love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

Has a bullet really been dodged? For care homes this has been a disaster and I saw reports of people avoiding A & E and maybe dying at home?

In terms of hospital capacity yes, the predictions did not come true.

Letting people die at home and in care homes saved hospital capacity that could have kept them alive.
It's just a shame the bullet we dodged killed tens of thousands of people and counting.

Is that really what happened though? I would believe it; is there an analysis somewhere?

I mean - if the story is as simple as: hospital capacity was not overwhelmed because people were left to die at home.. it's too horrendous to contemplate either as deliberate policy or accidental byproduct of the strategy. Maybe I've just been blocking it out.

Lots of cancer treatment and surgical work was placed on hold so the NHS could pivot to dealing with COVID.

xxp Tracer, what in god's name are you talking about? The UK has the fifth highest deaths per capita IN THE WORLD - worse than Italy's. And it avoided filling hospital capacity by offloading cases with the virus to care homes, where it tore through the very population that all of this was supposed to for the protection of. It's been, you know, kind of a big story recently?

"Rees-Mogg’s draft plan — due to be finalized this morning — is apparently for MPs to form a kilometer-long socially distanced queue snaking out through Central Lobby and down through Westminster Hall."

What are the age profiles for the parties? I'd have thought the Tories have more to lose than gain from 'rona roulette.

The work that needs to be carried out to determine the extent and cause of excess deaths is more academic than journalistic, I think. It will take time and when it does come out it will be shut away by much of the press, too. And also it's my assumption that it will be a lot for people to take so they'd rather not see it. In the end, the press will be actually giving the public and its owners what they want, for a change.

XP - the full extent of it hasn't really been fully covered. Partly because services were overwhelmed.

What we've seen so far is a mix of reporting and work by statisticians and 'sexy' data churning from the likes of John Burn-Murdoch at the FT but clicks and needs for headlines in the news cycle drive a lot of it...to gather the data, look at the gaps and to clean up what is obscure will take time and work.

Ah, JBM, do love how he posts his dinner in the same thread as a big pile of death statistics.

The data doesn't really support "people were left to die at home" unless you're counting care homes - the home death numbers have been pretty small throughout and not enough to overwhelm hospital capacity in and of itself. We've avoided having people die in hospital corridors as in Italy, but remember that "prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed" was THE UK govt success metric at the start and probably the main reason why it disgorged patients back into care homes where it thought fewer people would notice.

We haven't dodged a bullet, it's been a disaster but there is still the sense that it could have been a lot worse. That's in large part down to lockdown measures and it could still be a lot worse - ie if this thing comes back with a vengeance in the winter.

Almost a month old but in terms of excess "at home" deaths it's a fair chunk of the total

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/08/more-people-dying-at-home-during-covid-19-pandemic-uk-analysis

Ah right I was only talking about Covid deaths specifically, the number of people who died at home for other reasons, out of fear of going to hospital, was much higher than usual.

Yeah. Here's the long-ish read I was looking for:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/28/why-did-so-many-people-die-of-covid-19-in-the-uks-care-homes

Read in a certain way, it is a simple story and AF and julio are right:

- Central government mandated 15,000 beds to be cleared from hospitals by 27 March

- The number who have died in care homes of COVID-19? 16,000

- The number who have died of it in Honk Kong? 0

brb, changing username to 'Honk Kong'

Honk if you love Kong

zero C-19 deaths in Vietnam as well.

bad news and good news

As I read this, unless you live together, it’s now unlawful to have sex with your lover indoors, but fine outdoors (subject to public decency offences); but you can have sex with an escort indoors, as that is reasonably necessary for their work purposes (see 7(d)(i)). https://t.co/QXbT1EYikt

— George Peretz QC (@GeorgePeretzQC) May 31, 2020

Don't social distancing rules still have to be followed both outdoors and in the workplace? The 2m rule would make that pretty difficult.

lawyers could have a field day with this, specifically no more than six lawyers from different practices

Wonder how long RLB will last.

1.Tonight parents of children expected to attend school tomorrow across will be agonising about the choice they are about to make. Will they be safe? Am I doing the right thing? Will their teaching staff be at risk? Will our family be at risk? Will there be a spike in the R rate? https://t.co/VChqEA2aAY

— Rebecca Long-Bailey (@RLong_Bailey) May 31, 2020

i wonder if she's deliberately pushing Starmzy on this to see how long the lol broad coalition will last

IDGI, in what way is that thread going off-message? The only thing I can see there that might give Team Starmer conniptions is the word 'abandonment'.

I think she'll last in the Shadow Cabinet unless she chooses to resign fwiw, above and beyond all else she's a team player and a pro.

Reopening schools is pretty unpopular within the country at large and will presumably become more so when parents have to negotiate the school gates and when kids start coming back with stories of what it's actually like.

