love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

Cases are rising again in Germany which is probably the clearest indication that we should not make any significant changes right now.

surely cases are going to rise at whichever point lockdown is eased? there may never be a vaccine. staying at home for the next year or two years or forever just isn't going to happen.

I just can't understand how people can't see that nothing is different to how it was at the start of March when this became very real. The virus isn't any less infectious, the PPE is still lacking, the testing isn't happening nor is the tracing, and the borders have been open the whole time. At best we'll have two weeks of cautious behaviour from everyone except reckless idiots who'll endanger themselves. Then we will be back on lockdown again because we've ran out of beds in ICU again.

We can't stay in lockdown forever but there is so much horrific stuff happening that is entirely preventable that we could manage with another few weeks of restraint.

"there may never be a vaccine."

I can't remember the Roman name given to a particular branch of probability theory where the worst case is more frequently assumed but often wrong. But given that humanity has not yet failed to produce a vaccine for such diseases within a relatively fast timescale of years rather than decades since the mid 20th century. Then I'd suggest with a bit of added hope that the odds on fav is that a vaccine will be produced within a few years, and meanwhile let's not let actively encourage a huge die-off as much as is possible is my take.

right, but i can't see how this is sustainable for a few years. it should at least be in place long enough to ensure all hospitals and care homes have much more than enough PPE but longer than that i dunno tbh.

we could manage with another few weeks of restraint.

But don't we then arrive at the same point but just in a few weeks?

within a few years

I don't want to be fatalist and say there'll never be a vaccine, because I have no idea. But a few years is a long time. Its difficult to imagine we'll be in lockdown for extended periods of time.

I don't know how much store to put in "the virus doesn't like summer", or how much that is factoring into any decisions.

I work in public health, and the message I'm getting is that there's a strong possibility there won't be a vaccine, and if there is one it won't necessarily be terribly effective and won't be ready for years, and that the focus should be more on developing effective treatments. After all, we never got a vaccine for HIV, but we did get effective treatments.

We're going to have to live with this virus for a long time, lockdowns are a short term solution, ultimately we have to start thinking about what a feasible longer term solution looks like

The only one I can see absent a lockdown is continuous test and trace; either by app or by putting checkpoints everywhere. Then regionalise lockdowns as required.

This will accelerate the drive out of London, as just one enormous side effect.

Yeah as everyone keeps saying, getting ppe and test/trace sorted is like step 0 and we aren’t even there yet

And increasing hospital capacity in a way perhaps more meaningful & efficient than “we shoved a lot of beds into an empty stadium in only eight days and then couldn’t staff it”

"Cases are rising again in Germany"

yet with a population of 81m they've kept it to approx 7500 deaths so far. I keep the word *success* being bandied about by tories and the UK media.

This will accelerate the drive out of London, as just one enormous side effect.

Every cloud...

Presumably cases have risen everywhere that has relaxed restrictions - just a question of by how much as to whether they then apply the brake again.

stay alert, control the virus, save lives

Can't help but notice we've lost the NHS part of the old triumvirate, as cynical as it was.

Multiple xps - if we hold off a few weeks then trace and test might be up and running by then

The right arm doesn't know what the left arm is doing. I suspect hardliners like Sunak - of the "OK so some old proles will die but the economy and the Tory Party are what really matter" variety - were expecting Boris to be on their side but, in the meantime, he's shat it big time and doesn't know whether he's coming or going.

he never knew this

That line of argument appears to be an attempt to sneak the herd immunity strategy in through the back door

Did that strategy ever leave? We've got a weak as fuck lockdown which has been weakened further today. We're encouraging street parties. We've normalised 500 deaths per day. We still can't get people to wear a mask or follow a fucking arrow on a floor.

I see no evidence of this being anything other than herd immunity over 3 months instead of 3 weeks with some token messaging about control measures thrown in for plausible deniability.

Appearing on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, Mr Jenrick said: "Stay alert will mean stay alert by staying home as much as possible, but stay alert when you do go out by maintaining social distancing, washing your hands, respecting others in the workplace and the other settings that you'll go to."

