 9 April 2019 19:21 (five years ago) link
Netanyahu's still going to be Prime Minister though, right?
― Do you like 70s hard rock with a guitar hero? (Tom D.), Tuesday, 9 April 2019 20:06 (five years ago) link
probably -- even if gantz gets more seats bibi has an easier road towards making a coalition but we'll see
― Mordy, Tuesday, 9 April 2019 20:07 (five years ago) link
lots of ppl now saying likud is gonna win most seats bibi pm again
― Mordy, Tuesday, 9 April 2019 23:31 (five years ago) link
if true, this does not say good things about Israeli politics.
― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, 10 April 2019 02:53 (five years ago) link
Bit much to expect Israel to buck the worldwide trend for far right racist nationalism.
― Do you like 70s hard rock with a guitar hero? (Tom D.), Wednesday, 10 April 2019 06:56 (five years ago) link
especially because they were so far ahead of the curve in that respect
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Wednesday, 10 April 2019 06:57 (five years ago) link
Oh dear, the Israeli labor party are looking completely knackered.
― calzino, Wednesday, 10 April 2019 07:03 (five years ago) link
xp otm, was thinking of the Ben Judah article “Bibi was Right” when I read your comment.
― gyac, Wednesday, 10 April 2019 07:07 (five years ago) link
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/04/09/symbolism-behind-viral-photo-protesting-woman-sudan/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6967ea275d28&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1
Sudan protests against Bashir
― curmudgeon, Wednesday, 10 April 2019 15:11 (five years ago) link
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-pr-firm-behind-likud-s-hidden-cameras-in-arab-poll-sites-boasts-of-lowering-turnout-1.7108972
― ogmor, Wednesday, 10 April 2019 21:17 (five years ago) link
Bashir steps down in Sudan after years in power. “Transitional” military council running the country for next 2 years. There have been 4 months of protest. Bashir could face charges in the Hague for actions taken in Darfur if he leaves the country .
― curmudgeon, Thursday, 11 April 2019 14:41 (five years ago) link
Although this is not the first time Mr. Trump has praised an Arab strongman, his expression of support for Mr. Hifter appears to be the first time that Mr. Trump has embraced an aspiring authoritarian who is not yet in power and may never get there.
A former general under Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and also a former C.I.A. client, Mr. Hifter had been living in exile in the United States but returned to Libya during the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. He first declared his intention to seize power in 2014, when Libya’s nascent transitional government was struggling to establish its authority over freewheeling militias around the country —from NY Times
― curmudgeon, Saturday, 20 April 2019 04:18 (five years ago) link
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/world/middleeast/trump-libya-khalifa-haftar.html
― curmudgeon, Saturday, 20 April 2019 04:19 (five years ago) link
Something about this HIfter fellow Trump really lkes, also
MuffoliniPol PofIdi AmifJosel Stafin
― d'ILM for Murder (Hadrian VIII), Saturday, 20 April 2019 04:34 (five years ago) link
haha yes, I was going to say it was probably just a typo by Trump
― Screamin' Jay Gould (The Yellow Kid), Saturday, 20 April 2019 23:20 (five years ago) link
would like "Moffe growing vpon the skull of a man" but 77
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Wednesday, 24 April 2019 16:36 (five years ago) link
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/04/saudi-arabia-37-put-to-death-in-shocking-execution-spree/
among those executed is Abdulkareem al-Hawaj – a young Shi’a man who was arrested at the age of 16 and convicted of offences related to his involvement in anti-government protests. Under international law, the use of the death penalty against people who were under the age of 18 at the time of the crime is strictly prohibited.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2019/04/23/saudi-arabia-beheadings-executions-mujtaba-al-sweikat/3552679002/
A Saudi Arabian man who was arrested as a teenager as he was getting ready to fly to America to begin his studies at Western Michigan University was beheaded by the government Tuesday, according to a report from an official press agency.
