rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Not that I disagree

In a just world, Hillary would be a stronger candidate than Biden, and I say that as someone who doesn't like Hillary much. But Biden Obama's VP and a good ole white guy.

it's up to Biden to fuck it up, and I trust he can do it.

yeah, i mean i'm not going to complain if you call donald trump literally a steaming pile of shit, but to call hillary clinton literally a steaming pile of shit seems slightly... hyperbolic?

I wouldn't bet a dollar on the outcome. I've generally thought GENERIC DEMOCRAT would win for the last couple of years and Trump will win people were just doomsayers, but so much of Trump's insanity seems to have been normalized and Biden is such a uniquely terrible candidate (we haven't even gotten to the BURISMA BURISMA BURISMA stage of things) that I wouldn't begin to guess how this will turn out.

but to call hillary clinton literally a steaming pile of shit seems slightly... hyperbolic?

yes, this is the part where i made a mistake, i readily admit

oh wait, and i called biden a literally steaming pile of shit, too.

welp

look in the time of coronavirus, etc etc, mistakes are made

Everyone who voted for the Iraq war is a steaming pile of shit

let me fix this for the record: we're faced with a decision between a literally steaming pile of shit and a figuratively steaming pile of shit. in 2016 the choice was between a literally steaming pile of shit and however we want to figuratively refer to hillary clinton

firm, but fair

Hillary would’ve made a better president and seemed smart and alert and awake but ppl hated her guts and they don’t feel the same about Biden

this is my one hope for 2020, people were mobilized to vote against Hillary in ways they won't be for Biden. I had coworkers who hated her guts for no discernable reason. we rag on the GOP for the way they fired off bad-faith attacks on her for 20 years but it sure as hell paid off

I wouldn't bet a dollar on the outcome. I've generally thought GENERIC DEMOCRAT would win for the last couple of years and Trump will win people were just doomsayers, but so much of Trump's insanity seems to have been normalized and Biden is such a uniquely terrible candidate (we haven't even gotten to the BURISMA BURISMA BURISMA stage of things) that I wouldn't begin to guess how this will turn out.

well the fact that "the president doesn't have a functioning brain" is now normalized is probably a point in favor of Biden now, sadly. by and large this is just what we've always known, most voters don't care about racism, corruption, lying, dead people in foreign countries, etc. etc...but once they start losing their jobs and having people they know die as a direct result of the President's incompetence, things might change. murdering 1,500,000 brown people on false pretenses didn't hurt GWB. the financial crisis and Katrina did.

I honestly don’t think Trump comes off as nearly as senile as Biden. We’re mostly judging him on content but he’s still a pretty confident speaker. Biden genuinely sounds like my 92-year old grandfather in the final year ‘decline phase.’

is this also the thread for "we're gonna have a Republican judiciary + sham elections for the rest of our lives"

however we want to figuratively refer to hillary clinton

― let me be your friend on the other end! (Karl Malone)

if you're asking my preference, i would prefer we not refer to hillary clinton, figuratively or otherwise. that's probably not a reasonable request, but it just seems like picking at an old wound that will fucking never heal over.

is this also the thread for "we're gonna have a Republican judiciary + sham elections for the rest of our lives"

― lukas

i feel like we should have a separate thread for long-term doom-mongering and we could try to keep this to 2020-only doom-mongering? but it's not my thread.

HRC is a white supremacist mass murderer who is partly responsible for this shitshow why should she get a pass

So good to finally have someone on this board who can weigh in from The Left.

HRC is a white supremacist mass murderer who is partly responsible for this shitshow why should she get a pass

shit really? Perhaps there should be some congressional hearings.

I honestly don’t think Trump comes off as nearly as senile as Biden. We’re mostly judging him on content but he’s still a pretty confident speaker. Biden genuinely sounds like my 92-year old grandfather in the final year ‘decline phase.’

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Thursday, April 9, 2020 2:52 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

i agree. i think it's hard to imagine Biden beating anyone but 799 people died in my state today of the virus trump was denying was a problem about a month ago so WHO KNOWS

Dumb asshole is gonna win, ffs

This site has enough rolling 77 threads for griping.

The thread title says what it’s for, it’s for this, so it doesn’t go in other threads

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWFrynfU4AASTY5?format=jpg&name=medium

Low numbers for Biden in both Trust and Don't Trust, so he does have room to improve if he's able to become more visible

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWFrynfU4AASTY5?format=jpg&name=medium

its tough when every major news network gives a free 2 hour commercial to your opponent every single night

in the main, no one's listening to whatever Biden says about covid-19, because he's not in a position to affect anything about it. people know that he's mostly irrelevant on that subject. it doesn't help that what he does manage to say is neutral boilerplate, stuff like 'I'd take effective action' that means nothing at all. I'd bet most of those trust vs. don't trust responders wouldn't be able to cite anything he said; it's just the usual tribal identification.

