Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

otm

Is there a compelling explanation beyond simple racism for the NDP's collapse in support in QC?

― Simon H., Tuesday, October 22, 2019 6:10 AM (three hours ago)

The NDP have never been popular in Quebec, except for 2011. I don't discount Quebec racism at all, but I think any other NDP leader would have been wiped out there too.

i think the other problem is when you're a party with 15% propping up a larger party you'll also get the blame when things go wrong - which they definitely will this parliament, we're due a downturn for instance

― Seany's too Dyche to mention (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, October 22, 2019 12:08 PM (twenty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

The liberal brand has much more to win blaming conservative provinces and opposition so I doubt it will happen.

I think Simon is otm that the most likely outcome is that the Liberals eat the progressives into their tent, which I don't see as a problem, as long as progressive policies happen I'm okay. But it's already kind of the lesson of the last two elections: Trudeau and the Liberals can only go as far as the progressives voters will allow him to.

Yeah 2011 happened because usual Liberals voters were mad because of Sponsorgate and Layton was seen as one of us. Quebec never truly cared for NDP and never will. Federalist quebecers have all they ever wanted with the Liberals which is tailor-made for them. Nationalist quebecers surely don't care for a federalist party. We don't have a NDP at the provincial level. Boulerice wins because Boulerice is awesome and everyone loves him in the riding (including me).

the cynic in me thinks that if the NDP does manage to wring concessions, the Libs will just fold the associated progress into their brand and secure a majority next time out

It has happened almost every time the NDP has pulled the strings of a Liberal minority: after Tommy Douglas got Pearson to implement universal health coverage across the country, (Pierre)Trudeaumania was his reward. After PET created Petro-Canada as a Crown Corporation with NDP support, he won a majority in 1975. After the Liberal-NDP Accord in the 80s in Ontario, the Libs won a majority, as they did in 2013. We still got those policies, though!

Trudeau should leave bill 21 alone.

It was specifically built to create a wedge with federalism and create a sense of victimization among quebecois. If you widen that wedge, you will embolden nationalist sentiment to degrees not seen since 1995, and also create even more racism and resentment towards minorities. Nationalists are merely using muslims to make a crybaby point about their situation within Canada; every time anglos criticize the bill, the crybaby grows.

B-b-but the Trudeaus aren't anglos (although they're definitely Montreal elites)!

The bill was also built to put the courts in the middle of the debate. The fashionable right wing populist notion is that courts stand against the will of the people, if Trudeau enters the fray, he will further diminish the validity of those courts in the eye of the Quebec people and continue to embolden that disgusting discourse.

I found Hébert convincing on this - that it is normal and standard practice for governments, including Quebec's, to get involved in constitutional court cases: https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/10/09/the-fate-of-quebecs-bill-21-will-be-decided-by-the-courts-not-by-the-federal-election.html

That said, you might be right about what is politically safest here.

My hope is that Singh is able to wring those concessions while also sharpening the NDP's brand as a genuine left alternative to avoid having their achievements totally co-opted. As much as he has grown on me, I'm not convinced yet he's up to this task.

OTM on all counts

I found Hébert convincing on this - that it is normal and standard practice for governments, including Quebec's, to get involved in constitutional court cases: https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/10/09/the-fate-of-quebecs-bill-21-will-be-decided-by-the-courts-not-by-the-federal-election.html

That said, you might be right about what is politically safest here.

― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Tuesday, October 22, 2019 1:01 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Hebert is the best and I think she is otm. I haven't thought of the double standard CAQ/PQ/Bloc find themselves in.

I think the NDP is already seen as the genuine left alternative and also got clobbered. As long as the Liberals run as NDP Red, slightly to the center of them, I don't see a future for the NDP other than one of cooperation and keeping Liberals progressive credentials in check. They've done well to solidify enough left voices to move the Liberals into their territory as an electoral necessity but I don't see how they can ask for much more considering how little support they get across the nation. I wouldn't ask them to go contrary to the map last night's election presented.

Imo the "genuine left alternative" branding hasn't been consistent at all.

I felt Singh went as left as the electorate realistically allowed him to and kept at it.

*went* is the thing there. I think it was too late a shift. If he can keep the pressure up in government, maybe it'll be a different story next time around.

At any rate regardless of electoral returns it's the right thing to do. The Liberals' record has been woeful on so many things.

he kind of went left at the end a bit it seemed.

last night feels like a victory (especially for jagmeet) purely because the party wasn't decimated, and because - through pure chance - they hold the balance of power. but is that really that much of a victory? when you can only get 15% when running against mr blackface pipeline buyer go to court to fight indigenous kids it seems like there's really not a "progressive" vote to chase in this country

Also, I have no idea how the conservatives are going to build a coalition when the Canadian electorate clearly cares enough about the environment to have 60% of the vote going to pro-environment parties. Either they ditch the anti-carbon tax pro-fossil fuel stance and they lose a lot of their base in the Prairies, or they continue working with a very limited ceiling that just keep shrinking and shrinking as climate reality sinks in.

the conservatives are kind of screwed in that respect. they cannot change tact to become more moderate on the climate and keep their base. if scheer was pro-carbon tax bernier might have actually gotten more converts

I think the NDP is already seen as the genuine left alternative and also got clobbered. As long as the Liberals run as NDP Red, slightly to the center of them, I don't see a future for the NDP other than one of cooperation and keeping Liberals progressive credentials in check. They've done well to solidify enough left voices to move the Liberals into their territory as an electoral necessity but I don't see how they can ask for much more considering how little support they get across the nation. I wouldn't ask them to go contrary to the map last night's election presented.

