it's absolutely explainable
for sure
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 5 December 2019 15:49 (four years ago) link
And it's not really as if his campaign is going that well
― A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will), Thursday, 5 December 2019 15:49 (four years ago) link
I’m not sure what the barometer is for a campaign “going well”
being the california frontrunner can help, but the real key is not being tedious.
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 5 December 2019 15:53 (four years ago) link
I just don't get the idea that the Sanders campaign is going well on paper? He is polling ten points behind Biden in the 538 average, and Buttigieg has been surging in the early states. He seems to have overtaken Elizabeth Warren once more, but that's not enough, is it?
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 15:54 (four years ago) link
here's a better reckoning:
California poll: LATimes/UC BerkeleySanders 24% (+5 since Sept.)Warren 22% (-7)Biden 14% (-6)Buttigieg 12% (+6)Harris 7%* (-1)(*conducted before she dropped out)https://t.co/z9wl5lAgkw pic.twitter.com/Vj9OQR6jGA— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) December 5, 2019
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 5 December 2019 15:56 (four years ago) link
tbf Harris might see an uptick now that she's out of the running
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:03 (four years ago) link
Lol
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:05 (four years ago) link
Tsongas came in 2nd place in NY two weeks after he dropped out of the race
― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:10 (four years ago) link
in all seriousness I don't see any reason yet to assume Buttigieg has legs, and if/when people who aren't Harris drop out, most of those other candidates' fans (eg Gabbard, Yang) seem more likely to migrate to Bernie than anyone else. Biden still by some distance the biggest worry but I mean his brain could leak out the side of his skull at any moment
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:10 (four years ago) link
i definitely think it's worth noting, especially on the thread devoted to dudes' primary run lol, but i don't honestly see it as a huge deal. it seems to me his support does not come from joy anne reid reply guys who are super tuned-in to stories about primary polls
― sovereignty flight, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:11 (four years ago) link
Classic fred b itt. Sanders campaign not doing that well (he's the front runner), Mayor Pete doing well (no one that isn't white will vote for him)
― #FBPIRA (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:14 (four years ago) link
From someone who has a clue.
My take about this stuff is that being underrated in the major press relative to actual data is probably good for the Sanders campaign at this point. https://t.co/izXG5JbS87— Osita Nwanevu (@OsitaNwanevu) December 5, 2019
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:22 (four years ago) link
yeah it was Osita's thread that got me thinking about this stuff. (lol at the apparently real Jesse Jackson magazine cover downthread)
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:23 (four years ago) link
yes absolutely. the msm has a toxic reputation - it's a good thing if they seem hostile to you. (see also: djt)
― Mordy, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:23 (four years ago) link
― Simon H., 5. december 2019 17:10 (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
Right, but here's the problem. According to Nate Silver, Gabbard is polling at 1,6, Yang at 3,2. Biden is almost ten points ahead.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:24 (four years ago) link
Like I said, he's still by some distance the biggest problem.
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:25 (four years ago) link
That said, imo anything that chips away at his narrative of inevitability will chip away at his inevitability.
Being the frontrunner with white centrist melts is strategically better than being the frontrunner in California, btw. Sad as that is. Iowa matters a lot. I think Buttigieg is going to fall as well, btw, once the media takes a more critical look.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:26 (four years ago) link
Re Gabbard & Yang hives: I def anticipate some of their supporters coming over to Bernie, but I can just as easily picture either or both run bing third party and maintaining virtually all their weird respective fan bases. I can also honestly see some of those folks spitefully voting for Trump, assuming they even show up at all.
― A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will), Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:31 (four years ago) link
But none of that matters in the primary :)
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:32 (four years ago) link
Here is the kind of shit Nate Silver peddles every day on twitter:
am i losing my fucking mind. did every pundit just get together and decide this never happened https://t.co/qx3kpQfZtu pic.twitter.com/xXaVUySDv0— Virgil Xmas 🎄 (@virgiltexas) December 3, 2019
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:34 (four years ago) link
Go home, xyzzzz, you're embarrassing yourself.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:35 (four years ago) link
The clueless follow the clueless.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:35 (four years ago) link
Three weeks till Baby Yoda Fred, that's more your level
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:36 (four years ago) link
Did Virgil Texas get together and decide that Jesse Jackson got 1.5% in the Iowa caucus in 1984?
― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:47 (four years ago) link
nate silver is totally otm that iowa and nh are shitty states to start the primaries in and it's partially bc they're so unrepresentative of our nation as a whole. if the DNC had any brains at all they'd make the first primaries rotate based on what states in the last general were the closest (aka the most swing states) to try and produce the candidate most likely to win the most important states.
― Mordy, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:54 (four years ago) link
And I’m not just (only partially) saying this bc I think PA should get to go firet
― Mordy, Thursday, 5 December 2019 16:56 (four years ago) link
IA and NH are pretty insane about keeping their status. They will move the voting into December or earlier if prodded. (check Stranglehold podcast)
― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:01 (four years ago) link
DNC has the power to ignore the results tho
― Mordy, Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:02 (four years ago) link
shocking that a white minority insists on clinging to power by whatever means necessary, surely there is no precedent for such behavior in our political system
― Οὖτις, Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:05 (four years ago) link
NH law: “The presidential primary election shall be held on the second Tuesday in March or on a Tuesday selected by the secretary of state which is 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, whichever is earlier, of each year when a president of the United States is to be elected or the year previous…”
― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:06 (four years ago) link
nate silver is totally otm that iowa and nh are shitty states to start the primaries in
this wasn't really what was in dispute
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:17 (four years ago) link
He is right about why they are shitty as well.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:20 (four years ago) link
We're sort of off topic now but VT is right that Nate's "dataset" is way too limited for him to be making authoritative claims
theres been maybe 7 competitive nonincumbent iowa caucuses in this timeframe, and fewer involving nonwhite candidates. nate describes that as “40 years of data” to huckster people into thinking that’s statistically significant. this fuckin bimbo i swear to god https://t.co/HXqWCNL9jY— Virgil Xmas 🎄 (@virgiltexas) December 4, 2019
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:25 (four years ago) link
That's completely idiotic. There are other states than Iowa - I may be a foreigner, but I know as much - and the dynamic that certain demographics might like certain candidates is kinda well founded. From 40 years of data.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:29 (four years ago) link
i do not understand the fucking point of this conversation
― american bradass (BradNelson), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:30 (four years ago) link
It's a tankie melt argument, as bad as anything centrists cook up. OF COURSE giving extra white states extra influence is bad for minority candidates.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:30 (four years ago) link
i'm glad virgil was able to draw himself away from his glass cocaine table long enough to own nate silver and kamala harris all at once
― american bradass (BradNelson), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:31 (four years ago) link
theres been maybe 7 competitive nonincumbent iowa caucuses in this timeframe
from 1976-2016 there were 11 dem caucuses. 1996 and 2012 were non-competitive, but 1980 was definitely not.
― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:32 (four years ago) link
"maybe 7" is the kind of hard data that i go crazy for
― american bradass (BradNelson), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:32 (four years ago) link
in another tweet VT agree that they're shitty unrepresentative/arbitrary states to start with! what's arguing against is making the case for that based on data wonkery
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:33 (four years ago) link
*what he's, misplaced my glass table
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:35 (four years ago) link
― american bradass (BradNelson), Thursday, December 5, 2019 10:30 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
― american bradass (BradNelson), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:35 (four years ago) link
Come on Simon, that's not what Nate did to begin with. That's a new argument VT concocted because he realized he was shitting himself in public.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:36 (four years ago) link
We don't have to pretend we're idiots who don't know anything. 'Maybe 7' is a great example of this.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:37 (four years ago) link
― Frederik B, Thursday, December 5, 2019 9:36 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink
game knows game
― #FBPIRA (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:38 (four years ago) link
God I miss the days where marxists were more likely to be hardcore history/sociology nerds, rather than podcasters who can't count to seven.
― Frederik B, Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:38 (four years ago) link
marxists are into hardcore history?
― #FBPIRA (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:40 (four years ago) link
Fred and Mordy's nonstop po-faced posts and concern trolls in this thread are almost amusing.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:41 (four years ago) link
and I once again ritually FP'd myself for helping stoke this
― Simon H., Thursday, 5 December 2019 17:43 (four years ago) link