love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

I'm not really expecting anything beyond the tiniest relaxation of the rules on Sunday tbh - the front pages of the last few days feel like leaks intended to pressure the government by whipping up public opinion or sowing confusion.

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/scraping-along-the-bottom-april-air-traffic-statistics/

Commerical flights down 73% year on year. Huge drop but thats still a lot of flights

My folks were repatriated from NZ 2 weeks ago. No hand gel or masks on the flight; no masks at the airport and nothing beyond 'stay inside for 2 weeks, yeah?' as messaging. Incredible.

No temperature checks either apparently

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104036/novel-coronavirus-weekly-flights-change-airlines-region/

Actually this tells slightly a more specific story, UK flights down 92% since january, China flights down 32%, Japan down 47%

We’ll peak again

― Microbes oft teem (wins), Saturday, May 9, 2020 10:46 AM (twelve minutes ago)

Wins wins.

Are there any countries that have managed to get the rent / mortgage issue right?

Don't know but this is a very good tweet on this hit policy.

One thought about Labour’s renters policy: it looks like and could easily be an Ed Balls-era policy. But it’s arguably even more timid because the context isn’t 2011’s neoliberal hegemony; its 2020, even the Tories are using the state to pay 80% of people’s wages, its wide open

— Jon Stone (@joncstone) May 9, 2020

*shit, real disaster.

It's like Labour are asking where will the renters go.

It’s a bad policy but I’m still looking for someone on the Labour left to propose a good one. I haven’t seen much about, for example, removing housing benefit caps.

Are there any countries that have managed to get the rent / mortgage issue right?

I'll quote myself from my own little red book: "when dealing with seemingly intractable problems caused by parasitic class enemies, it often better to use the blunt force of a lump hammer rather than the delicate touch of a surgeon's knife"

" I haven’t seen much about, for example, removing housing benefit caps."

there will be plenty of knowledgeable ppl on housing problems out there with good ideas, but they aren't the Labour Party leader.

This is more like it, from a group that spends most of its time fighting Labour councils.

Good summary of the evictions crisis that we face in June if the government does not commit to proper help for renters. We need:
increase housing benefit
scrap the benefit cap
scrap section 21 & ground 8
end 5 week wait for Universal Credit
council homeshttps://t.co/NH0lWxreDh

— HASL (@HousingActionSL) May 8, 2020

Yes, that’s very good.

Reckon parts of that would be lab left policy, but they don't make policy in the Labour party.

I suppose it depends on what you think a policy like this is actually for, given it has no chance of realistically being enacted. Is it purely an exercise in brand positioning? In which case they are absolutely asking where the renters will go.

Is the aim to float a policy that the Tories might conceivably adopt, allowing Labour to claim victory? This is probably at the very edge of what the government can realistically be pressured into (although who even knows now).

It's a bad policy but one that would benefit renters in the short term while screwing them in the longer term unless it's attached to some serious proposals around debt relief or rent controls. Housing benefit is a flawed system as well because it inflates private rents but it's a useful tool in this particular situation - and also one that the Tories are highly unlikely to adopt.

At it stands it's an entirely vanilla policy that no one will even remember in a few years time, difficult to see it having any positive effect on anyone, including the Labour Party itself.

Most but not all of those proposals are touched upon in the Thangam Debonnaire Twitter thread here, which isn't as bad as I feared it would be. The part I take issue with is:

"For many this will be a small arrears and they will be back in work soon. For others it will be harder - hence asking govt to consider LHA increase" - we don't actually know that it will be a small arrears for most, we don't know when jobs will return, we don't know how deep or how biting or how prolonged the recession is likely to be.

The five points are here: https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/comment/comment/the-coronavirus-crisis-demands-urgent-action-to-protect-renters-this-is-labours-plan-66374

also Kier Milburn makes the point that Landlords will more likely bank these arrears whereas tenants will help stimulate economic growth by the novelty of actually having some fucking money to spend. Such a welfare state for the rich policy from mr forensic is fucking disgraceful, whether Labour policy is largely powerless right now or not it still sucks shit and it is totally depressing.

Tribune proposing the cancellation of all rent without default government compensation, no means testing and for an unspecified period of time:

https://tribunemag.co.uk/2020/05/cancel-the-rent

This is why only a cancellation of rent will do. Not a deferral or a suspension, but a total wipe of any due rent and associated debts. Huge corporate landlords can afford to take a hit and for those who can’t, they should ask the government for assistance. Means testing has a long history of unfairly targeting the working-class

What is wrong with humans? https://t.co/xZdLmRFah5

— FILMGRABBER (@filmgrabber) May 9, 2020

was lolling at the human centipede comment attached to that one earlier

the rope's marked at 2m intervals so everyone is the government-mandated "safe" distance apart.

no accounting for taste though.

there's bunting down the other end of my street, i noticed this morning but i'm not sure there was a party as such because i was inside spending a sunny bank-holiday filing my mp3s.

Not very safe when you're conga-ing into the viral load blasted out by the person in front of you! This is why I hate going out on a windy day atm, it's like that dumbfuck film The Happening where everyone runs away from a light breeze in blind panic. Who knew how prescient that scene would become?

The rope is also... a rope. And the rule isn’t “large unnecessary gatherings are fine as long as you are 2m apart”

TBH I'm amazed there's anyone other than repatriated Brits entering the country at all right now.