Mujtaba al-Sweikat was 17 when he was detained at King Fahd International Airport in 2012. Earlier that year, Al-Sweikat allegedly attended a pro-democracy rally in the midst of the Arab Spring, which led to his arrest. He was intending to visit Western Michigan, where he had been accepted as a student, the university confirmed to the Free Press in 2017.
― curmudgeon, Thursday, 25 April 2019 04:34 (five years ago) link
jesus christ
― Lil' Brexit (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 25 April 2019 11:26 (five years ago) link
Kingdom of nightmares.
― pomenitul, Thursday, 25 April 2019 11:42 (five years ago) link
Are we really not gonna talk about the massive political clusterfuck unfolding in Israel right now? Not at all clear Netanyahu can form a government and he's (quite possibly successfully) inducing the Knesset to dissolve itself 6 weeks after it was elected in order to keep anyone but Bibi from having a chance to form a coalition. Meanwhile, Likud is merging with Kulanu against its own constitutional rules. And this may all end with Netanyahu caving to his chief adversaries in the farther-right-than-Netanyahu wing.
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 28 May 2019 17:22 (five years ago) link
Or is Bibi just using the threat of dissolution to get Liberman to cave to the ultra-Orthodox and in the end there'll be a last-minute coalition deal? Who in this mess wants a new election?
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 29 May 2019 13:48 (five years ago) link
Meanwhile, Sara Netanyahu pled guilty to corruption charges today and will reimburse the government $15,000. With three hours to go Netanhayu is still stuck one short of a majority. Reports are that he reached out to his bitter enemies in Labor and was rejected. I don't really understand what the deal is with the dissolution of the Knesset, when the deadline for that is. Netanyahu could still easily walk out of this with something he can call a win, as he so often does.
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 29 May 2019 18:34 (five years ago) link
if the knesset is dissolved there's another election
― findom haddie (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 29 May 2019 18:37 (five years ago) link
3 options are: bibi is able to form government, bibi is able to pass bill to dissolve knesset and new election happens, bibi doesn't form government and knesset isn't dissolved, president rivlin will ask another member of the knesset to try and form a government
― findom haddie (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 29 May 2019 18:42 (five years ago) link
I guess what I'm wondering is does Rivlin immediately ask another MK to form a government two hours from now, or does the Knesset still have time to dissolve even if Netanyahu misses his deadline?
Latest report is that Knesset will vote on dissolution in about an hour and a half so I guess the answer is, Knesset has to break up now if it's going to keep a non-Bibi from getting a shot.
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 29 May 2019 19:15 (five years ago) link
short thread
What’s about to go down in the Knesset is the wildest political moment I can recall. I’m 95% confident that the Knesset will vote to dissolve, but there’s still a small chance of an international Likud coup to oust Netanyahu 1/— (((Michael Koplow))) (@mkoplow) May 29, 2019
― Mordy, Wednesday, 29 May 2019 21:01 (five years ago) link
nm that small chance apparently they did vote to dissolve but could've been hilarious
― Mordy, Wednesday, 29 May 2019 21:03 (five years ago) link
september election seems a bit of a long run up time
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Thursday, 30 May 2019 05:53 (five years ago) link
I’m still surprised how little attention this seems to be getting. This is quite likely the end of Bibi and could very well be the end of Likud’s dominance, couldn’t it?
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 30 May 2019 11:14 (five years ago) link
I don't know, I'll believe in the end of Bibi when I see it. It's like Berlusconi, he's never gone. Just one thing after the other, trying to shield himself from the law, dragging everyone further and further into the mud. Frankly, it's boring.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 30 May 2019 12:03 (five years ago) link
Fred OTM.
― Ned Caligari (Tom D.), Thursday, 30 May 2019 12:24 (five years ago) link
I don’t think it’s getting more attention partially because the reason behind the gov collapse (military exemptions for charedim) doesn’t fit neatly into the West’s interests in the conflict (even if ultimately ousting Bibi would have an impact in that area as well one could imagine).
