love* in the time of plague (and by love* i mean brexit* and other dreary matters of uk politics)

This is an extraordinary poll.

Who voters think would be the best party at handling the economy:

CON: 40% (+3)
LAB: 17% (-2)
LD: 5% (-)
OTH: 3% (+1)
None: 8% (-2)

Via YouGov, 18-20 July (changes since 20-22 June)

— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) July 28, 2020

Labour only two points ahead with Remain voters on the same question.

Let's see what happens when the furlough funding ends.

Usual caveats for YouGov, etc.

unlike all the unprecedented new factors in uk politics this just feels like reversion to an age old stereotype

not just the end of furlough, let's see how badly a no deal Brexit tanks what's left of the economy

Hmm, not sure what's extraordinary about it. Sunak has largely followed through with furlough.

Lab are v quiet

Starmzy doesn't present any alternative visions for the economy just for the sake of them the financial backers that have to started to donate to Labour again since Corbyn went.

it's very odd strategy of sir starmzy to cautiously plough such a narrow path and seemingly abandon many of the very popular economic policies of Corbyn and for a style of *electability* that has him 10 pts behind in the polls and considered economically incompetent by the electorate.

If I was Starmer's director of comms I'd keep him quiet as possible as well tbf

once Roy Cropper starts talking he makes Rishi look interesting and probably fiscally less conservative than him.

Hmm, not sure what's extraordinary about it. Sunak has largely followed through with furlough.

Lab are v quiet

I would be very surprised if yr average voter knew who Anneliese Dodds was. Thinking back through the last few shadow chancellors:

- big John: instantly notorious once appointed for his views, iconic throwing the red book at George Osborne moment, constant source of stories ajout being a thug. Yet despite all that plus his frequent cuddly red jumper news appearances, he’s still only 24th most recognised Labour politician according to Yougov.

- Chris Leslie: yes he was previously acting shadow chancellor in the brief post-Miliband, pre-Corbyn period. Would even his own mother recognise him as shadow chancellor?

- Ed Balls: had a funny name, then did Strictly.

Honesty they’re barely putting her out there, in contrast with Reeves, and her announcements are barely worth quoting. People like the furlough scheme.

I reckon Stermzy has no confidence in her, tbf she's just as useless as him!

a lot of the Corbyn shadow cabinet wasn't very good and some of the duds are still there, but none of Starmer's are impressive, this isn't a government in waiting by a million miles.

Andy McDonald is pretty good and still there, but seems quite marginalised these days.

anyone that might go off piste and reveal some political principles or judgemental opinions other than "tories are bad, but I'm not going to expand on this cos we haven't got anything better" are doomed to be undermined by Reeves now.

"Which of these would make the better Chancellor of the Exchequer?"

Rishi Sunak: 44% (+4)
Anneliese Dodds: 6% (+1)

If you said "Anneliese Dodds' Dad's Dog's Dead" no-one would know who you were talking about.

OK I'll bite who is anneliese dodds pls

someone who doesn't eat or shoot but will be leaving!

The Blair Shadow Cabinet trailed the Tories on the economy even in early 1997, they just led them on every other factor. This is one of those things that nearly always favours the incumbent and usually the Tories. Labour are generally less trusted on being able to manage the economy with the exception of the period Gordon Brown was in the Treasury.

It really isn't about Annaliese Dodds at all - although she is barely making an impact even among the tiny minority of people who could name four members of the Shadow Cabinet. I would be surprised if she made it as far as the next election.

Let's see how it works furlough ends and we move from what we have now - mass unemployment in all but name - to actual mass unemployment with people getting a lot less from the state. A lot of people have barely begun to register what 'the worst recession in 300 years' is going to feel like - which is one reason why when push comes to shove I think the Tories might bottle it and extend furlough for a few more months.

exposing too many people to how fucking inhumane and punitive Universal Credit is going to damage them much more than all this Spain quarantine stuff will. Although I'm vindictive enough to say every cunt that voted for them and is now looking at an uncertain future deserves a stint on UC and I hope they fucking suffer!

Also Gyac you forgot Masked Singer Alan "I'm just off to buy a primer in economics" Johnson.

UC is still chill at the moment, no fortnightly appointments, no pressure to show your applications. fuck knows if the system could even cope if they go back to the old style with millions of extra claimants

i hasten to add it's still a pittance that you can't really live on but those new to the experience haven't been given the full treatment yet

yeah they've been cutting dwp staff and closing job centres for years now, they probably wouldn't be able to maintain the evil pre-Rona sanctions for missing an interview because you had a brain stroke regime.

