bojo is king, brexit is on, stuff is fvcked, tomorrow starts here -- new govt new thread new battle

I am not entirely convinced by "the revolt of the Caring Classes" as a narrative, perhaps because it's under-developed here. As a grouping it contains proportionally more migrants (and children of migrants) than pretty much any other group in British society and that thread isn't quite followed through to its conclusion. (Also, the question about why Labour didn't benefit from that conflict, well, a lot of them aren't eligible to vote in this country). It's also the area where we are most likely to experience a skills shortage after Brexit.

Also the point about the LibDems at the end - Labour's Brexit policy was a disaster in the Midlands and the North but in the South and other metropolitan areas it served to checkmate the LibDem revival and cause them to self-combust. As the only pro-referendum party they would almost certainly have hurt Labour in those areas - either by taking seats off them or splitting the vote enough to let the Tory candidate in. (Also most Labour members, including its young activists, were pro-referendum, it had been on the table for years and would have made been voted through in a conference motion if there hadn't been an election).

Which is a long way of reiterating that Labour were fucked either way - probably the best-case scenario would have been a Labour minority government that would have been required to respect the result/deliver Brexit but without the Parliamentary votes to do so - or indeed anything else, as it would have been reliant on votes from the SNP or LibDems, not to mention its own rebellious MPs. And the defeated Tories certainly wouldn't have been inclined to help it over the line. The government would have collapsed in fairly short order OR they would have been required to sell out their Brexit policy in return for a confidence-and-supply agreement.

One of the very few good things about Brexit actually taking place is that it might actually nullify itself as an election issue and give Labour a considerably more straightforward path next time. And it's taking place very very early in this Parliament, early enough for it to be ancient history by the next election, so the Tories might not necessarily benefit electorally from it even if it isn't a disaster.

As a revolt against the managerial class, yes that makes sense, but that revolt is coming from other directions I think.

"One of the very few good things about Brexit actually taking place is that it might actually nullify itself as an election issue"

I'm thinking something similar, if Labour had managed win enough seats to form a minority govt they might have ended up wishing they'd lost with the interminable shitstorm they would have been walking into and to do deal with further brexit negging and deliver a radical manifesto at the same time time might have broken them even worse than losing!

although the having another five years of these cunts bit is a bitter pill to swallow.

So I've just looked into this and just under a fifth of people working in the social care sector alone are migrant workers, given the massive expansion that will be required in that sector over the next few years, that's going to be a serious shortfall unless as a country we change our attitude to immigration, and there doesn't appear to be much chance of that happening every time soon.

Also I would have thought British NHS nurses would have been about as reliable a Labour-voting bloc as exists anywhere, but what do I know.

Labour voting, yes. Remain, not so much.

One of the very few good things about Brexit actually taking place is that it might actually nullify itself as an election issue and give Labour a considerably more straightforward path next time

On some level at least people weren't just voting For Conservative / Against Labour, they were voting For Action / Against Deadlock. Give someone some power and let them actually do something.instead of sitting around arguing all day. I'm not sure thats really the democracy that people want, two builders arguing about how to fix the roof. The promise of another hung parliament wasn't the most enticing selling point

And it's taking place very very early in this Parliament, early enough for it to be ancient history by the next election, so the Tories might not necessarily benefit electorally from it even if it isn't a disaster.

While the Tories own Brexit now (maybe?), I can't see them carrying the can for any problems arising from it. Even in event of disaster I don't know the Tories will be carrying the can for that, I don't know if problems will even be attributed to Brexit in the first place. As to whether it will be ancient history or not, that will be for the media to decide

I agree with the article that says this is largely about drawing cocks on stationery while they're out on a two hour lunch again

but 'they' and their 'stationery' don't have to be real or current. We don't need to just get back at todays manager, there are the managers past and future to think about too.

hey, no talkin bad about two hour lunches

I can't see them carrying the can for any problems arising from it.

Yes, I know who will be. Women more likely to vote Labour and most care workers are women - actually no idea if the latter is true tbh.

The only thing that matters is the sweet moment a cheap Bic hits an expensive notepad. It doesn't even have to draw a cock, just the simple effortless movement of a Bic gliding into arena it doesn't belong in. Writing 'there' instead of 'their' is better than drawing a cock. That meeting of eyes, yes I wrote on that notebook was I not supposed to? His eyes narrow, he's trying to decide did you get that wrong on purpose, just to fuck with me? Do you have any idea how expensive these notebooks are, do you even know what you've done?

