rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Everyone who voted for the Iraq war is a steaming pile of shit

let me fix this for the record: we're faced with a decision between a literally steaming pile of shit and a figuratively steaming pile of shit. in 2016 the choice was between a literally steaming pile of shit and however we want to figuratively refer to hillary clinton

firm, but fair

Hillary would’ve made a better president and seemed smart and alert and awake but ppl hated her guts and they don’t feel the same about Biden

this is my one hope for 2020, people were mobilized to vote against Hillary in ways they won't be for Biden. I had coworkers who hated her guts for no discernable reason. we rag on the GOP for the way they fired off bad-faith attacks on her for 20 years but it sure as hell paid off

I wouldn't bet a dollar on the outcome. I've generally thought GENERIC DEMOCRAT would win for the last couple of years and Trump will win people were just doomsayers, but so much of Trump's insanity seems to have been normalized and Biden is such a uniquely terrible candidate (we haven't even gotten to the BURISMA BURISMA BURISMA stage of things) that I wouldn't begin to guess how this will turn out.

well the fact that "the president doesn't have a functioning brain" is now normalized is probably a point in favor of Biden now, sadly. by and large this is just what we've always known, most voters don't care about racism, corruption, lying, dead people in foreign countries, etc. etc...but once they start losing their jobs and having people they know die as a direct result of the President's incompetence, things might change. murdering 1,500,000 brown people on false pretenses didn't hurt GWB. the financial crisis and Katrina did.

I honestly don’t think Trump comes off as nearly as senile as Biden. We’re mostly judging him on content but he’s still a pretty confident speaker. Biden genuinely sounds like my 92-year old grandfather in the final year ‘decline phase.’

is this also the thread for "we're gonna have a Republican judiciary + sham elections for the rest of our lives"

however we want to figuratively refer to hillary clinton

― let me be your friend on the other end! (Karl Malone)

if you're asking my preference, i would prefer we not refer to hillary clinton, figuratively or otherwise. that's probably not a reasonable request, but it just seems like picking at an old wound that will fucking never heal over.

is this also the thread for "we're gonna have a Republican judiciary + sham elections for the rest of our lives"

― lukas

i feel like we should have a separate thread for long-term doom-mongering and we could try to keep this to 2020-only doom-mongering? but it's not my thread.

HRC is a white supremacist mass murderer who is partly responsible for this shitshow why should she get a pass

So good to finally have someone on this board who can weigh in from The Left.

HRC is a white supremacist mass murderer who is partly responsible for this shitshow why should she get a pass

shit really? Perhaps there should be some congressional hearings.

I honestly don’t think Trump comes off as nearly as senile as Biden. We’re mostly judging him on content but he’s still a pretty confident speaker. Biden genuinely sounds like my 92-year old grandfather in the final year ‘decline phase.’

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Thursday, April 9, 2020 2:52 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

i agree. i think it's hard to imagine Biden beating anyone but 799 people died in my state today of the virus trump was denying was a problem about a month ago so WHO KNOWS

Dumb asshole is gonna win, ffs

This site has enough rolling 77 threads for griping.

The thread title says what it’s for, it’s for this, so it doesn’t go in other threads

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWFrynfU4AASTY5?format=jpg&name=medium

Low numbers for Biden in both Trust and Don't Trust, so he does have room to improve if he's able to become more visible

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWFrynfU4AASTY5?format=jpg&name=medium

its tough when every major news network gives a free 2 hour commercial to your opponent every single night

in the main, no one's listening to whatever Biden says about covid-19, because he's not in a position to affect anything about it. people know that he's mostly irrelevant on that subject. it doesn't help that what he does manage to say is neutral boilerplate, stuff like 'I'd take effective action' that means nothing at all. I'd bet most of those trust vs. don't trust responders wouldn't be able to cite anything he said; it's just the usual tribal identification.

We should get Joe some of the shit from Flowers for Algernon

he does have room to improve if he's able to become more visible

Also room to get worse. Seriously, I would be all over a GoFundMe to (1) buy that man a teleprompter, (2) pay a trusted advisor to keep him on script, and (3) get some of them Deepfake tech whizzes to mock up some coherent speeches using his generically likable face.

he's gonna win every goddamn state https://t.co/RggsWIJkDH

— Andros of the Embers (@allahliker) April 21, 2020

of course he is

pic.twitter.com/cU6gIdMgGi

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 20, 2020

i forgot how wildly popular the initial travel ban and the wall and border separations were, everyone loved all that shit, this guy's totally right.

did we really need a new thread just for disgruntled sanders people to talk up trump?

I'd really like to see Biden put out an ad collecting all the times Trump made it sound like he wanted to fuck his daughter.

