US threaten Iran with pre-emptive strike

I think morally - and long term strategically - supporting the side that invaded to begin with, and that really did use weapons of mass destruction, including against civilians, was very wrong.

― Frederik B, Tuesday, January 7, 2020 12:09 PM (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

iran also used wmd including against civilians. they also deployed chid soldiers on a massive scale. and although iraq was initially the aggressor, iran had pushed iraq out of iran by the spring of 1982, but continued an aggressive war against the iraqis, with the aim of regime change in iraq, despite the unlikelihood of this outcome and the military stalemate, for the majority of the war.

so the right wing talking point I'm seeing on FB is that this is actually okay since Iran kills homosexuals and women …?

iran also used wmd including against civilians.

This was never proven, though?

And, yeah, by 82 Iran was driving the war, but is that so surprising? If a neighboring country invades, and starts gassing border towns, you want to punish that country? Had the world done something before Iran pushed out Iraq on their own, perhaps the Iranians wouldn't have been so vindictive?

I'm not saying the Iranians were heroes here. But they were definitely the victims.

so the right wing talking point I'm seeing on FB is that this is actually okay since Iran kills homosexuals and women …?

― frogbs, Tuesday, January 7, 2020 2:29 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

It's not inconceivable that I'll live long enough to see the right espousing, say, overtly socialist talking points in the course of defending actions which might be of some benefit to them. No one said tribalism ever had to be coherent.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday reversed his threats to target Iranian sites of cultural importance following allegations that such measures would violate international law and constitute a war crime.

"If that's what the law is, I like to obey the law," Trump said.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reverses-threats-targeting-iran-cultural-sites-obey-law-2020-1

4 Pinocchios

It's not inconceivable that I'll live long enough to see the right espousing, say, overtly socialist talking points

You already have! Or have you not noticed the last 30 years of GOP rhetoric is about the pampered, overprivileged elite which dominates our culture and exploits the labor value of Joe the Plumber and other large-bicepped proletarians like him?

lol this dude rules

One Iranian attending Soleimani's funeral ruthlessly mocked western media coverage of the events

"Why did you come here today?"

"We're not here, we've been photoshopped...

This crowd is made up of ten cops, six revolutionary guardsmen, & two guys they bribed with juice packs" pic.twitter.com/eudg9UOHNU

— Wyatt Reed (@wyattreed13) January 7, 2020

here we go (that an NYT journalist, so this is real afaict)

BREAKING: STATEMENT FROM IRGC:
"The brave soldiers of IRGC's aerospace unit have launched a successful attack with tens of ballistic missiles on Al Assad military base in the name of martyr Gen.Qasem Soleimani."#Iraq #Iran #AlAssadBase

— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) January 7, 2020

BREAKING: Footage of Iran attack on US base Al Assad in Iraq.#AlAssad #Iraq pic.twitter.com/8CtLpgnsw6

— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) January 7, 2020

Reports say Iran is firing dozens of missiles into Iraq, hitting U.S. forces at Al Asad Airbase. Early reports say 20 U.S. troops have died, amid 60+ missile strikes so far. If true, then we are at the precipice of another horrible war in the Middle East.

— Mark Hughes (@markhughesfilms) January 7, 2020

oh shit

shit

that "reports of 20 dead" post is from a screenwriter and "quora contributor", not a journalist

Thank God

Since when has the truth stopped the asshole? No doubt we're on the cusp of an "I hereby declare we are at war" tweet, fuck everything about him and his enablers forever.

Thanks.

so ashamed of this actual shithole country

Sick to my stomach. I've been sick to my stomach for years now.

CNN’s Barbara Starr reports that Pentagon officials have been hard to reach “because they were sent home early for what was supposed to be a major snowstorm.”

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) January 7, 2020

Shitstorm, more like it

Video above looks like $3 M Patriot missiles being launched against $50k ballistic warheads.

I expected the next step to be the Iraqi government shutting off all grid water/electricity to US bases, and Iraqi militia setting up perimeters (at some distance) and checkpoints to prevent land supply. I still ~40% expect this to escalate to Iraqis levelling the US embassy compound with howitzer fire.