Yes, this is better than drawing a cock

'Most workers' is all fine and dandy for countries where elections aren't decided by pensioners tho

Whether it's a disaster or not is almost irrelevant, it's a question of whether the Tories will be thanked at the ballot box for having delivered it, or if people will have stopped giving a shit by then. This government's entire stated reason for existence will be technically fulfilled within two months of winning the election, that feels unprecedented to me.

Sort of, if you consider Brexit as a cause not a symptom. But if the EU was just the first and most visible of many symptoms of the grip the out of touch elites hold over the rest of us, well there may be more to be done. Donald Tusk, Jeremy Corbyn, Anne in HR, George Soros and Jenny at the Bean and Button Cafe have more tricks up their sleeve than just the EU.

It depends if they can continue in power as though they are in opposition. Trumps a master at it, can the Tories do it without Brexit? Who said it has to be done within two months? Who decides what 'done' means?

well

I'd like to congratulate @BBCPolitics and the @GdnPolitics for being the largest sources of referral traffic to the Guido Fawkes website. Top work. pic.twitter.com/LRdEYg6qAc

— J A Earley (@AlbyEarley) January 14, 2020

It depends if they can continue in power as though they are in opposition. Trumps a master at it, can the Tories do it without Brexit?

Probably depends on how long Dominic Cummings lasts, it's not the natural Tory way by any means.

Putin also an acknowledged master of this mode. It's pretty par for the course for the paranoid right-wing style, right?

Not for Tories though.

when the latest Nick Cohen article drops pic.twitter.com/05wniyt4GO

— tom (@malaiseforever) January 14, 2020

Labour obv need some bullying muppet (who isnt milne!) with a penchant for drawing random words on a whiteboard. Then they too can win this elective dictatorship game of only appealing to a minority of deranged pensioners but winning power all the same!

Probably depends on how long Dominic Cummings lasts, it's not the natural Tory way by any means.

― Frozen Mug (Tom D.), Tuesday, 14 January 2020 22:18 (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

In some ways its not the natural Conservative way, but what is the natural Conservative way? Peel? McMillan? Thatcher?

If it is to be the natural party of government then maybe it is the Conservative way. Realities change and positioning changes with it

Putin also an acknowledged master of this mode. It's pretty par for the course for the paranoid right-wing style, right?

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 14 January 2020 22:28 (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Putin is sort of different again, he has this but combines it with an appearance of ultra-competence. A constant external threat that he perpetually and almost single handedly keeps at bay does help with that though! He is a good model for "that guy gets shit done tho". This idea about competence is useless without resolve. I think this is partly where the strong man thing gets misconstrued. Yes a proportion of the public want a strong man because they're nihilists that want to a nuclear war asap we've all seen them. But a much larger proportion of people, subconsciously at least want to know that when they turn up for a job their supplier has got their materials there on time like they said they would, that their manager has sorted things out so there's no delay or hindrance, and they don't give a shit how its done. And if we can't have that well at least knowing you're in my corner trying to get me the tools I need to do my job, well its something, at least there's a chance you'll make something happen.

This isn't cultural, its not social, its psychological. Democracy is becoming conflated with bureaucracy, there doesn't even need to be an existential enemy, it can just be paperwork and bureaucracy. I'm getting poorer every year and the amount of paperwork is going up, this isn't a coincidence. Maybe if we got rid of the paperwork and got rid of the people bringing in the paperwork I could get on with my job easier, be more productive and even see a pay rise, how hard can it be? I wouldn't even mind but some prick somewhere got paid 4 times my salary to introduce this paperwork. Whats it all for? No one can give me a satisfactory answer. So yeah I'll draw a cock on your stationery

IT HAPPENED I MET QUEEN NANDY 💗😭 pic.twitter.com/Yy5E2CvdGG

— Ben McGowan (@BenMcGowan_) January 14, 2020

so not going to happen!

The fascist impulse is always ‘get it done’. It views liberal democracy as an impediment to the people’s will, and is always looking for someone to just do whatever needs to be done’. This makes crises of inaction very fertile grounds for them. But this impulse is at all points - from the cop who will use force to deal with the ‘antisocial’, to impatience with regulations, to the state being ‘hamstrung’ by enemies.

This has it all, the raging horn for the Sorkin induced delusion of what makes someone impressive, the sly dig at people on the left, and of course at the top, Femi.