I guess you need to be more forensic to see Starmer's support for teachers, my lad's teacher thinks he's weak as piss, and this is someone I always assumed was a quiet Tory or LibDem voter.

maybe the Leader of the Opposition could've said something about sending kids back to school for no reason being a bad thing, idk

he's lucky, he works at a well-funded private NAS school who won't endanger their staff and pupils at this moment and are restructuring their whole school before even thinking of fully opening it again.

"IDGI, in what way is that thread going off-message?"

No opposition from anybody else yesterday in Lab on schools (or general) re-opening/lack of cautious approach. RLB making that thread at 10.30pm last night (as noted on twitter) instead of going on the news.

I'm due back with Y10 on the 15th. I'm meeting my class on three successive Mondays, 10 kids in each session. I mostly get the impulse behind it (Y10 are probably the 'worst' affected right now, just in terms of what they've missed and a meeting with their teacher to discuss problems, misconceptions, strategies etc does have merit) but it does seem a little pointless - especially as I'm teaching all of my classes remotely anyway and they're arguably getting a better deal that way. There will be around 100 kids in school on each of those days. Even that is going to be a farce, I'm sure.

Anecdotally, I have a lot of friends for whom sending their KS2 kids back is a sanity saving measure right now. Personally, I don't think I'd be sending mine back (mine are Ys 7&9 so not even part of the equation).

I'm about to teach mine now, as it goes - one of the Language papers, with an extract from Brighton Rock. Busy beaches and gang murder you say?

Holy shit!!

https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2020/jun/01/no-pubs-no-kissing-no-flying-how-covid-19-is-forcing-authors-to-change-their-novels?

"Tom Watson, the former deputy leader of the Labour party, has been having a busy lockdown. Signed up to write a political thriller called The House, he and his co-author Imogen Robertson have been rapidly rejigging their novel to reflect a post-Covid world.

Their near-future setting now includes a national inquiry “about what’s going on in the background”, where characters – if they meet socially – “choose not to drink out of glasses and they wipe the bottle before they drink”, and undergo temperature checks when entering public buildings, “which everyone is used to by then”, says Watson, who is finding life away from politics as a newly minted thriller author “a relief”."

please god tell me there are no sex scenes

i bet the main character has an esoteric taste in music though

Ahhh can Lanchester review it for the LRB please please pleassseeeee

i know what my enemies are getting for Christmas now

wonder if watson is also finding being publicly denied a peerage because he's shit and a wanker 'a relief'

Reopening schools is pretty unpopular within the country at large and will presumably become more so when parents have to negotiate the school gates and when kids start coming back with stories of what it's actually like.

Dunt cry for me Argentina

Ian Dunt, eh? Dad's family is English, well, Irish, er British, no, Lebanese. His mum grew up in Chile, no I meant Guetalamala, no sorry, I was thinking of Belize. Dunt himself, grew up in Winchester, no sorry, Southampton, silly me, I meant Chile, Damnit, Hampshire @IanDunt pic.twitter.com/JU1Z2Otcnh

— Matthew Black (@NoirMJ) June 1, 2020

lol worra wanker!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov4epAJRPMw

my son’s primary school isn’t reopening until the 16th. apparently a lot of parents showed today with their kids in uniform - d’oh!

Nothing to see here let's get those oldies out and about

The Government has included an additional 445 deaths which had previously not been included in the daily figures which means the total number of recorded deaths is 556 higher than as was reported yesterday

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) June 1, 2020

I get breaking news alerts from Upday, an app which came pre-installed on my phone that I had never heard of before. Each day around tea-time I get the total figure in the format: "X people have died taking the total number of deaths to Y." Today for the first time since this began, they changed the format to "total number of cases of infection is now X." It's being masked and it's a fucking disgrace.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2102

England is abandoning lockdown and possibly hope of containing a second wave of covid-19. From 1 June schools will open to children other than those of key workers. Outdoor markets and car showrooms will reopen. In two weeks, it will be the turn of all non-essential retailers. This is meant to be a moment of optimism, a green recovery, centred on the health of people and the planet (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2077, doi:10.1136/bmj.m2076), backed by an effective system of testing and contact tracing and possibly informed by a public inquiry (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2052).

Instead, England arrives here in a state of utter confusion (doi:10.1136/bmj.m1785). The public’s confidence in the official lockdown advice is shaken. The covid-19 response is short on testing, uncertain on contact tracing, and reliant on unreliable apps (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2085). Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are not following England’s lead. The UK has the second highest number of covid-19 deaths of any nation and, by some calculations, the most deaths per capita.

England’s decisions seem rooted in a desire to restart the economy rather than an overabundance of science (doi:10.1136/bmj.m1847, doi:10.1136/bmj.m2045), an important aim except that it may backfire unless properly timed and with the right systems in place. Easing lockdown requires professional as well as public backing, and the decision on schools is opposed by teaching unions concerned about the lack of a proper system of test, trace and isolate.

