rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

exactly

xp i call out people on the literally thing too. but the thing is, when i see donald trump, i see a big pile of shit with steam coming off of it, with a little crevice in the side moving up and down in time with the words that he speaks. he literally is a steaming pile of shit, and apparently 53% of voters also see it

she still lost white women though

Hilary Clinton >> Joe Biden

i agree too, it's a mistake to lump them into the same category. but i had to hold my nose for her all the same

She was definitely a much better candidate, but people didn't absolutely hate Trump the way they do now. hard to remember now but there was a time when a lot of online folks liked Trump b/c he was just eviscerating the GOP

I think enthusiasm for a candidate augurs success more often than people hating their opponent

Hillary would’ve made a better president and seemed smart and alert and awake but ppl hated her guts and they don’t feel the same about Biden

she did seem alert and awake! and sadly those do put her in another league, as a candidate

xp i call out people on the literally thing too. but the thing is, when i see donald trump, i see a big pile of shit with steam coming off of it, with a little crevice in the side moving up and down in time with the words that he speaks. he literally is a steaming pile of shit, and apparently 53% of voters also see it

Not that I disagree

In a just world, Hillary would be a stronger candidate than Biden, and I say that as someone who doesn't like Hillary much. But Biden Obama's VP and a good ole white guy.

it's up to Biden to fuck it up, and I trust he can do it.

yeah, i mean i'm not going to complain if you call donald trump literally a steaming pile of shit, but to call hillary clinton literally a steaming pile of shit seems slightly... hyperbolic?

I wouldn't bet a dollar on the outcome. I've generally thought GENERIC DEMOCRAT would win for the last couple of years and Trump will win people were just doomsayers, but so much of Trump's insanity seems to have been normalized and Biden is such a uniquely terrible candidate (we haven't even gotten to the BURISMA BURISMA BURISMA stage of things) that I wouldn't begin to guess how this will turn out.

but to call hillary clinton literally a steaming pile of shit seems slightly... hyperbolic?

yes, this is the part where i made a mistake, i readily admit

oh wait, and i called biden a literally steaming pile of shit, too.

welp

look in the time of coronavirus, etc etc, mistakes are made

Everyone who voted for the Iraq war is a steaming pile of shit

let me fix this for the record: we're faced with a decision between a literally steaming pile of shit and a figuratively steaming pile of shit. in 2016 the choice was between a literally steaming pile of shit and however we want to figuratively refer to hillary clinton

firm, but fair

Hillary would’ve made a better president and seemed smart and alert and awake but ppl hated her guts and they don’t feel the same about Biden

this is my one hope for 2020, people were mobilized to vote against Hillary in ways they won't be for Biden. I had coworkers who hated her guts for no discernable reason. we rag on the GOP for the way they fired off bad-faith attacks on her for 20 years but it sure as hell paid off

I wouldn't bet a dollar on the outcome. I've generally thought GENERIC DEMOCRAT would win for the last couple of years and Trump will win people were just doomsayers, but so much of Trump's insanity seems to have been normalized and Biden is such a uniquely terrible candidate (we haven't even gotten to the BURISMA BURISMA BURISMA stage of things) that I wouldn't begin to guess how this will turn out.

well the fact that "the president doesn't have a functioning brain" is now normalized is probably a point in favor of Biden now, sadly. by and large this is just what we've always known, most voters don't care about racism, corruption, lying, dead people in foreign countries, etc. etc...but once they start losing their jobs and having people they know die as a direct result of the President's incompetence, things might change. murdering 1,500,000 brown people on false pretenses didn't hurt GWB. the financial crisis and Katrina did.

I honestly don’t think Trump comes off as nearly as senile as Biden. We’re mostly judging him on content but he’s still a pretty confident speaker. Biden genuinely sounds like my 92-year old grandfather in the final year ‘decline phase.’

is this also the thread for "we're gonna have a Republican judiciary + sham elections for the rest of our lives"

however we want to figuratively refer to hillary clinton

― let me be your friend on the other end! (Karl Malone)

if you're asking my preference, i would prefer we not refer to hillary clinton, figuratively or otherwise. that's probably not a reasonable request, but it just seems like picking at an old wound that will fucking never heal over.

is this also the thread for "we're gonna have a Republican judiciary + sham elections for the rest of our lives"

― lukas

i feel like we should have a separate thread for long-term doom-mongering and we could try to keep this to 2020-only doom-mongering? but it's not my thread.

