END TO END BERNERS: The Official Bernie Sanders 2020 Crew thread

This is just like an episode of the veep.

lol at making a circus out of elections but relentlessly omitting to have a workable way of actually processing and counting votes. Send in the UN election observers!

fuck American TV news in general.

just get yrselves an Antony Green and settle down

loooooool

So @CNN is interviewing a precinct official who has been on hold for an hour.

Then: boom, the party official asks the guy for his results.

"This is a real coincidence, Wolf, I just got off hold," he says, live.

Wolf asks to listen, he says yes.

*beat*

"They hung up on me."

— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) February 4, 2020

(video in the replies)

BREAKING: Juan Guaido has just declared himself President of Iowa, with backing from the US State Department. pic.twitter.com/Sz2vdKq6Rt

— michael (@Sisyphusa) February 4, 2020

pic.twitter.com/BtW9oV0vaE

— Krilldozer (@KrillTusk) February 4, 2020

lol at making a circus out of elections but relentlessly omitting to have a workable way of actually processing and counting votes. Send in the UN election observers!

yeah i think it's clear by this point that this tinpot banana republic can't be relied upon to deliver democracy

One other thought: there was a relatively fine line between Iowa scenarios that are quite good for Sanders, and those that are fairly poor for him given expectations for how well he'd do, and both of those are still in play based on what we seemingly know so far.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 4, 2020

🧐🤮🤔😱

ban non-US posters from these threads please

and this after i specifically said 'good luck usa'

rude imo

If this isn't to your liking sleeve I believe there is another msg board called 4chan where you can talk about this without foreign intervention.

lol you are so awful, go away

(I guess bg can stay along with Noodle, the rest of you can fuck right off)

barmy sleeveless

smoothbernie.jpg

The @PeteButtigieg campaign just released its internal results (covering 75% of precincts) showing Buttigieg doing the same as was reported by the @BernieSanders internal numbers. Meaning it’s clear that Bernie Sanders won the #IowaCaucus. https://t.co/aX4LW3ya8H

— Brent Welder (@BrentWelder) February 4, 2020

only releasing Buttigieg's numbers is *chef kiss*

I guess you guys are telling me I should not take my company Shadow Inc. public any time soon

bearing in mind i entirely believe incompetence trumps malice almost all the time, and especially in the case of the democratic party

Love that the discourse immediately became all about warning Left Twitter not to spread conspiracy theories and misinformation while the Biden campaign leaked a memo calling the eventual results into question and Pete literally went on TV and declared himself the winner

— Chase Woodruff (@dcwoodruff) February 4, 2020

Were they aimed at the left? Nate Silver directly called the Biden response Trumpian.

some were if surely not all -- tanden was plainly chastising concerned people

New Bernie Sanders campaign email claims comfortable lead in Iowa with Buttigieg in 2nd and Biden in 5th (!!!) based on internal numbers.

The email claims they've accounted for 60% of the vote. pic.twitter.com/5R2QB99Mmg

— Walker Bragman (@WalkerBragman) February 4, 2020

the people in charge of the Biden campaign are perpetuating fraud on so many levels I can't deal

Joe Biden's campaign record is hilariously bad

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_1988_presidential_campaign

Youth activism
Before and during the campaign, Biden had a tendency to invent a past as a marcher in the Civil Rights Movement. For instance, in a February 1987 speech in New Hampshire, he said, "When I marched in the civil rights movement, I did not march with a 12-point program. I marched with tens of thousands of others to change attitudes. And we changed attitudes."[12] Statements of this nature had been made by Biden going back to at least 1983.[27] Such statements concerned campaign advisors, who knew they did not represent a truthful recollection of Biden's past; Biden said he understood, but continued to make them.[12]

Following the Kinnock and academic revelations, reporters pressed Biden on the matter.[27] Biden acknowledged that his activities were actually limited to one summer job incident, where while working as a lifeguard at a swimming pool, he learned of racial inequality issues and joined black lifeguards in establishing a picket line around a local movie theater that had a segregation policy.[1] Biden said, "The civil-rights movement was an awakening for me, not as a consequence of my participation but as a consequence of my being made aware of what was happening."[1] Speaking to reporters, he objected to this line of questions as a whole, saying, "I find y'all going back and saying, 'Well, where were you, Senator Biden, at the time?' – you know, I think it's bizarre. ... Other people marched. I ran for office."[12]

Withdrawal
On September 17, 1987, Biden held a press conference at the United States Capitol in an attempt to address all these questions and put the issues behind him.[27] He acknowledged that "I've done some dumb things, and I'll do dumb things again."[12] But he vowed to stay in the race regardless.[12]

"I've done some dumb things, and I'll do dumb things again"

finally, a politician whose promises you can trust. biden 2020!

