Oscars 2008 Pre-game Shenanigans

all i'm saying is there have only been bloody films since the end of the 60s, and some of them have won oscars, and that's not a bad thing.

I wasn't talking good and bad. The Departed is significantly bloodier than The Godfather, and much less sentimental (and much worse).

So what does everyone think will actually win? If Atonement is there I'm still betting it'll win but if not it has to be No Country.

Atonement won't win.

The Academy's reminder list of eligible features:

http://www.oscars.org/80academyawards/reminder/reminder_titles.html

they should nut up and give it to 'zodiac' but having been released ages ago they won't.

Silence of the Lambs was released in February '91, but being a hit helped.

If Juno keeps making dough, I wouldn't be surprised if it's chosen over the bloodier (and superior) competition.

Morbs, that jacked-up bloody action epic meme came from you.

he basically only does oscar films, which i think is lame but there we have it.

Except for that Terry Gilliam movie that no one saw.

-- milo z, Wednesday, 19 December 2007 20:43 (3 weeks ago) Link

Daniel-Day Lewis has never been in a Terry Gilliam movie.

think milo means that film DDL did with his wife, dunno why.

xp: I know, EH, but they're your words and nrq is misusing my idea. I was pretty much speaking of The Departed and whatever followed (ie, I haven't seen NCfOM so I'm only guessing where it fits).

(and I plead not guilty to ever starting a fuggin' meme)

he basically only does oscar films, which i think is lame but there we have it.

I knew he didn't work much, but I didn't realize he's only been in a grand total of 8 films since My Left Foot.

why wait til Monday to forecast?

Pic: Into the Wild, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country, TWB Blood

Actor: Clooney, Day-Lewis, Depp, Hirsch, Mortensen

Actress: Blanchett, Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, Page

Sup. Actor: Affleck, Bardem, Hoffman, Holbrook, Wilkinson

Sup. Actress: Blanchett, Keener, Redgrave, Ryan, Swinton

Director: PTA, Coens, Gilroy, Penn, Schnabel

...and the rest, as Bill Murray usta say, who cares? I think Joe Wright and/or Knightley might survive the Atonement inertia, but oh well.

I doubt Blanchett will make the actress cut, even with the SAG nomination. I vote Linney.

The main reason I keep insisting that Atonement will be there and win is that a) I hated it and b) I predicted it two months ago. No logic, just stubbornness.

SO does everyone think Day-Lewis is a shoo-in for the win or is Depp a dark horse possibility?

I can't see Blanchett getting a lead actress nom.

xp

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Blanchett was put back in supporting.

no, I'm saying double nomination for Cate (Elizabeth II). they really really like Blanchett (ditto Depp and Keener).

Unless of course she gets a nod for Elizabeth: The Golden Age!

xp again

but c'mon, that was so reviled there's no way she'll get a nod for it.

oh, noooooo? Reviled enough for SAG!

Since the ballots were mailed before the Juno buzz I doubt Ellen Page is the choice to win, but I'm still having trouble with the star of a furren film about Edith Piaf (despite the Academy's love of biopics) and Julie Christie being the frontrunners.

Huh, I feel like the Juno buzz started as soon as it was released in early-to-mid December. (I saw it on Dec. 16.) Ballots weren't mailed out until Dec. 26.

uh, surely the "buzz" hasn't yet affected anyone's chance to win as long as they're nominated?

ask the makers of Atonement.

jaymc: it wasn't a major hit yet.

but I don't get that analogy; Ellen Page is widely believed to be a near-cinch nomination. Presumably the direction of the buzzshit after the 22nd will determine her chances of upsetting Cotillard and Christie. (Has anyone as young as 20 won Best Actress? Counting the seconds til jaymc's answer...)

Marlee Matlin was 21: she's the youngest.

Page will turn 21 before the ceremony but will still be a few months younger than Matlin was.

omg

And yeah, I'm with Morbs, I don't see how the date nomination ballots were sent out has anything to do Ellen Page's chances for a win.

xpost lol

Ellen Page is widely believed to be a near-cinch nominatio

No, guys, I'm talking about a WIN, not the nod, as I wrote here:

Since the ballots were mailed before the Juno buzz I doubt Ellen Page is the choice to win

Seems like kind of an up-to-the-minute thing to me though - like Murphy apparently getting fucked over last year thanks to Norbit, which didn't come out until, what, February?

So what ballots are you talking about, Alfred?

since the AWARD ballots aren't going out for a week or more yet, "before the Juno buzz" ain't relevant.

yeah, that part I didn't know. I should hang out with gabbneb to learn how balloting works.

I mean, I don't know the exact date that award ballots get sent out, but I assume they can't be sent out until it's determined who's on them.

This forecaster brings the goods, and joins the echo chamber of non-rockist critics of I'm Not There as "insufferably academic." Kids today!

man i *wish* academia involved that much awesomeness.

Well, that bit was basically from Ed's mouth to my blog entry. I trust his take.

fooey!

(I wondered why you were writing in the royal "we")

Yeah, and all the "should be nominateds" are Ed's too. Though I would've shortlisted Hal Holbrook and Vanessa Redgrave too, obv.

boy, you HAVE stopped going to movies.

I thought Anna Paquin won BA for The Piano

-- wanko ergo sum, Friday, January 18, 2008 1:05 AM (17 hours ago) Bookmark Link

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i think it was best supporting actress

-- Rubyredd, Friday, January 18, 2008 1:08 AM (17 hours ago) Bookmark Link

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And anyway, the youngest in that category is Tatum O'Neal for 'Paper Moon'.

-- Michael White, Friday, January 18, 2008 6:35 PM (7 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

jaymc, do the math!

Another reason why it's dumb that I'm banned from the Noise Board.

O'Neal (10) and Paquin (11) were both nominated and won for Best Supporting Actress.

Justin Henry (8) was nominated but didn't win for Best Supporting Actor.

As far as the Best Actress category, Ellen Page won't be the youngest nominated. That was Keisha Castle-Hughes, for Whale Rider, a couple of years ago. She was 13.

This is amazingly comprehensive: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_and_youngest_Academy_Award_winners_and_nominees

(I mentioned Justin Henry just because he's the youngest person to be nominated for any kind of Academy Award, besides those kiddie awards they gave to Shirley Temple and Mickey Rooney in the '30s.)

are you kids still at it?