HRC is a white supremacist mass murderer who is partly responsible for this shitshow why should she get a pass

So good to finally have someone on this board who can weigh in from The Left.

HRC is a white supremacist mass murderer who is partly responsible for this shitshow why should she get a pass

shit really? Perhaps there should be some congressional hearings.

I honestly don’t think Trump comes off as nearly as senile as Biden. We’re mostly judging him on content but he’s still a pretty confident speaker. Biden genuinely sounds like my 92-year old grandfather in the final year ‘decline phase.’

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Thursday, April 9, 2020 2:52 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

i agree. i think it's hard to imagine Biden beating anyone but 799 people died in my state today of the virus trump was denying was a problem about a month ago so WHO KNOWS

Dumb asshole is gonna win, ffs

This site has enough rolling 77 threads for griping.

The thread title says what it’s for, it’s for this, so it doesn’t go in other threads

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWFrynfU4AASTY5?format=jpg&name=medium

Low numbers for Biden in both Trust and Don't Trust, so he does have room to improve if he's able to become more visible

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWFrynfU4AASTY5?format=jpg&name=medium

its tough when every major news network gives a free 2 hour commercial to your opponent every single night

in the main, no one's listening to whatever Biden says about covid-19, because he's not in a position to affect anything about it. people know that he's mostly irrelevant on that subject. it doesn't help that what he does manage to say is neutral boilerplate, stuff like 'I'd take effective action' that means nothing at all. I'd bet most of those trust vs. don't trust responders wouldn't be able to cite anything he said; it's just the usual tribal identification.

We should get Joe some of the shit from Flowers for Algernon

he does have room to improve if he's able to become more visible

Also room to get worse. Seriously, I would be all over a GoFundMe to (1) buy that man a teleprompter, (2) pay a trusted advisor to keep him on script, and (3) get some of them Deepfake tech whizzes to mock up some coherent speeches using his generically likable face.

he's gonna win every goddamn state https://t.co/RggsWIJkDH

— Andros of the Embers (@allahliker) April 21, 2020

of course he is

pic.twitter.com/cU6gIdMgGi

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 20, 2020

i forgot how wildly popular the initial travel ban and the wall and border separations were, everyone loved all that shit, this guy's totally right.

did we really need a new thread just for disgruntled sanders people to talk up trump?

I'd really like to see Biden put out an ad collecting all the times Trump made it sound like he wanted to fuck his daughter.

Trump is going to be president until we're all dead.

He'll never do it xp

ukilxors can't even be trusted to predict the results of uk elections

Trump is going to be president until we're all dead.

― Vegemite Is My Grrl (Eric H.)

only if he literally kills me

(xp) Not sure many, if any, predicted Corbyn would win tbf.

i remember the optimism during his campaign certainly from this point (8 months out from the election)

if he gets convicted it's totally going to hurt Trump and help Biden and it'd be insane to think otherwise. everybody keeps focusing on two groups - his 'base' (a word I'm thoroughly sick of now), or low-info voters who might be easily duped by the narrative that this is a political witchhunt. yeah ok, those folks are going to dig in w/ Trump, but they aren't enough to win by themselves.

Independents, who largely broke for Biden in 2020, have been breaking back towards Trump so far in the polls. hard for me to believe a few percent of them don't either decide not to vote at all, or switch their vote to Biden. and right now a small bump changes everything for either side.

it's not going to be the cataclysmic shift it should be because of polarized America, so the question should really be...how much will it affect it, and will it last? the 'grab em by the pussy' scandal didn't have the lasting damage the Clinton campaign expected (if they'd just timed it a little later though it'd have killed his campaign).

personally, i'm doubting it causes anything like even a 6 point swing, but 3-4 in realm of possibility.

ultimately though I don't think Biden supporters should have any confidence right now, and the whole 'well the polls are wrong' vibes are cringe. the polls aren't wrong, however they're a snapshot of now, not a predictor of later. it's not a matter of movement, it's in what direction do things move.