But he vowed to stay in the race regardless.[12]

he dropped out six days later

you don't stay in races by getting distracted with every nearby march

BREAKING: Bernie 2020 releases updated internal #IowaCaucus totals with 60% reporting:
Sanders 29.4%
Buttigieg 24.87%
Warren: 20.65%
Biden: 12.92%
Klobuchar: 11.18%

(video via @Juliess31)pic.twitter.com/IDFol1uzCN

— People for Bernie (@People4Bernie) February 4, 2020

don't get hung up on the fiasco, this is a v good result

BUTTCHARMENTUM

Listen to the end and BUCKLE UP, FOLKS. #IowaCaucus @majorityfm @bf1nn @NomikiKonst @Csaeraeny pic.twitter.com/FyXSz9t0ZR

— Kevin Marshall (@KevinMarshall) February 4, 2020

what the fuck even is a caucus lol, this is hilariously convoluted

Jeff Weaver's head is impossibly smooth

unlike his speech patterns

i'm of the understanding his brain is also smooth

for some reason I have this impression of HOOS as very high-minded and above the fray now

so it gives me this small joy when you sparingly drop zeitgeisty bits like the implication of a very smooth brain

on the failure of Shadow and budgetary problems that brought it about, from Nomiki Konst, who was on the commission to reform caucuses

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ui3tCfxkuQ

Iowa so lucky it doesn't have lithium reserves rn

— Czernobro 🌹 (@czernobro) February 4, 2020

for some reason I have this impression of HOOS as very high-minded and above the fray now

so it gives me this small joy when you sparingly drop zeitgeisty bits like the implication of a very smooth brain

― caucus fricked iowa account (mh), Tuesday, February 4, 2020 8:27 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Our Revolution was largely being run by enthusiastic bernie staffers until first nina turner stepped in and then brought jeff weaver with her, and the dislike of weaver was so strong that there were mass resignations on his first day

:(

This is very genuinely funny. (Please don’t watch if you’re not American or you’ll know we’re a failed state) pic.twitter.com/HAiyP9bKSz

— rob delaney (@robdelaney) February 5, 2020

lool wtf!

Failed state otm.

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia1.tenor.com%2Fimages%2F8805efb7561c18a5e0643f71c76cd6a0%2Ftenor.gif%3Fitemid%3D7985932&f=1&nofb=1

so wait what does the SDE number actually...mean? they're for delegates at a statewide convention, except, as I understand it, there is no statewide convention?

looool they really just dngaf about winning at the cost of possibly upsetting rich donors and consultant slime do they

Lol Majority Report had a caller who went to caucus for Bernie but only Pete and Amy were viable at his precinct. He ended up sticking around to help people navigate the reporting issues and since he knew more than anyone else they signed him up to be a delegate, but didn’t specify for whom. He was like is it cheating for me to vote for Bernie?

so wait what does the SDE number actually...mean? they're for delegates at a statewide convention, except, as I understand it, there is no statewide convention?

― bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), 5. februar 2020 14:36 (twenty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Sorry, it's long, but from the 538 explainer:

the final alignment is translated into something called state delegate equivalents, which is the third way that Iowa counts its vote. Until this year, in fact, this was the only way that Iowa counted its vote. It comes from a now archaic process where the caucuses technically served to elect delegates to county conventions, which in turn elected delegates to district conventions and the state convention, which in turn elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

This process is no longer used — delegates to the DNC will be elected based on caucus night results. However, state delegate equivalents are still used to determine essentially how much weight each precinct gets in determining DNC delegates.

The catch is that these weights are based on the number of votes that Hillary Clinton got in the general election in 2016 and that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Fred Hubbell got in the 2018 general election. And this can create some distortions. General election turnout is much higher than caucus turnout; 630,000 Iowans voted for Hubbell in 2018 and 650,000 did for Clinton in the general election in 2016. By comparison, 172,000 Democrats participated in the 2016 caucuses. Additionally, a higher share of caucus turnout tends to come from more liberal, upscale, urban and suburban counties and/or counties with colleges and universities, and proportionately less of it from rural counties.

Essentially, then, rural votes are likely to give candidates more bang for the buck in terms of state delegate equivalents. Candidates whose voters are mostly concentrated in liberal, highly populous counties are liable to underperform, conversely. There are various estimates out there as to who this is liable to help or hurt. But my read on the evidence is that Warren and to a lesser extent Sanders are likely to be hurt by it. Warren’s vote is mostly concentrated in upscale suburbs, and Sanders is hoping for big turnout surges in counties with a lot of young voters. Conversely, Klobuchar and Buttigieg have put a lot of emphasis on covering Iowa’s entire map and could benefit from this process. So could Biden, whose voters should be older, more working-class and more rural. To repeat, none of this is reflected in our model, which stops at the final alignment stage.

But despite being somewhat convoluted — and do Democrats really want to give more weight to rural areas given the party’s complaints about the non-representativeness of the U.S. Senate and the Electoral College? — state delegate equivalents are likely to get a fair amount of attention on election night. It’s the metric that the various networks and news agencies are used to using to declare winners. And it is technically the measure that is used to determine delegates to the Democratic National Convention, although the importance of Iowa comes from the momentum it produces rather than the number of delegates it has.

As you can probably infer, we personally don’t buy that state delegate equivalents is necessarily a superior measure to the other two.

To the extent Bernie candidacy is predicated on higher enthusiasm of supporters then lower turnout in Iowa is not a great indicator, regardless of how final vote count comes out.

in theory I agree but I'd like to know more about the demos that did and did not turn out, kif they ever feel like releasing full data on the goddamn race lol

Kind of feel like throwing a small donation to Bernie right now just as a fuck you to Iowa

Be prepared to weather a barrage of texts if you do.