Trump is going to be president until we're all dead.

He'll never do it xp

ukilxors can't even be trusted to predict the results of uk elections

Trump is going to be president until we're all dead.

― Vegemite Is My Grrl (Eric H.)

only if he literally kills me

(xp) Not sure many, if any, predicted Corbyn would win tbf.

i remember the optimism during his campaign certainly from this point (8 months out from the election)

How Optimistic Are You?

The optimism was always qualified. Not that it matters as to whether I'll copy and paste some fun tweets xp

uk ilxors weren't stupid for hoping and people who are despairing right now aren't stupid for despairing

you can come up with another word for 'believes that election results aren't likely to be correlated w/ polling data'.

young voters are undercounted because they don’t use landlines, i totally read that

every time Trump says "Sleepy Joe" there are a bunch of disgruntled Bernie supporters tweeting "holy FUCK he's gonna get 500 EVs" and it's super annoying

he is an unstoppable force, though also extremely stoppable by the guy who polled worse against him than joe biden

I try to convince myself that "trump is gonna win" as an emotional shield in case it happens, plus the idea of investing in "biden is gonna win" is fucking sad (admittedly "trump is gonna one-term" appeals).

OTOH, what I sometimes think about is a friend's dad who voted for trump. He's a middle-class white guy who is literally in the infrastructure business and actually bought the idea that trump being pres would help him. But he's also married to a South American immigrant, and while I don't know him personally I am reasonably sure there's no chance he'll vote for trump again. I imagine there's at least a few other people like that, and I can't see anyone switching to trump at this point—even as hyperbole, "he's gonna win every goddamn state" makes you look like a dumbass. Going full throttle white nationalist isn't going to help him win, the thing to be worried about is disenfranchisement not trump's masterly "political campaigning skills."

Going full throttle white nationalist isn't going to help him win, the thing to be worried about is disenfranchisement not trump's masterly "political campaigning skills."

this

ultimately Trump had two big selling points for persuadable voters in 2020 - "at least the economy is doing well" and "yeah he's an incompetent racist dumbass but none of that really affects ME...", and now we're in a situation where millions are losing their jobs, 100,000 Americans will die, and the economy is cratering, and a lot of that can be traced back to Trump's incompetence. I just don't know who he *gains* in 2020.

like one thing I heard a lot in 2016 was "what's the worst that can happen, things already suck for us and the Presidency is mostly a show job" and well, now we know

can we lock this thread?

all true, but also

none of that really affects ME.

He could lose a few handfuls of voters out of sheer stupidity. I mean I haven't looked up the numbers or anything, but another thing to consider: I am a straight white man who normally isn't subject to trump's attacks...except I'm an immigrant (I was a baby, but it's not like I forgot)

can we lock this thread?

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, April 21, 2020 9:38 AM (thirty-three seconds ago)

If we do I’m gonna have to post “Trump is gonna win” when I’m stressed out in other threads instead of this one which I made so I wouldn’t do that!!

ftr, I approve of this thread's existence! Give me a few weeks and I'll probably post something stressed out myself; I almost did after watching Biden on Desus & Mero

If we do I’m gonna have to post “Trump is gonna win” when I’m stressed out in other threads instead of this one which I made so I wouldn’t do that!!

― silby, Tuesday, April 21, 2020

I'd prefer that option; this is just one more thread to worry about.

I appreciate your concern for my acid reflux I guess!

if he's found not guilty that could be a boost. if it's a mistrial it probably won't affect a thing. it's not like the entire country hasn't watched him escape accountability time and time again for the last decade. but unless things have fundamentally shifted in this country since 2020 in a way that hasn't manifested itself at all when actual elections are held it's hard to see how Trump's numbers could get any higher than they are now

it would help if there were a simple answer to the question "what federal crime has trump been accused of?" apparently there are three of them, and jurors can pick and choose cafeteria style, and they don't have to all pick the same one.

This is incorrect in multiple ways. He's accused of felony falsification of business records under New York state law. The idea that the jury does not have to be unanimous on this is a lie spread by Trump himself.

so the idea is there are 3 separate crimes here which should be misdemeanors, but when they're committed for the purpose of manipulating an election, then they're felonies. the jury has to be unanimous in that at least one crime was committed, but they don't all have to agree on which of the 3 it is (of course, the correct answer is he committed all 3)

there was a similar thing in the trial I was on, our defendant was charged with sex trafficking and we all had to agree he'd coerced the women, didn't matter if we all agreed on which method he used as long as we all thought it was at least one of them (again, it was all of them)

the point I'm surprised hasn't been raised more is exactly how this might've affected the election, back in 2016 people actually did care about the Access Hollywood tape, it gave Hillary a double-digit polling lead for a while, but of course everyone he lost drifted back to him. while Stormy Daniels doesn't describe what happened as rape she did say he's very much that guy you hear on the tape and that she was afraid of him.