― Mordy, Thursday, 30 May 2019 13:48 (five years ago) link
I don't think it's at all clear this is the end of Bibi or the end of Likud dominance. I don't see what other political bloc has the ability to govern. With a new election, some parties may clear the threshold who didn't before, some may fall below who made it before, and the calculus of seats will likely be slightly different; and Netanyahu only fell one vote short of a governing coalition, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice. On the other hand, what "makes sense" means is "makes sense for someone whose only goal is to remain in power, no matter how much chaos and expense it causes the country," or, more charitably, "makes sense for someone whose ego is so overwhelming that he thinks the country is helpless without his strong hand, which thus has to remain on the steering wheel by any means necessary."
Lots of things could happen. The next election could return a Knesset where Netanyahu could put together a weak government dependent on favors to small parties to his right. Or there could be a Likud revolt followed by a unity government with a non-Netanyahu Likud PM and Gantz joining. (Gantz has already said Blue and White is open to participating in a coalition with post-Netanyahu Likud.) Or I guess if Blue and White improves their standing thanks to nationwide Netanyahu fatigue (which I do think is real to some extent) I guess there could be a Gantz-led government (which I emphasize would not really be on the left though it would include the left-wing parties.)
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Thursday, 30 May 2019 14:24 (five years ago) link
the reason behind the gov collapse (military exemptions for charedim)
One thing I don't get is whether this is the real reason -- I mean, it's the proximate reason, but there's also some chatter that people really are tired of Netanyahu's constant attempts to make the state his fiefdom and that even on the right he is no longer seen as indispensable; what do you think?
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Thursday, 30 May 2019 14:26 (five years ago) link
I think it's a combination of two things. One - in order to secure the majority Bibi had to cannibalize other smaller right-wing groups which made his coalition extremely tenuous and gave outsized power to individual members like Lieberman. Two - Lieberman used that outsized power to demand the end to charedi military exemptions and refused to budge. If Bibi had more working room or Lieberman hadn't put his foot down then Bibi would have another government in place right now. I do think it's possible Likud could've made a coalition with someone other than Bibi in charge but I think these other two issues are much more critical.
I think Bennett + Shaked will almost certainly make it into the government this time around.
― Mordy, Thursday, 30 May 2019 14:35 (five years ago) link
Isn't that what Theresa May tried to do, form a coalition government with far right Irish religious extremists or something? Worked out well for her.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 30 May 2019 14:50 (five years ago) link
No, she just bribed a bunch of trolls, chancers and right wing evangelicals in Northern Ireland with a cool billion quid to vote with her government - true to fashion, they took the money and voted against her anyway.
― Ned Caligari (Tom D.), Thursday, 30 May 2019 14:53 (five years ago) link
Not that I should need to school Americans on these people as their forebears and their descendants are responsible for so much of the shittiest aspects of US history.
― Ned Caligari (Tom D.), Thursday, 30 May 2019 14:58 (five years ago) link
Poor Sudan. They get rid of their dictator but now the military is killing the peaceful protesters
https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/06/04/sudan-halt-attacks-protesters
― curmudgeon, Tuesday, 4 June 2019 18:41 (five years ago) link
Once the military had recovered from the confusion around Mr Bashir's overthrow it regrouped and the most hard line elements took control.
This explains the pre-eminence of the RSF commander, Mohammed "Hemedti" Hamadan whose personal ruthlessness in Darfur always made him the most likely leader of a counter-revolution.
Unlike many of the military elite "Hemedti" is an outsider.
From a rural background he has no family ties or sentimental affiliation with the young middle class protesting on the streets of the Khartoum.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48517768
― curmudgeon, Tuesday, 4 June 2019 19:04 (five years ago) link
I'm torn on the tank ship attacks. On the one hand, I think Iran is smart enough to do it, and it is pretty smart. On the other, while it would be stupid for Saudi Arabia to do it, they clearly are that stupid.
― Frederik B, Friday, 14 June 2019 14:18 (five years ago) link
https://www.thedailybeast.com/japanese-oil-tanker-owner-says-us-is-wrong-about-gulf-attack
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 14 June 2019 14:42 (five years ago) link
it's pretty crazy who the us had such a definitive answer in like 24 hrs .