We should get Joe some of the shit from Flowers for Algernon

he does have room to improve if he's able to become more visible

Also room to get worse. Seriously, I would be all over a GoFundMe to (1) buy that man a teleprompter, (2) pay a trusted advisor to keep him on script, and (3) get some of them Deepfake tech whizzes to mock up some coherent speeches using his generically likable face.

he's gonna win every goddamn state https://t.co/RggsWIJkDH

— Andros of the Embers (@allahliker) April 21, 2020

of course he is

pic.twitter.com/cU6gIdMgGi

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 20, 2020

i forgot how wildly popular the initial travel ban and the wall and border separations were, everyone loved all that shit, this guy's totally right.

did we really need a new thread just for disgruntled sanders people to talk up trump?

I'd really like to see Biden put out an ad collecting all the times Trump made it sound like he wanted to fuck his daughter.

Trump is going to be president until we're all dead.

He'll never do it xp

ukilxors can't even be trusted to predict the results of uk elections

Trump is going to be president until we're all dead.

― Vegemite Is My Grrl (Eric H.)

only if he literally kills me

(xp) Not sure many, if any, predicted Corbyn would win tbf.

i remember the optimism during his campaign certainly from this point (8 months out from the election)

How Optimistic Are You?

The optimism was always qualified. Not that it matters as to whether I'll copy and paste some fun tweets xp

uk ilxors weren't stupid for hoping and people who are despairing right now aren't stupid for despairing

you can come up with another word for 'believes that election results aren't likely to be correlated w/ polling data'.

young voters are undercounted because they don’t use landlines, i totally read that

every time Trump says "Sleepy Joe" there are a bunch of disgruntled Bernie supporters tweeting "holy FUCK he's gonna get 500 EVs" and it's super annoying

he is an unstoppable force, though also extremely stoppable by the guy who polled worse against him than joe biden

I try to convince myself that "trump is gonna win" as an emotional shield in case it happens, plus the idea of investing in "biden is gonna win" is fucking sad (admittedly "trump is gonna one-term" appeals).

OTOH, what I sometimes think about is a friend's dad who voted for trump. He's a middle-class white guy who is literally in the infrastructure business and actually bought the idea that trump being pres would help him. But he's also married to a South American immigrant, and while I don't know him personally I am reasonably sure there's no chance he'll vote for trump again. I imagine there's at least a few other people like that, and I can't see anyone switching to trump at this point—even as hyperbole, "he's gonna win every goddamn state" makes you look like a dumbass. Going full throttle white nationalist isn't going to help him win, the thing to be worried about is disenfranchisement not trump's masterly "political campaigning skills."

Going full throttle white nationalist isn't going to help him win, the thing to be worried about is disenfranchisement not trump's masterly "political campaigning skills."

this

has anyone read one of those "here's what happens if trump is convicted" explainers?

also i am pretty confident that if he's convicted, that will help him in november. this is, indeed, a weird moment

WITCH HUNT

The liberals and the crooked judges will do ANYTHING to stop Trump from making American great again!

who can even know what the charges are ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

i understand the eternal pessimism regarding Trump but i do not see any possible way conviction actually helps him

even if that alone doesn't change too many actual minds it still keeps him mad and on the defense which is not where you want your candidate to be, not to mention it might tie him up when he needs to be out on the trail

best i can say regarding the polls is that even if they are more or less accurate as things stand today they do still have RFK getting 12-13% and Trump outperforming nearly every downballot R, while Biden trails a bunch of the downballot Ds significantly. if that was how it actually ended I think it would be one of the all-time strangest results in election history. just saying I think there's a lot of room for things to move and it feels like way more people could be persuaded to vote for Biden than Trump

x-post-He will appeal the NY verdict if he's convicted on any of the charges and who knows when the appellate court will take up the matter

Spoiler alert, the appeals will get kicked down the road until after the election.

Onto the thread topic, I've been surprised to hear some normally optimistic friends who follow politics pretty closely and had been pretty confident that Biden was going to win start to back away from that position and, in fact, a couple of them told me they are steeling themselves for a likely Trump win. I can't tell them what to think or how to prepare, but depressing when the folks who've usually helped keep me from sinking into the despair are even starting to doubt Biden's chances.

that's what the thread is for!