These concerns are shared by the Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergenices (iSAGE), whose open meeting on 22 May and paper on school reopening recommend waiting until mid-June to reduce risks (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2079). The government published its own scientific advice soon after, although curiously its chosen method of reopening is not one of the nine scenarios modelled (https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/22/ministers-rejected-school-reopening-plan-recommended-by-sage-experts).

Transparency and political interference in scientific advice was controversial even before a trip to Durham by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s senior aide. It seems incredible that Dominic Cummings, who attended the government’s scientific advisory committee and plays a key role in the pandemic response, thought it reasonable to carry covid-19 from London to a region of lower infectivity and into a local hospital.

Johnson’s darkest hour, his decision to essentially prioritise Cummings over the pandemic response, had at least three immediate effects. First and foremost, it seriously damaged public trust and goodwill in complying with lockdown measures, risking a deadlier next wave of infection. Second, it belittled staff and patients who have risen to complex logistic, clinical and personal challenges while delivering care (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2043, doi:10.1136/bmj.m2055, doi:10.1136/bmj.m2062, doi:10.1136/bmj.m1987). Third, it forced the government’s scientific advisers into open dissent (doi:10.1136/bmj.m2109).

Scientists and doctors in advisory positions face a dual obligation to the state and to the public. But what happens when the government’s integrity no longer matches your personal or professional integrity, when your public accountability seems greater than that of the politicians you advise? Do you fight from within? Do you speak out, and even resign? What of the leaders of medical organisations working closely with the government? Regrettably, questions of conscience and duty must now be addressed.

In a sense, whatever the result this, this is criminal because the motivations are clearly (deliberately) uninformed, reckless, and unconcerned for the public. We shouldn't just hold them to account if the worst happens.

Three Cheers For Bozza! Can We Have Our Pubs Back Next!

Has anyone really written about the effect on retail/hospitality that is so bleedingly going to him?

If I work in a restaurant that can only let in half the customers, surely it would take (at least) half the takings and presumably half the workforce would have to quit/be made redundant/fired/furloughed? Same is true for shops that can only fit in so many customers.

A restaurant is easy to talk about, even if they come back later than shops do, because it is easy to imagine, product, what staff provide, how many customers etc. when a lot of shops on the high street provide different services, from different sources, making them a less convenient example. So in imagining the average restaurant, as an example for retail in general, if there are half the tables, half the staff to prep/serve food/drinks... you would presume there would be only half the ingredients bought. So whoever sources the food/drinks, be it farm/fishery/manufacturer would presumably have less money coming in, more waste, and less opportunity to pay staff. So more potential lay-offs. This is all working on a scenario where things go back to normal, sales wise, with just social distancing measures applied. What happens if things do not go back to a relative normal? Also, if all of those potential people lose their job, who the fuck is going to spend a weeks supermarket shop cost at one night in a restaurant?

I guess I just don’t really understand how the incredible push to get the economy back up is going to work. And not just in the smaller retail sector. A friend is a coder for a massive earning hedge fund, my brother works for an online gambling company. Both are actively trying to get out of their offices, now knowing everyone can and wants to work remotely. I know lol won’t anyone think of the landlords, but it just seems like wherever I turn my head, people and businesses, big or small, are cutting, not looking to make money or invest money, but are trying to get smaller, to find reasons why not employing or taking on risky ventures, even ones that would seemed relatively normal only a couple months back.

It all just seems so out of whack with the idea of jump starting the economy. You watch the news and there is always a new rolls royce or whoever cutting thousands of jobs, regardless of when or how quickly vulnerable can be told to get outside. Basically... idk... I just wanted to rant, none of it seems to make any bloody sense, no one seems to know what they are doing, and there doesn’t seem to be any connection between bloody millions losing their jobs and the assumption everyone has been desperately waiting to go buy some tat they don’t need from John Lewis for months, ‘rona be damned.

it doesn't make sense and I suspect that the assumption is that it will work bc in reality bc the social distancing regulations in shops will not be enforced beyond head office putting a poster up for staff to read. they are basically asking staff to do things like organise all books in a waterstones that have been handled to be kept in storage for 72 hours. I can't imagine how complicated and labour intensive that would be for the staff on minimum wage to organise, if it were me i would not feel especially incentivised to protect customers from a virus that i am exposed to daily. also what's going to be left in the shops after everyone has thumbed all the bbc tie-in copies of normal people? 'nigel havers' guide to the peak district' and 'carol vorderman: a manual for looking good and feeling great!'?

I saw someone from Kurt Geiger on Sky talking about how their plan is, if anyone tries on a pair of shoes and decides not to buy them, then they'll be "quarantining" the shoes from the shop floor for a few days and cleaning them. Which is fine for Kurt Geiger, but that's not going to work in Primark. The supermarket is a nightmare as it is - you queue to get in so there's only a certain amount of people in at a time, but are they fuck following the one-way systems or keeping out of each others way once they're inside. Staff don't care, and for a minimum wage why should they be feeling obliged to look after people who won't do anything to look after themselves?