He's unlikely to do jail time so a conviction is going to have no impact at all. I mean, for God's sake a jury found that he sexually assaulted someone and that had no impact...

― Zelda Zonk, Thursday, May 30, 2024 5:05 AM bookmarkflaglink

it was a civil trial, not a criminal trial. you can't do jail time for those

oh yeah, a lot of other presidential candidates have had civil rape judgements. No big deal.

yes that's completely what i said, fuck off

would love one day on this board where we aren't all willfully misrepresenting what the other person said

lol

look there's a hundred disqualifying things about Trump right off the bat, it sucks but the people who vote for him have already swallowed so much shit that having a civil judgement passed against him is already baked in, on the other hand if there's one group of people this country really is prejudiced against (especially conservatives) it's convicted felons, obviously a lot of these people will vote for him anyway, but its definitely not good

I had a similar reaction when I first read ZZ's post, but going back I realized "no impact" was meant in terms of public perception not jail time.

Feel like the biggest impact will be how hidebound journalists will deal with him being a convicted felon, they sort of have to mention that even by their own dumbass standards of objectivity, no?

well that's the thing if Trump has proven anything it's that labels really do matter a lot in politics and "34-time convicted felon Donald Trump" is not a good one to have, you know the Dems will pounce on it and make this a huge focus of their race which will force Trump to lean even harder into "everything is rigged but I will have my revenge" mode which is exactly what turns off the swing voters

i don't really care to have debates about what the 'impact' will be in terms of the election because in my eyes, him being found guilty of rape, even if it was 'a civil trial', was the right thing to do ethically speaking. his accuser was extremely brave and put herself in harm's way more than once and could have bailed at any point and nobody would have blamed her but she didn't.

as far as why it didn't move the needle in....idk, polls, perception, speaks more to how society views rape. even if you get a rape conviction in a criminal trial, a sizable amount of people STILL believe the victim was lying. if there's video/audio of the incident, people claim it's faked (i.e. Mason Greenwood of Manchester United, where there IS actually multiple smoking guns, only for his fans to continue to say it's fake evidence). so if a sizable chunk of the population doesn't believe the average victim when the guilty party is just a random person, they sure as fuck won't believe it when it's Trump.

I'm not sad about that because it didn't hurt his electability, I'm sad about that because rape victims go through the most ridiculous stigma of anybody in this and other countries and this simply plays into that more.

a criminal conviction in this trial will probably affect the election more, because a) people seem to trivialize civil trials as if they don't mean anything, and b) it's not rape, which is trivialized in this country to where the accusers are always presumed to be liars. that in itself is fucked up.

This is incorrect in multiple ways. He's accused of felony falsification of business records under New York state law. The idea that the jury does not have to be unanimous on this is a lie spread by Trump himself.

he's accused of *misdemeanor* falsification of business records. what makes it a federal crime is the rest of this stuff, via CNN:

Merchan told the jury in his instructions on Wednesday that their verdict “must be unanimous” on each of the 34 counts that Trump faces and that, to convict Trump of felony falsification of business records, they would have to unanimously agree that he falsified business records with the intent to commit, aid or conceal another crime — that other crime being a violation of a New York election law. But Merchan explained that while this New York election law prohibits people from conspiring to use “unlawful means” to promote a candidate’s election, jurors don’t have to unanimously agree on which particular “unlawful means” Trump may have used; they can find him guilty as long as they unanimously agree that Trump used some unlawful means.

Prosecutors provided three theories of what unlawful means Trump used. Merchan told the jury: “Although you must conclude unanimously that the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you need not be unanimous as to what those unlawful means were. In determining whether the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you may consider the following: (1) violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act otherwise known as FECA; (2) the falsification of other business records; or (3) violation of tax laws.”

no, he's accused of felony falsification of business records, it is a felony because it is in furtherance of election interference, and none of that makes it a federal crime

the falsification of business records, by themselves, are misdemeanors. the smorgasbord of "unlawful means" which enable the NY election law to be applied makes it a felony. trump is semi sort of half right here.

the shocking chickening out of abject (russian) debtor / pathological liar donald 2coups silverspoons from clearing the family name by testifying in his first (?) criminal trial (hey libs don't dignify the witch hunt with compliance!) and pinch hitting disgraced former mayor of NYC rudy '9/11 was an inside job' giuliani's manic stooge robert costello (because trump org chief accountant allen weisselberg is already in jail for (multiple counts of) perjury) (and rudy is holy shit what a fall from grace)) is another sign MAGA nation is in ascendance

makes sense!