Could someone do a satirical drawing of this please? Not the remainiacs guy though. pic.twitter.com/7sKOyasOUY

— Matt Wain (@TheMattWain) January 15, 2020

just when you thought those clueless Remainiac dickheads couldn't get any worse .. Dunty on what makes Jess Phillips so "impressive"

Of course fascism taps into that, but thats always there. For 'get things done' to take hold there has to be a feeling that things aren't getting done. But this doesn't have to be felt at that national level (although it obviously becomes that in the end), it can be felt at the local level and at the individual level. A backdrop of bureaucracy, complication. administration, and lack of accountability. A class of people that not only benefit from this and get paid more than we do but appear to actively enjoy the meetings where they discuss another wage freeze.

A political system which replicates this and even in some ways fetishises it, that for 3+ decades made a virtue out of all this. When someone is suggesting removing a tier of middle-management Kool and the Gang's Celebration immediately plays

Oh Christ, that is bad. And erases everyone who thinks Jess Phillips is a big steaming racist - I think Femi might be the only BAME person they see as an ally?

I think brexit finally getting done is making them even more incoherent and ridiculous than they ever were.

Not a single BAME MP nominated Phillips for leader. Everyone else has at least five.

she could have at least paid one to nom her!

Not all of them nominated a candidate for leader either; Kate Osamor didn’t nominate anyone.

that very reductive and stupid comment by Rayner the other day makes you wonder what it is like to be a black labour MP.

maybe just marginally better than being a conservative one?

There was a shouting match between RLB and Len McClusky a while back, apparently.

I genuinely thought I posted the Geller thing - it's a week old. Sorry for the Standard, but it has the better photo.

Uri Geller applies for No 10 job after Cummings' call for 'weirdos' https://t.co/9AyN0FaTX7

— Evening Standard (@standardnews) January 8, 2020

--

Yes Andrew I thought the Uri Geller thing was also posted a week ago I just made the point/joke in regards to the conversation you and gyac were having over Graeber's piece.

A backdrop of bureaucracy, complication. administration, and lack of accountability. A class of people that not only benefit from this and get paid more than we do but appear to actively enjoy the meetings where they discuss another wage freeze.

Yes and who drives this? Let's take the NHS as an example, as it's one of the areas where government has control of most of the levers, and where this care workers thing comes from in part.

- New Labour wants to invest huge amounts in healthcare, is aware that it will open itself up to the charge from the right that it's wasting huge amounts of money. The result is more 'accountability', the creation or expansion of a bureaucracy in order to demonstrate 'value'.

- Tories get in, are immediately, "look how much money we've been wasting on management - let doctors run the NHS" (Doctors: "hmmm has anyone asked us if we think this is a good idea?")

- Tiers of management go, budgets tightened, wages frozen, the same thing takes place across the public sector. Next up, someone's daughter needs a dialysis machine, oh shit there isn't one. Why not? "There's no money so we fired all the people whose job it is to ensure we have a dialysis machine", or even enough beds, the basic functions that ensure that things work properly. But the government continues to demand 'value' on every penny spent, so you need people to track that.

So you end up with this festering resentment, the health service isn't doing the job it's supposed to, front-line staff can't do their jobs properly, but they're wasting all this money on paperwork. Answer, more reorganisation, more bureaucracy. Why can't you just let the people who know what they're doing run it? The same thing happens across any organisation, public or private, above a certain size - if it isn't taxpayer accountability it's shareholder accountability or similar. The crucial point is that it's always being driven from above middle management layer, but it's helpful to create a despised class as a buffer between you.

So now that the Tories are finally in power after 23 years of Labour bureaucracy, how do they sustain themselves? Create chaos, then benefit from the resentment the chaos causes, because it's always someone else's fault. You're dealing with a group of voters who are, often, low-trust but also low-attention, not interested in detail. So the government will get Brexit done in a month, if things aren't going swimmingly after that, then it's the EU's fault, it was supposed to be oven-ready, now everyone's getting bogged down in trade deals and why isn't the country getting better? Blame the EU.

The problem with all this is that it works until the exact point until it doesn't. People were surprisingly willing to blame the bankers for the crash, until the expenses scandal, when it curdled into anger at the political class that let it happen. You can't keep passing the buck forever, because people are eventually going to see through it.

re: Graeber. It says a lot about Corbyn that he got a lot of anarchist types to fuck with voting at all (I don't know enough about Graeber though) and then as a vote for this kind of mild social democracy/regeneration of capitalism. A lot of the anarcho vote was one of 'let's get the state to stop killing people for five minutes'/stop the fash, but I don't know if that was his reasoning xp

I should probably finish Graeber’s The Utopia of Rules at some point.