Yeah, there's a case to be made that it is a good thing we have a large, relatively content middle class voting for a liberal party, with the NDP still there to represent (based on the map) mostly those who are left behind: Northern First Nations, blue-collar resource workers, lower-income post-industrial urban cores. (The Atlantic provinces foul up this generalization a little.)

At any rate regardless of electoral returns it's the right thing to do. The Liberals' record has been woeful on so many things.

― Simon H., Tuesday, October 22, 2019 1:45 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

You can't say 'regardless of electoral returns', the ability to plan and build policies in the present and the future depend on that.

One big big thing the NDP could force is the electoral reform considering a lot of Trudeau voters are keen on it. If Singh is able to rally these liberal voters against their own party, have the Bloc and Green help build a coalition, I can see it working out well and give either a huge lasting victory for Singh or a lot of leverage for other dossiers.

I'd prefer a principled, aggressive party in the margins to potentially build a rep and following over time than a toothless "opposition" helping to rubber stamp shitty policy. xp

i think electoral reform is dead

As long as the Liberals are in power, yeah.

+ an electoral reform that has the approval of 4 of the 5 major parties and 60% of the population is bound to be better and fairer than one proposed by one party.

+ there would be no doubt it would be Singh’s victory, Liberals will have a hard time claiming anything considering what they did in the first term.

i think electoral reform is dead

― Seany's too Dyche to mention (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, October 22, 2019 2:00 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Camp counsellor voice**

Well it is with his attitude

well the liberals are not going to go for it and they're in charge for 4 years. singh doesn't have that much leverage

It's probably apples to oranges, and I really don't know enough about Canadian politics to make the comparison make sense, but at the last election in Denmark, the two parties I'd call 'progressive' got 7,7% for the Socialist People's Party and 6,9% for the Red-Green Alliance. So 15% for a pseudo-progressive party and 6,5% for the Greens on top of that doesn't seem that bad to me?

There's not really a 'progressive' vote to chase anywhere, but in the end we punch above our weight because we happen to be right.

the Greens are the pseudo-progressive ones

ndp are social fascists comrade

shhhh

(actually the ppl I run with have arcane formal ties to the NDP)

well the liberals are not going to go for it and they're in charge for 4 years. singh doesn't have that much leverage

― Seany's too Dyche to mention (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, October 22, 2019 2:04 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I'm just saying that now that he has larger leverage than in the last parliament, he can use that newfound leverage to turn many liberals voters who care about electoral reform to his advantage.

Also the liberals are in charge as long as parliament allow them to, and I doubt it will last 4 years.

the average for minority gvmnts is something like 1.5 years, right?

Fred B.

I consider neo-Keynesian economics to be progressive in this miserable age of world neoliberalism and 55% of voters voted for parties who are very much neo-Keynesian. When it comes to sociological stuff like women's rights, lgbtq's rights, FNIM's rights, my count is pretty similar.

when the minority government falls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRnwK01n904

lol

oh yeah there was nothing as good in the debates this time as this from last time round

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZZdwOEu87I

xp: I consider all 'progressives' to be social fascists, comrade.

fred b otm

So back to Doug Ford?

The BQ benefit more than anyone from FPTP. They are not going to support electoral reform. I think the Liberals might go for at least seriously exploring it if the NDP make it a condition of support. They did campaign on it last time and even began tentative steps. The issue would be what electoral system we actually want to move towards. People who want ranked ballots won't necessarily ally with people who want MMP.

More than most policies electoral reform was always going to be a big compromise between diverging ideas.

Also Bloc thrived by staying within the CAQ ideological spectrum and we are heading towards electoral reform in Quebec thanks to Legault. Also I don’t think they care about fptp since they don’t ever plan on passing the post.

Not sure what you mean but the BQ's proportion of the seat count vastly exceeds its share of the national popular vote (which is just over half of the NDP's iirc) due to its regional concentration, and generally has for most of its history, I think, so idk how they would benefit from electoral reform on a national level. Obv they also benefit from vote splitting as the only separatist option so idk that preferential ballots would help them either.

It’s a fallacy to think voters would vote the same way and politicians campaign the same way under different electoral rules so these translations are to take with a grain of salt. I have good reasons to think that the number of seats Quebec would be allowed would have a similar proportions of Bloc. If anything Bloc is to closest thing to PR since they don’t have votes outside Quebec, ie the 5% in 4th place in Northern Manitoba that the Green are losing out on.

OK, fair enough. I agree about the fallacy.

fun read: https://www.tvo.org/article/election-post-mortem-part-1-a-conservative-insider-explains-how-his-party-got-it-so-wrong

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mydemocracy-survey-results-electoral-reform-1.3950671

I was one of the people who participated in this survey back in 2017 and pretty sure my answers amounted to not giving high priority to reform. I’m still not sure I’m for it. PPC would have actual seats right now if we did, and having a fairly intimate knowledge of conservative leanings from exposure to extended family members, I can confidently say that there is a growing element of cons whose true alignment is with PPC. It’s only the wanting the win that keeps them in check. Be careful what you ask for.

The danger with the current system is a more extreme leader hijacking the whole party (as Ford did, and Bernier nearly did) and the moderates going along for the win instead. I do find it interesting that the post Morton there doesn’t even touch on the idea that some of their lost support might have stayed home because Scheer was actually too moderate. Unfortunately my gut tells me it’s a thing.

Mortem. Autocorrect.

aside from last time around (when Trudeau supposedly energized everyone) it was the highest turnout this century, which surprised me. Most people I know were just generally disgusted with it all.