It often feels like Trump's support is a fixed quantity and won't budge much in terms of size, but it's hard to gauge where the enthusiasm for him fades off from "he's our gift from god" into "I hate all politicians, but that crazy fucker doesn't act like them so voting for him feels like kicking the politicians in the nuts." Trump fatigue may keep that second group from showing up in full strength.

otoh, it feels more like Biden's support is weaker but has lots of elasticity and room to improve. Mainly he should be fighting to strengthen his image, directing as much attention as he can to the good parts of his record. Reminding people how bad and dangerous Trump is good, but should be a minor point of emphasis. Most people know that without being told. It's just that they don't want to think about Trump any more than absolutely necessary and have been trying to forget about him as much as they can.

maybe a sign that the American empire is in free fall

God willing

"I hate all politicians, but that crazy fucker doesn't act like them so voting for him feels like kicking the politicians in the nuts."

trouble is this group really seems to not like the dictator shit which Trump is leaning pretty hard into

yeah, seems like his weakest area of support. the more often he runs, the more he looks like 'another politician'.

Is 2coops like "two scoops" but ... coups?

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all. I mean, for God's sake a jury found that he sexually assaulted someone and that had no impact...

America is absolutely circling the drain like the Soviet Union was, as its obsession with militarism and octogenarian leadership are exactly the same

Not to mention an absolutely benighted hinterland of bigotry, substance abuse, worship of violence, and rampant superstition

Oh, the toxic masculinity absolutely mirrors what you see in Russia and failed Soviet satellite states like Armenia

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all.

"No impact at all" is a stretch. "Some impact" on some voters, sure. Not enough to make him lose in November, I don't think.

I don't think it'll move the dial in any significant way. He's already had two judgements against him, admittedly civil, but one involving sexual assault. And nothing happened. On the other hand, if there's a hung jury and it's a mistrial, that will be huge. That will have an impact.

So you're saying "Heads, GOP wins, tails Dems lose."

I mean, I haven't been following the trial, as you can see from the paucity of Soto posts on the Trump thread -- I'm sick of the coverage even though of course it's significant -- but if a conviction moves enough people in Scranton and Kenosha that's a good thing.

Also: should the United States have a future, the conviction of a former president matters for precedent. Fucking Nixon wasn't even brought to court.

Very much hoping things will turn around, but if they do, I don't think Trump's legal shenanigans will play much of a role...

it would help if there were a simple answer to the question "what federal crime has trump been accused of?" apparently there are three of them, and jurors can pick and choose cafeteria style, and they don't have to all pick the same one.

I don't think it'll move the dial in any significant way. He's already had two judgements against him, admittedly civil, but one involving sexual assault. And nothing happened. On the other hand, if there's a hung jury and it's a mistrial, that will be huge. That will have an impact.

― Zelda Zonk, Thursday, May 30, 2024 7:04 AM (thirty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Maybe not significant, but let's hope a conviction will move the dial in a material way.

if he's found not guilty that could be a boost. if it's a mistrial it probably won't affect a thing. it's not like the entire country hasn't watched him escape accountability time and time again for the last decade. but unless things have fundamentally shifted in this country since 2020 in a way that hasn't manifested itself at all when actual elections are held it's hard to see how Trump's numbers could get any higher than they are now

it would help if there were a simple answer to the question "what federal crime has trump been accused of?" apparently there are three of them, and jurors can pick and choose cafeteria style, and they don't have to all pick the same one.

This is incorrect in multiple ways. He's accused of felony falsification of business records under New York state law. The idea that the jury does not have to be unanimous on this is a lie spread by Trump himself.

so the idea is there are 3 separate crimes here which should be misdemeanors, but when they're committed for the purpose of manipulating an election, then they're felonies. the jury has to be unanimous in that at least one crime was committed, but they don't all have to agree on which of the 3 it is (of course, the correct answer is he committed all 3)

there was a similar thing in the trial I was on, our defendant was charged with sex trafficking and we all had to agree he'd coerced the women, didn't matter if we all agreed on which method he used as long as we all thought it was at least one of them (again, it was all of them)

the point I'm surprised hasn't been raised more is exactly how this might've affected the election, back in 2016 people actually did care about the Access Hollywood tape, it gave Hillary a double-digit polling lead for a while, but of course everyone he lost drifted back to him. while Stormy Daniels doesn't describe what happened as rape she did say he's very much that guy you hear on the tape and that she was afraid of him.

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all. I mean, for God's sake a jury found that he sexually assaulted someone and that had no impact...