I don't if he was reading from his memoir "what a wanker" but I heard Postman Alan on R4extra one night talking about his rapid rise up from ambitious union rep to PLP contender. What a vacuous self-important arsewipe, and he's sort of like a mix of Weller and Wiggins with the swagger of Gapes. He thinks he's a character in norman jewison's F.I.S.T. movie sort of deluded cunt.

Really it should be a no brainer for the Tories, you can either allow an era of basically free money to carry on doing its thing or you can commit an action that, at a stroke, is going to really fuck off millions of people who has previously been holding you in reasonably high esteem.

Also there's no sign that Johnson and Cummings are particularly arsed about deficits at all.

Also Gyac you forgot Masked Singer Alan "I'm just off to buy a primer in economics" Johnson.

yeah i thought he was home secretory

did you see what I did there!

just read, for the sake of a certain type of rockist that doesn't exist on here thankfully: Mick Jones of The Clash is Grant Shapps' first cousin and Shapps' brother Andre was a member of Big Audio Dynamite!

Yep, a good friend of mine from high school (also the cousin of a famous musician) went to a Jewish teen leadership summer camp with Grant and they wrote to one another for years afterwards, but when she moved to London and contacted him in a spirit of ‘hey, moved to the UK, fancy a catch-up?’ he basically responded with ‘new phone who dis?’ Putz.

André is a good guy, though. He’s definitely not a Tory.

Absolutely convinced I have heard Mark S drop that Big Audio Dynamite bomb before but I have no recollection of when or where.

"bombshell"

I thought everyone knew about Shappsy and Jonesy?

I probably already knew it and forgot it faster than I knew it

Why has the Guardian got Owen Jones’ piece about Wiley’s #Antisemitism - using a picture of Kano?

Can’t they tell the difference? 🤭 pic.twitter.com/92s5G7Ktcw

— Wasiq² (@WasiqUK) July 29, 2020

kano, sue the fuck out of the graun pls!

Didn't they do the same with Denise Johnson the other day?

it's a tough game when you are running a garbage clickbait farm from your shed, but is it really that hard for the high and mighty last bastion of independent investigative journalism to tell two different black pop celebs apart?

I meant to post it to the graun thread

The only thing my gf and I use the guardian site for is the weekend quiz, a few weeks ago the accompanying photo referred to a question about Eazy E, and it was... not Eazy E.

Carrying on yesterday's discussion. The first big-ish fuck up from Sunak could be that bonus scheme (people focused on tenner off at Nandos).

When there's no take-up and unemployment goes up to 10%, what then?

Extending the furlough scheme until the middle of next year could pay for itself

+ tax receipts
+ household incomes
+ consumer confidence
- unemployment payments required
- labour market scarring
- medium term unemploymenthttps://t.co/0GessBKoSe

— Rory Macqueen (@RNMacqueen) July 29, 2020

Basically extending the scheme is the next big-call. Gyac - I like McDonnell and all but every major country has borrowed quite a lot to have some sort of furlough scheme, his pressure helped but he had to do it.

This is where Lab looking shambolic, or just quiet or not looking like opposition could (and Corbyn Lab was opposition) could mean that Tories do gamble with ending furlough earlier than they should do.

when he's proposing an online sales tax that would be another shithead move that would disproportionately hit disabled people, like these cunts haven't already fucked them over enough in the last decade.

As has been proven, most of the electorate don't care about disabled people, so no loss electorally in going after them again.

I think an online sales tax would be a PR nightmare when you're still telling elderly and vulnerable people not to leave the house if they can avoid it.

This isn't really about Labour - my guess is, given the size of the gamble, that the Tories would be worried enough regardless of who was opposing them. But serious pressure to ending furlough is likely to come from austerity hawks and shire Tories on their own back benches and - in particular - senior Treasury civil servants.

Another reason why they might want to extend it is that it might help mitigate the damage if there is no Brexit deal.

They will also be conscious of not gifting Starmer with the opportunity to cast himself as the guy defending the interest of struggling businesses.

What I'm saying is if Lab don't meaningfully pressurise the government to extend furlough the Tories might not do it. But Starmer's labour have been also giving very fiscally austere vibes rn.

So if they don't extend and unemployment goes up to 10% Labour can't present themselves as a party that would do it differently.

I agree Labour should argue for extending it. By September/October though the pressure from all sides to do so might have become so deafening it'll be an easy call for even the wussiest and most cautious of oppositions. We'll find out.