So stay alert means... stay home?

Oh, the settings that you'll go to.

shocked to find the marketing geniuses behind Brexit are in fact clodhoppers

This almost seems designed to remind the public and business owners as much as possible of the cack-handed entry into lockdown, with businesses 'guided' to stay open but customers 'guided' to stay out of them.

Yeah, this guy Jenrick, the Tories and their media outlets act like he's some kind of up-and-coming talent, what an indictment of UK politics.

https://i.ibb.co/b6LR9Kc/Screenshot-2020-05-10-at-13-25-43.png

Seriously, though, ffs. You look at this and you wonder what possible justification there is for easing anything right now, other than the Sun is a bit bored and sweatshop-owning Tory donors are worried about their cashflow.

Great stuff, guys!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXqEIXCWsAEOXDP?format=jpg&name=900x900

Really otm.

in the face of government's criminal neglect, we need a vehicle to coordinate & support social distancing from below. the trade unions are the obvious yet don't have the strength (or right now the creativity or guts) to act as the driving force.

— Sita Balani (@sitainshort) May 10, 2020

can't believe this was nearly the first time in my adult life where rents might have to come down, and the labour party bravely stepped in and tabled a solution to keep them high, while turning landlords into unregulated money lenders, transferring even more power to them

— tristandross (@tristandross) May 10, 2020

more hats off to Sir Kier commentary

this fucking country

Can I see my parents? Can I have my husband on the post-natal ward after baby is born? Can we ask a friend to come and babysit when I am having baby?

From the below, I have zero idea. https://t.co/dJoro1HEHk

— Clementine Wallop (@CWallop) May 10, 2020

Lots of focus on "stay home" becoming "stay alert" but not as much on the complete removal of "protect the NHS"

with doctors currently taking legal action to force an independent enquiry into the catastrophic PPE failure, probs best not mentioning the NHS at the moment.

711 more deaths in england alone today

time to open this baby up and see if we can make it to 2,000 a day

Where's that from? I'm seeing 205 deaths in the UK total.

🥳🎆🇬🇧STREET PARTY🇬🇧🎆🥳
🤪🍾🇬🇧TO HONOUR🇬🇧🍾🤪
🥰🎉🇬🇧THOSE WHO DIED🇬🇧🎉🥰
🤡🎂🇬🇧OF PREVIOUS🇬🇧🎂🤡
😂🥂🇬🇧STREET PARTY🇬🇧🥂😂

— Tom Little of "Grandstand Theme Tune" Fame (@ThisIsTomLittle) May 9, 2020

oh wait, was looking at an old email sorry

200 for the day, but that's just hospitals.

And it's a Sunday.

and a bank holiday weekend

and The Italian Job is on the telly

“It’s the self deterioration society”.

🎙️ Historian @Rog_Anderson and I deconstruct VE Day and other British wartime myths on the #JeggitPodcast. This is a really eye-opening discussion - not to be missed. https://t.co/Zr6r1ZwIVM

— Jason Michael (@Jeggit) May 10, 2020

good little discussion here about the addled exceptionalism of brit nationalists and their crazed delusional ww2 mythology. not like I learned anything new, but just nodded in agreement.

There should be no return to work until it is safe to do so.

If work cannot be done safely, it should not proceed.

People must come before private profit.

— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) May 10, 2020

miss u king

this rent biz is the most perfect faultline exposing issue

It has also exposed how there now could be 20million+ people who could make the most credible claim of "political homelessness" yet

Boris trying his best to be serious with this completely confused and befuddling prime ministerial broadcast.

He wants me to go to work tomorrow, get tae France, ya wanker.

this rent biz is the most perfect faultline exposing issue

The weird thing is that it kind of is and kind of isn’t. I’m struggling to imagine how substantial the difference in policy would have been if RLB had won or Corbyn had stayed. It’s also not unthinkable that the bulk of the Labour policy will also end up being implemented by a government with no better ideas for averting a major housing / economic crisis.

we’re gonna end up with a six-figure death toll, easily

I'm not watching but by all accounts this is a vague incomprehensible mess.