― Zelda Zonk, Thursday, May 30, 2024 5:05 AM bookmarkflaglink

it was a civil trial, not a criminal trial. you can't do jail time for those

oh yeah, a lot of other presidential candidates have had civil rape judgements. No big deal.

yes that's completely what i said, fuck off

would love one day on this board where we aren't all willfully misrepresenting what the other person said

lol

look there's a hundred disqualifying things about Trump right off the bat, it sucks but the people who vote for him have already swallowed so much shit that having a civil judgement passed against him is already baked in, on the other hand if there's one group of people this country really is prejudiced against (especially conservatives) it's convicted felons, obviously a lot of these people will vote for him anyway, but its definitely not good

I had a similar reaction when I first read ZZ's post, but going back I realized "no impact" was meant in terms of public perception not jail time.

Feel like the biggest impact will be how hidebound journalists will deal with him being a convicted felon, they sort of have to mention that even by their own dumbass standards of objectivity, no?

well that's the thing if Trump has proven anything it's that labels really do matter a lot in politics and "34-time convicted felon Donald Trump" is not a good one to have, you know the Dems will pounce on it and make this a huge focus of their race which will force Trump to lean even harder into "everything is rigged but I will have my revenge" mode which is exactly what turns off the swing voters

i don't really care to have debates about what the 'impact' will be in terms of the election because in my eyes, him being found guilty of rape, even if it was 'a civil trial', was the right thing to do ethically speaking. his accuser was extremely brave and put herself in harm's way more than once and could have bailed at any point and nobody would have blamed her but she didn't.

as far as why it didn't move the needle in....idk, polls, perception, speaks more to how society views rape. even if you get a rape conviction in a criminal trial, a sizable amount of people STILL believe the victim was lying. if there's video/audio of the incident, people claim it's faked (i.e. Mason Greenwood of Manchester United, where there IS actually multiple smoking guns, only for his fans to continue to say it's fake evidence). so if a sizable chunk of the population doesn't believe the average victim when the guilty party is just a random person, they sure as fuck won't believe it when it's Trump.

I'm not sad about that because it didn't hurt his electability, I'm sad about that because rape victims go through the most ridiculous stigma of anybody in this and other countries and this simply plays into that more.

a criminal conviction in this trial will probably affect the election more, because a) people seem to trivialize civil trials as if they don't mean anything, and b) it's not rape, which is trivialized in this country to where the accusers are always presumed to be liars. that in itself is fucked up.

This is incorrect in multiple ways. He's accused of felony falsification of business records under New York state law. The idea that the jury does not have to be unanimous on this is a lie spread by Trump himself.

he's accused of *misdemeanor* falsification of business records. what makes it a federal crime is the rest of this stuff, via CNN:

Merchan told the jury in his instructions on Wednesday that their verdict “must be unanimous” on each of the 34 counts that Trump faces and that, to convict Trump of felony falsification of business records, they would have to unanimously agree that he falsified business records with the intent to commit, aid or conceal another crime — that other crime being a violation of a New York election law. But Merchan explained that while this New York election law prohibits people from conspiring to use “unlawful means” to promote a candidate’s election, jurors don’t have to unanimously agree on which particular “unlawful means” Trump may have used; they can find him guilty as long as they unanimously agree that Trump used some unlawful means.

Prosecutors provided three theories of what unlawful means Trump used. Merchan told the jury: “Although you must conclude unanimously that the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you need not be unanimous as to what those unlawful means were. In determining whether the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you may consider the following: (1) violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act otherwise known as FECA; (2) the falsification of other business records; or (3) violation of tax laws.”

no, he's accused of felony falsification of business records, it is a felony because it is in furtherance of election interference, and none of that makes it a federal crime

the falsification of business records, by themselves, are misdemeanors. the smorgasbord of "unlawful means" which enable the NY election law to be applied makes it a felony. trump is semi sort of half right here.

the shocking chickening out of abject (russian) debtor / pathological liar donald 2coups silverspoons from clearing the family name by testifying in his first (?) criminal trial (hey libs don't dignify the witch hunt with compliance!) and pinch hitting disgraced former mayor of NYC rudy '9/11 was an inside job' giuliani's manic stooge robert costello (because trump org chief accountant allen weisselberg is already in jail for (multiple counts of) perjury) (and rudy is holy shit what a fall from grace)) is another sign MAGA nation is in ascendance

makes sense!