― (•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 14 June 2019 14:45 (five years ago) link
how*
morsi's death after years in solitary confinement not receiving anywhere near adequate medical care will not be looked on kindly by historians
― ogmor, Tuesday, 18 June 2019 15:25 (five years ago) link
a lot of ppl in the sudanese diaspora arranging protests, raising attention and trying to put international pressure on the transitional military council at what cld be a critical time. with the state controlling all of the media and lots of ppl in rural sudan relying heavily on the radio and an underfunded & vulnerable opposition movement, there seems to be a lot of pessimism and uncertainty over the plans for elections and concerns they'll end up with someone like sisi backed by the arab league and china, who are talking a lot about stability, and russia, who are also raising very legitimate concerns abt extremists
― ogmor, Wednesday, 19 June 2019 11:26 (four years ago) link
Forget your Danish film critic's armchair speculations this is really good on the tanker episode:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/19/donald-trump-reckless-iran-policy-casts-doubt-us-global-leader
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, 19 June 2019 11:38 (four years ago) link
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/jamal-khashoggi-killing-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-evidence-un-report
― Orpheus Knutt (Tom D.), Wednesday, 19 June 2019 12:24 (four years ago) link
I was in New Delhi earlier this year at the same time MBS was there, and received a very light-touch in-person warning from Saudi intelligence within an hour for saying something rude about them on my anonymous Twitter account https://t.co/hvJJsWqWY2— 🦃🦃 gracious goat 🦃🦃 (@marxatfarpoint) November 6, 2019
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Sunday, 10 November 2019 16:45 (four years ago) link
State intelligence and security forces are the premium upgrade from mere high-powered multi-national PR firms.
― A is for (Aimless), Sunday, 10 November 2019 18:54 (four years ago) link
Talking of state intelligence and security forces:
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/11/europe/syria-white-helmets-backer-james-le-mesurier-intl/index.html
― Srinivasaraghavan VONCataraghavan (ShariVari), Monday, 11 November 2019 14:03 (four years ago) link
huge leak from iran in the intercept and NYT today - some of the links here. mostly about how they took power in iraq. i haven't read much of it yet but looks like a significant publication:
Good morning, here's our series of stories based on 700 pages of top secret documents from the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence. This has never happened before: https://t.co/AiDfviY14I— Murtaza Mohammad Hussain (@MazMHussain) November 18, 2019
― Mordy, Monday, 18 November 2019 14:30 (four years ago) link
The importance of these Iranian cables seems more to provide confirmation and details to what could be reasonable inferred from the power dynamics in the region and the visible 'hot' conflicts. Iran and Saudi Arabia are both pushing hard to accumulate and consolidate regional influence, through every means available to them and the situation is very fluid and constantly shifting.
― A is for (Aimless), Monday, 18 November 2019 16:43 (four years ago) link
yes it's a world of difference between vague inferences + real information as "through every means available to them and the situation is very fluid and constantly shifting" is practically meaningless in content whereas these 700 pages help fill in the gaps of what those means include and how they actually look
― Mordy, Monday, 18 November 2019 16:45 (four years ago) link
Iran is a land of contrasts
― -_- (jim in vancouver), Monday, 18 November 2019 16:48 (four years ago) link
Just stunning work by the Bush administration. Spend a couple trillion dollars and kill a couple hundred thousand civilians so that Iraq can become a client state of Iran.
― officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 18 November 2019 19:24 (four years ago) link
Experts on the Ian Masters news program were talking about this as early as 2002. Iraq is a majority Shi'a country, many of whose leaders had spent years in Iranian exile; and Iran a neighboring hedgemon that has taken the indirect/subterfuge approach to regional politics for centuries. Installing Ahmad Chalabi and other Western affiliated INC exiles to govern was always a fantasy that only neocons were indoctrinated enough to believe.
― Self Disabuse (Sanpaku), Monday, 18 November 2019 20:46 (four years ago) link
no gov't for Benny. Time for yet another election!