Friend of mine fled to Portugal when this started (irresponsible imo but she wanted to be with her family, can't judge); spent two weeks in total quarantine, and is now trying to get back into the UK because she was in the middle of getting citizenship and believes, quite justifiably, that the HO is unlikely to make allowances for a small matter such as an epidemic. She's had her flight cancelled six times so far tho.

Like 2m is what you do faute de mieux when you have to be around other people. That doesn’t mean it’s safe xp to me

The part I take issue with is:

"For many this will be a small arrears and they will be back in work soon. For others it will be harder - hence asking govt to consider LHA increase" - we don't actually know that it will be a small arrears for most, we don't know when jobs will return, we don't know how deep or how biting or how prolonged the recession is likely to be.

― Matt DC, Saturday, 9 May 2020 bookmarkflaglink

I mean this absolutely is the issue. It shows a total lack of awareness on how precarious a lot of renting actually is. This vanilla policy will need to be strengthened because Labour will have to oppose this before the next election. If they care about people that voted for them in the last election, that is.

(xp) But it was necessary to celebrate all those survivors of WW2 the Nazis didn't kill that the Tories are currently doing their best to get rid of.

Tory Jonestown pic.twitter.com/2AH3ARdQ0z

— ACAB Rees-Mogg (@jelly_pack) May 9, 2020

yeah, i'm not saying all those people aren't going to die.

the rules are ridiculous and thinking you're safe because you're paying lip service to those rules boggles my mind.

i've just been out the flat for the first time in a week. very few people out there but some of those that were were obviously not taking it as seriously, walking about like nothing was happening, builders in a huddle, blocking a pavement with a ladder.

there were conversations in the street last night at 4am as well. i can't think of a reason to be out at 4am that isn't also contravening the lockdown rules.

flytipping too, people are still dumping matresses and broken office chairs at the end of the road.

my local council put's a crime scene ribbon around the flytippers rubbish with something like "illegal dumping currently under investigation" written on it. Didn't see no CSI squad though!

I mean this absolutely is the issue. It shows a total lack of awareness on how precarious a lot of renting actually is.

I'm not sure this is really true, especially given the input from Shelter. If you click through to the thread the last post says " we are starting from a broken housing system which people are feeling real pain from and needs fixing. That needs urgent reform to private rental sector, investment in truly affordable and social housing and more".

Obviously the devil is in the details and what will matter is what they do if they ever make it into government, but there is at least an acknowledgement that the normal-times housing system is fucked. More social housing is the only thing that is actually going to solve this problem in the long run.

The real issue here is less about whether or not they understand how precarious renting is, it's whether they really appreciate quite how long the covid crisis and subsequent economic crisis are going to go on for. The "small arrears and they will be back in work soon" suggests an apparently widespread view within Westminster that we're going to be getting back to normal within the second half of this year.

The problem with the "just cancel the rent" argument is that, assuming it's legally enforceable (big if), there's nothing to stop landlords raising rents later to make up the shortfall. Rent controls might do that but good luck with that with this lot in power.

assuming it's legally enforceable

I say you can't make an omelette without running roughshod over a few landlord scumbags

If thousands of landlords are bringing legal challenges to the high Court about rent cancellation, then just simply make them illegal - taps head - I've cracked it!

Hope everyone realises that this thread will be the 21st-century equivalent to the Pepys Diaries, so make sure you're all looking your best for posterity.

Anything would be better than both main parties working in tandem to carry on as normal as much as possible when radical thinking will be needed not just minor adjustments here and there.

I have a secure middle class desk job but I would be hard pressed to essentially pay double rent for ~ 6 mos

Hope everyone realises that this thread will be the 21st-century equivalent to the Pepys Diaries, so make sure you're all looking your best for posterity.

Xp, At the same time, if you have a secure middle-class desk job, you probably don’t need to have your rent cancelled.

idk, I don’t think means-testing rent cancellation would work. The only solutions I can see would be a Ilhan Omar-style stimulus jamboree where everyone gets their rent / mortgage paid by the government for a few months, a removal of the cap on housing benefit or the government extending guaranteed incomes. Again, the question remains how sustainable any of the proposals would be if this goes on for a year, etc.

*Buries cheese wheel frantically*

Growing your first parmesan tree is always the most difficult one

SV my point was more that pretty much no one has the kind of buffer that will allow them to pay several months of rent arrears while continuing to keep up with current rent. Particularly if they have no job! (fwiw I think there are plenty of furloughed white collar workers who will be in this position once the govt tightens the taps)

No, I absolutely agree with you. The expectation that all rental arrears can be paid back is implausible for a bunch of reasons.

I’m just sceptical about how feasible blanket cancellation would be when it would cover millions of people who can currently work from home, pay their rent, etc, particularly if things are not back to something approaching normal within the next few months.

France had just decided not to quarantine arrivals from the UK---I hope (and expect) we'll now reconsider.

This is an interesting suggestion.

The govt could actually purchase the entire UK private rental market for £1.3 trillion (2018 data). In all seriousness, buying up housing stock as the market crashes to then let out is probably the simplest way to help private renters (ie de facto convert them to social renters)

— Luke Cooper (@lukecooper100) May 9, 2020

Does that include the bill to make them fit to live in?

Lower prices are a function of no buyers of course - one deep-pocketed buyer would change that.

Housing is not really a market ofc, this wld be a fantastic time to buy up all private rental properties. Doing a universal but weighted rent cut wld be a compromise option.

it's good that the politically homeless from 2015-2020 now have 3 homes to choose from, just like in reality

— LEXIT_LOVER69 (@coso9001) May 9, 2020

Hey-heeeey!