Long term, I've no doubt: the assassination of Soleimani means the US will be forced out of Iraq. Some $3 trillion and 4k+ American lives, not to mention 200k Iraqi lives and millions of displaced civilians, just so Iraq can become a puppet of Tehran. Its arguably the most stupid act by a major power in our lifetimes, alongside how the Russia seized Crimea and the Donbass.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/03/petraeus-on-qassem-suleimani-killing-says-trump-helped-reestablish-deterrence/

one of the smart ones

UGGGGGGGGGGGGGGH

Sick to my stomach. I've been sick to my stomach for years now.

― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, January 7, 2020 5:48 PM (seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

ugh

the hell with this miserable country

US fighters have been scrambled from multiple locations, including the UAE.

Unsure if this is a defensive posture or we’re retaliating.

— Angry Staffer (@AngrierWHStaff) January 7, 2020

It goes without saying, and wargamers both professional and amateur have worked this out, Iran will lead with cheap disposable ballistics against American installations and ships. This depletes the finite number of Patriot missiles (land) and SM-2s (naval). Second and third waves will have the better, more recent, more expensive, guided stuff.

And when America launches reprisals from Gulf states, desalination plants will be among the first targets. A bunch of Bangladeshi and Punjabi workers who don't have a stake in this will be the first to die of thirst.

It’s not really a great time for your “smartest guy in the room” schtick

skacritics both professional and amateur have worked it out: third wave to have might mighty bossmissles

Can we lower the predicting the future with certainty by 30-50% please

xxxp no that doesn't go w/o saying, these points are appreciated

*bossmissiles portmanteau-proof autocorrect needed now more than ever

Tombot OTM

El Tomboto: I don't care. Iran has been preparing for this day for at least 20 years. Trump chose to stick his dick in a wasp's nest. A lot of people who don't deserve it are going to suffer.

i get you guys but if sanpaku's gonna sanpaku, why not now, this isn't long-term speculation

Saeed Jalili, Iran's former top nuclear negotiator, posts a picture of the Iranian flag after the attack on Al Asad Airbase, just as Trump did with the American flag after Soleimani's assassination.https://t.co/QHgJAFt7vZ

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) January 7, 2020

My flag's bigger than your flag.

Reports say Iran is firing dozens of missiles into Iraq, hitting U.S. forces at Al Asad Airbase. Early reports say 20 U.S. troops have died, amid 60+ missile strikes so far. If true, then we are at the precipice of another horrible war in the Middle East.
— Mark Hughes (@markhughesfilms) January 7, 2020
― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, January 7, 2020 3:38 PM (thirty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

imagine being this much of a dickhead that you make up a body count for twitter clout. arsehole

Omg Kennedy on fox right now speaking absolute fucking nonsense Jesus Christ

One American official said six rockets had landed at Al Asad air base, but could not confirm that they were missiles.

Iraq’s Joint Military Command said seven rockets had hit the base. Iranian officials said the attack began at 1:20 a.m., the time that General Suleimani was killed by an American drone at the Baghdad airport on Friday.

Recommend the War Nerd podcast. Jon Dolan now puts most of his work behind a paywall, but his 2018 speculation on how a US-Iran conflict would play out is public. I don't disagree with him, though I think he didn't give enough attention to how Iran can shut down Hormuz for the better part of a year with sea mines. Fill your tanks. Buy fossil co options. And rice and beans.

%#%*^$^%$^

should probably go ahead and buy rice and bean options, too

Feels like a pretty sane retaliation by the Iranians. Now we’ll see if Trump lets it end here.

Not so important in N. America. It's East Asia that really gets screwed by Hormuz closing.

If there's any reason for hope in this situation, its in talk from the Iranian foreign ministry, like this from foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif:

This is an act of aggression against Iran, and it amounts to an armed attack against Iran, and we will respond. But we will respond proportionately - not disproportionately ... We are not lawless like President Trump

I gather from this that Iran plans to escalate, step by step. If we had sane people in the Oval Office or NSC, that would be an opportunity to pause and reassess. Sucks to be a sane person hoping for sanity from long term national adversaries.

Erin Burnett just now to Eliot Engel: “doesn’t the President have to do something?”

Reports that aides are making preparations for trump to give a televised address to the nation.

not good