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:00 (four years ago) link
Not necessarily - indictment coming down tomorrow supposedly which could mean Likud minus Bibi aka potential gov as minor partner
― Mordy, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:11 (four years ago) link
indictment meaning Bibi would step aside? or would he have to be removed/challenged from within the party?
― Οὖτις, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:14 (four years ago) link
Either potentially I imagine depends on whether Bibi and Likud think he can beat it?
― Mordy, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 18:16 (four years ago) link
Bibi is getting all Trumpy like in his criticisms re attorney general he appointed. Bibi's status could get get ruled upon by Israel Supreme Court
― curmudgeon, Friday, 22 November 2019 14:14 (four years ago) link
so sick of this left wing anti semitism from uh Israeli Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit
― jesus is zing (symsymsym), Friday, 22 November 2019 16:32 (four years ago) link
"Channel 13 News reported that Hollywood producer Milchan, the central figure in Case 1000, told police that he attended a dinner at the Prime Minister's Residence in which Netanyahu's wife lashed at the Adelsons, telling them, 'You are spilling my blood, you are all spilling my blood.” Sheldon Adelson reportedly responded: "Calm down, we're doing the best we can. I lose 40 to 50 million dollars a year [on Israel Hayom]. … We regularly write in your favor and you keep shouting at me."
Another report from Channel 12 involving testimony from Case 2000 quoted Miriam Adelson as saying that Sara Netanyahu “once told me that if Iran gets nuclear weapons and Israel is wiped out, I’ll be to blame, because I’m not defending Bibi.”
Both the prime minister and his wife complained about their coverage with the Adelson newspaper’s former editor in chief, Amos Regev, both in person and in “screaming phone calls.”
Eventually, Miriam Adelson said, she and her husband got fed up and stopped visiting the Netanyahus."
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-netanyahu-israel-indictment-cases-charges-1.8160019
― jesus is zing (symsymsym), Friday, 22 November 2019 16:33 (four years ago) link
Still think they should name the US Embassy after Adelson, who effectively paid for it with his own money
― officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 22 November 2019 20:01 (four years ago) link
warming up to bibi and sara reading that anecdote
― -_- (jim in vancouver), Friday, 22 November 2019 20:04 (four years ago) link
does any other asshole world leader have such an affectionate nickname that both his supporters and haters use?
refuse to call this piece of shit "Bibi"
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Friday, 22 November 2019 20:24 (four years ago) link
my dad (a chilean exile from the pinochet dictatorship) and i sometimes jokingly refer to pinochet as "el tata" (grampa) so i don't mind calling netanyahu bibi
― -_- (jim in vancouver), Friday, 22 November 2019 20:27 (four years ago) link
Dubya?
― jesus is zing (symsymsym), Saturday, 23 November 2019 03:48 (four years ago) link
This thread is not getting used that much. Do we start a 2020 one, anyway?
We can discuss>
Netanyahu wants temporary immunity
Predicting how Iran will respond to the US action.
Complexity of knowing that Soleimani was responsible also for crushing Iranian and Syrian opponents of dictators in addition to Americans who never should have been in Iraq, but determining that if an outside force takes action against him without authority, that end result may still not help poor folks who were suffering in those countries, or help Western powers either
― curmudgeon, Friday, 3 January 2020 19:20 (four years ago) link
i think a new thread makes sense. it got over 200 posts and i definitely used it last year for things i'd otherwise be bumping this thread to post
― Mordy, Friday, 3 January 2020 19:47 (four years ago) link
Any new title ideas for thread? I see an older Iranian thread is getting use now
― curmudgeon, Saturday, 4 January 2020 21:03 (four years ago) link
We're talking about sand and death
― The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool (Sanpaku), Saturday, 4 January 2020 21:24 (four years ago) link
"We're talking about sand and death-- Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots 2020 " works for me
― curmudgeon, Sunday, 5 January 2020 06:10 (four years ago) link
"We're talking about sand and death"-- Middle East, North Africa (MENA) and other nearby Political Hotspots 2020
New thread started
― curmudgeon, Sunday, 5 January 2020 22:08 (four years ago) link