Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election

this is the thinking here in missouri too. in st. louis we can't keep signs in HQ because demand is so high.

The good news is that this guy doesn't have a shot in hell of winning.

I have to say that I've had this feeling more or less since they found Saddam. I'm not sure how this whole Mary Cheney thing will end up playing out. Something tells me the feigned outrage from the right will end up playing really really badly to the middleroad "undecided," though that "something" could just be my disgust for their disgust. Plus two-and-a-half weeks equals roughly 43,295 more pre-election "events" getting media attention.

I should note that "under-the-radar campaigns" mean different things depending on the party - for Democrats, it's voter registration; for Republicans, it's voter suppression.

The real tossups are OH, FL, WI, IA, PA, NV, NH and NM

The states Bush can get only if he moves the national needle are MN, MI, ME and maybe NJ

The states Kerry can get only if he moves the national needle are CO, WV and AZ

This is basically how I see things, except I think that, in the absence of a national needle move, the last four tossups above are already or will very soon be in the second category, locked down as Bush or Kerry states .

i hope to god the bastard loses.

newsweek has him up 6.

...among likely voters, a result they immediately disavowed, given that it showed Bush leading with women and Kerry leading with men. Bush is up by 1 among registered voters in their poll.

kerry is getting desperate,

;-)

reporters kept asking so they could make television ad

LOL

coors will also win

http://www.inventionfactory.com/history/RHAbridg/bb.jpg

and to think i'd missed keith's giardiasic political analysis. it's been so accurate in the past.

Andy McCarthy on why the Mary Cheney thing is the GOP 'overplaying the hand'

Jonathan Adler on how Bush's claim to never having made mistakes is being used against him ad-wise

And my personal favorite, an endorsement that Mark Krikorian baldly says is 'not one the White House is likely to trumpet.' It begins "Why I'm voting for this clown" and proceeds to argue bluntly why the author is content to vote GOP while not hiding his contempt for Bush at all, calling him "a spoiled rich kid who wasted his youth partying with his frat-boy buddies and then woke up one morning and decided to become president. I pointed out that his domestic policy has been disastrous and his foreign policy idiotic."

A lovely paragraph:

The question that matters is not who occupies the one job at the top of the executive branch. It's who occupies the thousands of other jobs. If re- elected, Bush is much more likely to name judges who respect the Constitution and believe in limited government -- though he himself certainly doesn't. He is likely to spend less on social programs than Kerry -- though not much less.

You can fight your corner, Keith, without kowtowing to the feeb who is making a lot of your assumptions look ridiculous. You have a shit candidate you're only backing for the reasons this guy says, except at least this guy says it.

double-you tee eff question mark

and was the singer-guitarist for the band Sonic Youthton

At this point the only voters going for Bush who I will respect are those like the fellow who wrote the 'clown' piece that essentially say "he's useless and obviously so but Kerry I think would do worse." Anyone heaping praise on Bush is quite frankly blowing smoke up their own ass.

Rasmussen's nationwide tracker has been calling it a tie or a 1-2pt Bush lead for about a week now; the numbers in the battlegrounds are better for Kerry than they have been for weeks and they're even giving him a slight lead in WI after reporting it Bushwards for ages. FL has drifted back to 'toss-up' status. They've still got that alarming K49-44B poll up for NY from mid-Sept - I presume this has widened in line with the rest of the east coast.

Hilariously confusing stats of the day: Washington Post gives Bush a 54% approval rating (+ incumbent factor = home and dry) while NYT/CBS pegs that figure at 44% (he's dead in the water). Oh, and the Washington Post gives Kerry a 4pt lead in the marginals.

The polls I like least - Gallup and the newsmagazines.

Electoral Vote Winner:
Popular Vote Winner:
House Control:
Senate Control:
Who wins Florida?
Suprise Republican victory:
Suprise Democratic victory:
Scandal State:
Media Blunder State:
Biggest Nader Factor State:
Libertarian Factor State:
Likelihood of capturing Osama?:
Likelihood of US Attacked Factor?:

Ditto, ratings.

Media Blunder State: meaning initially called wrong on Election night? Wisconsin