Agree with that mostly but the Tories have only been in for a month! After over 4 generations of Labour rule at the national level, and in some places still at the local level, it may take a generation to fix what Corbyn and Tusk have engineered over the last quarter century.

They were more successfully at pinning austerity on Labour in 2019 than they were in 2016. Relying on people to see through it eventually may be a long game thing. Can they avoid accountability indefinitely? no. Can they avoid it for 5 years? Probably. 10? who knows.

What eventually will catch up with the Tories isn't this. Its the voters they abandoned in order to win this election (and possibly next). They've explicitly concentrated on voters that are electorally significant today, at the expense of voters that are electorally significant tomorrow (much as Labour did in the past, cf every think piece of the last month)

Also I forgot the bit where Corbyn literally held up a document saying the NHS was on the table in any US trade deal. The result was that people didn't believe him, or didn't give enough of a shit to let it affect their vote.

the electorate didn't even give a shit about skinny + hungry children at that time when ppl tend towards sentimentality.

those little fuckers aren't really hungry until they swelling with edema

"The problem with all this is that it works until the exact point until it doesn't."

Someone on twitter made a point that the cherry on top of the '97 Blair coalition was the UK crashing out of the ERM and the subsequent recession -- and that those people that voted Tory and went Lab in '97 were already down in approval terms by '98 or so in a lot of those areas.

So what is the event here where the Tories really can't blame it on someone else, what is the thing that will get people to vote Labour, and not to vote for things to be run differently, but to patch things up so things can go on as before? It could be a potential hard Brexit, it could be trade deals with the US going badly (China and India could be smoother as SV was saying a few weeks back)...or it could be people just getting poorer and managing the slow (and the key word is slow) decline in their own fortunes. New year's eve was very quiet in the pub I was at compared to last year. Not enough accoutants and lawyers and consultants doing so well, with a markedly reduced safety net to fall back onto if the line in the graph veers slowly downward.

xps - still thinking through this but it is a gap in Graeber's piece. The NHS does cut through, but does it? There is either a complacency over the NHS or maybe a lot of the public that have been let down over decades of deindustrialisation aren't bothered enough about free healthcare when so much else has crumbled. The Brexit dream will deliver something far more significant than the creation of the NHS from the rubble of actual war.

Also I am thinking the manager vs care worker dynamic I think works very much when talking about the Labour party membership but not so much in the rest of the country.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

Also look at the margins here, the idea that the Red Wall seats are probably gone forever now is defeatist nonsense.

Too right and I keep hearing it too.

Yes, it is. People keep saying that once voters go Tory it’s easier to keep voting that way, but I’m sure a lot of the numbers reflect a big drop in Labour turnout rather than wild enthusiasm for the Conservatives.

how many of those Red Wall seats are towns that will be beneficiaries of that £3.6 bn Towns Fund? Where I live is one of them and I'm betting it's still a top 5 worst shithole long after that fund has been pissed away.

There is either a complacency over the NHS or maybe a lot of the public that have been let down over decades of deindustrialisation aren't bothered enough about free healthcare when so much else has crumbled

A bit of both but probably more the former - a mixture of 'they wouldn't dare touch it / they wouldn't dare touch something that affects me' with not being able to imagine what it would be like with it gone. Complacency coupled with inability to imagine.

Also I am thinking the manager vs care worker dynamic

Its broader and less literal than that, the managers don't have to be in your place of work, the managers are everywhere, its the managers that made it that there's no one answers when you call the bank anymore. Its the managers who fucked up the last place you worked. and the one before that

the Red Wall seats are probably gone forever now is defeatist nonsense.

Red wall seats are far from gone, but prob need to differentiate between Red Wall seats (Preston, Blackburn) and RedGrey seats (Blackpool)

£3.6 bn Towns Fund?

thats goes straight into the hands of......bureaucrats and expenses

Appreciate the sensibilities of the creatures of the night may be a bit different, but lol, what the fuck Rentoul

It’s simply incredible that we have a national press that covers the full range of permissible opinion from “Immediately deport the foreigners” all the way to “Don’t call the man deporting the foreigners a baboon”, and nobody involved thinks this is weird or bad. pic.twitter.com/eSsDKW3MAc

— Flying_Rodent (@flying_rodent) January 15, 2020

"thats goes straight into the hands of......bureaucrats and expenses"

good job tbf - i find the prospect of improving/adding infrastructure to this shithole horrifying. it's shithole status is its main USP!