I'm with frogbs: I see no reason to despair yet.

i do not see any possible way conviction actually helps him

Purely in terms of votes cast, as opposed to fund-raising, I agree. Voters who would be outraged at his criminal conviction are already outraged at his indictment and trial. I'm thinking he has maxed out all the value he can derive from the "I'm being persecuted like nobody else in all of history" narrative, except for skimming off some more campaign money. It remains to be seen if more money can translate into more votes. This is such a weird election.

normally optimistic friends of mine have settled fully into 'don't count your chickens before they're hatched like we did with hillary' mode. i think lots of people were gearing up to demonstrate they'd learned that lesson in 2020 before march and the covid shutdown turned 2coops v sleepy joe into unprecedented chaos. i think the polls are reflecting that in some fashion, in the same way that 2coops' MAGAts are clearly outnumbered but then again way, way, way louder than everyone else, because they tend to be rude assholes. will they be loud enough to drown out how effectively or not "conservative" state legislatures and judges and mike johnson's house of representatives will cheat when 2scoops legit loses, is what i wonder

And, perhaps, they are the people who pick up phones and speak to pollsters.

I wish we could contain all the witty Trump nicknames somewhere

It remains to be seen if more money can translate into more votes. This is such a weird election.

that would be good for Biden then, given he's way outraised Trump and has already bought up most of the fall advertising, also he isn't spending 8 figure sums on legal bills

Onto the thread topic, I've been surprised to hear some normally optimistic friends who follow politics pretty closely and had been pretty confident that Biden was going to win start to back away from that position and, in fact, a couple of them told me they are steeling themselves for a likely Trump win.

I get where this comes from I mean if you follow politics closely it's pretty disheartening right now like Trump is on trial for 34 felonies and is alternating between falling asleep in court and raving like a lunatic outside of it, and yet it's not moving the needle at all, in fact that DJT stock is constantly going up despite the company losing unbelievable sums of money, everything seems so divorced from reality right now

then again maybe it's good to remember most people don't follow this like we do, they may know Trump is on trial but have no clue how it's actually going, if he's found guilty and it still doesn't change anything then I'd be kinda worried

I mean this morning I was thinking about Watergate, how we were told in school (and through documentaries and feature films) that this was one of the biggest scandals in US Political history, and now we've got a guy just doing illegal shit out in the open, stuff way worse than Watergate, and at such a high frequency that nobody can even keep track of it all, and it's currently being debated whether or not this will actually HELP him in the end, maybe a sign that the American empire is in free fall

if he gets convicted it's totally going to hurt Trump and help Biden and it'd be insane to think otherwise. everybody keeps focusing on two groups - his 'base' (a word I'm thoroughly sick of now), or low-info voters who might be easily duped by the narrative that this is a political witchhunt. yeah ok, those folks are going to dig in w/ Trump, but they aren't enough to win by themselves.

Independents, who largely broke for Biden in 2020, have been breaking back towards Trump so far in the polls. hard for me to believe a few percent of them don't either decide not to vote at all, or switch their vote to Biden. and right now a small bump changes everything for either side.

it's not going to be the cataclysmic shift it should be because of polarized America, so the question should really be...how much will it affect it, and will it last? the 'grab em by the pussy' scandal didn't have the lasting damage the Clinton campaign expected (if they'd just timed it a little later though it'd have killed his campaign).

personally, i'm doubting it causes anything like even a 6 point swing, but 3-4 in realm of possibility.

ultimately though I don't think Biden supporters should have any confidence right now, and the whole 'well the polls are wrong' vibes are cringe. the polls aren't wrong, however they're a snapshot of now, not a predictor of later. it's not a matter of movement, it's in what direction do things move.

It often feels like Trump's support is a fixed quantity and won't budge much in terms of size, but it's hard to gauge where the enthusiasm for him fades off from "he's our gift from god" into "I hate all politicians, but that crazy fucker doesn't act like them so voting for him feels like kicking the politicians in the nuts." Trump fatigue may keep that second group from showing up in full strength.

otoh, it feels more like Biden's support is weaker but has lots of elasticity and room to improve. Mainly he should be fighting to strengthen his image, directing as much attention as he can to the good parts of his record. Reminding people how bad and dangerous Trump is good, but should be a minor point of emphasis. Most people know that without being told. It's just that they don't want to think about Trump any more than absolutely necessary and have been trying to forget about him as much as they can.

maybe a sign that the American empire is in free fall

God willing

"I hate all politicians, but that crazy fucker doesn't act like them so voting for him feels like kicking the politicians in the nuts."

trouble is this group really seems to not like the dictator shit which Trump is leaning pretty hard into

yeah, seems like his weakest area of support. the more often he runs, the more he looks like 'another politician'.

Is 2coops like "two scoops" but ... coups?

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all. I mean, for God's sake a jury found that he sexually assaulted someone and that had no impact...

America is absolutely circling the drain like the Soviet Union was, as its obsession with militarism and octogenarian leadership are exactly the same

Not to mention an absolutely benighted hinterland of bigotry, substance abuse, worship of violence, and rampant superstition