GET OUT: US politics November 2020

i am also prob reacting to the fact that the current discourse online resembles doomsday prep

I also think turnout is going to be insane on Election Day, as opposed to the (reasonable) theory that it'll be below-average because people are voting early due to COVID-19.

Per Trump, really, who the fuck cares what he says? He called the 2018 election a red wave iirc both before *and after* it happened. This is a moron who complained about vote fraud *after he won.* All he is is (unpleasant) white noise, like non-stop planes taking off.

Do we have an Election Panic thread so we can keep this one a bit less manic?

― Fuck the NRA (ulysses),

i think it makes sense to keep it here.

if/when there are 10,000 posts by Nov 4, we can do a part 2

Turnout estimates, FWIW, are definitely trending upward. Last week guesses were hovering at an average of a little over 150 million. I've now seen a few more that are shifting it to 160, possibly even higher. (170 was one claim, which, amazing if it happened.)

xp i'm taking the under there

its a different kind of anxiety this time around

4 years ago we all knew a Trump victory was gonna be horrible but idk if we really envisioned how bad things would get, like I don't think "he'll massively fuck up a pandemic which might prevent us all from seeing our family and friends for 2 years" was on anyone's Bingo card

this time if he wins we kinda know exactly what the stakes are - we're out of the Paris Accord, we're done with the WHO, we won't try to stop the virus (and likely are just gonna settle for 3 million dead Americans), and with a 6-3 SC majority & hundreds of Trump judges we may never get another free & fair election again. I think if Trump wins the country is basically done for. I thought America could survive 4 years, I don't think it can survive 8

on the other hand, there are just so many signs that Republicans are about to get wiped off the map, which you didn't have in 2016. I get that the cultists are firmly in his corner but he's gonna need way more than that, and if 2016 non-voters/undecideds/independents are seriously looking at the last 4 years and thinking "yes, 4 more years of this" then America is not worth saving

Speaking of what Trump says and how he says it, I'm beginning to think, if things go Biden's way tomorrow, that it was the first debate that really firmed things up. Biden showed he was competent and coherent, not the babbling old person they tried to paint him as, and Trump turned his asshole level up to 11 and went Full Trump, which no one wanted to see.

i think it makes sense to keep it here.

if/when there are 10,000 posts by Nov 4, we can do a part 2

― just another 3-pinnochio post by (Karl Malone), Monday, 2 November 2020 16:54 (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'm not wishing the usa luck again just fyi

xp i'm taking the under there

― Fuck the NRA (ulysses)

in the spirit of our current time, i don't use exact numbers anymore. if it's more than i can count on my finger and toes, it's at least "10,000". either that or 0. could be fake! either way, feel free to translate my numeric values to whatever system you're using

imago...you have to

YOU HAVE TO WISH US LUCK!

the 2016 election was trauma, it's not surprising are processing it like a trauma which often doesn't manifest in rational ways

like i would love to work on myself and get better at processing emotions and anxiety

don't really think that's happening in the next 48 hours, you just make it worse for yourself for feeling guilty about whatever way you are processing or coping

i did, on this thread, but if u start another thread the spell will be broken and the usa will have bad luck. send this to 7 friends

Speaking of what Trump says and how he says it, I'm beginning to think, if things go Biden's way tomorrow, that it was the first debate that really firmed things up. Biden showed he was competent and coherent, not the babbling old person they tried to paint him as, and Trump turned his asshole level up to 11 and went Full Trump, which no one wanted to see.

― Josh in Chicago

and something happened to Trump two days after the debate

Texas, Pennsylvania:
Biden is against Second Amendment and Fracking. Please remember!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 2, 2020

don't think I've ever seen a Republican try to shore up TEXAS on election eve

Please remember! vs please clap

i do think the constant trump (and left) assertions that biden was basically an alzheimer's patient created an incredibly low bar for him, he just had to show up and say some stuff and make sense

Do we have an Election Panic thread so we can keep this one a bit less manic?
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses)

@ulysses
rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread
― it bangs for thee (Simon H.)

That's a Greil Marcus thread now. Long story.

Texas, Pennsylvania...is that part of Pennsyltucky?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F69tcpIa4Xk

ums otm, my frequent angst about the internet being one gigantic traumatized grieving brain is probably not going to penetrate in the next say 48 hours

People who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden ("double haters")

Wisconsin
Biden: 62%
Trump: 11%

Iowa
Biden: 67%
Trump: 7%

Ohio
Biden: 62%
Trump: 13%

— Drew Linzer (@DrewLinzer) November 2, 2020

I honestly do not see how Trump can even make this close. these numbers are fucking AWFUL for him. he won this group 2:1 in 2016. and yes, there's only half as many this time around but only because Biden is significantly more well-liked than Clinton.

Do we have an Election Panic thread so we can keep this one a bit less manic?
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses)

@ulysses
rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread
― it bangs for thee (Simon H.)

That's a Greil Marcus thread now. Long story.

― clemenza, Monday, November 2, 2020 11:02 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I Will Wait 'Til it All Goes 'Round: Richard Manuel's Vanished America and the Shy Trump Voter

WTF is with the 'just don't be anxious, sheesh!' responses to expressions of anxiety itt this morning

i think y'all are misreading me. i am anxious

i am currently not looking for more reasons to feel anxious, and am trying to stem the tide

it's all good

I think I might take up pica or something for the next 24 hours

Have now heard of three private polls - from both parties - that have Trump up 1 or tied in FL-15

That’s heavily Polk Co. @adamputnam country.

Trump won it by 10 in 2016.

Surveys a couple weeks ago.

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) November 2, 2020

if this is true Trump's done in Florida

I just got to the party.

I think it is necessary to take Trump at his word when he says things like 'when you get rid of the ballots there is no transition of power' and 'I'll accept the results, if I win'. These are not bluffs, in that they reflect his real thoughts, desires, and intentions.

otoh, having thoughts, desires and intentions does not equate to the ability to make these into accomplished facts. Elections take place in fifty states and thousands of counties, handling tens of millions of votes. This scope of operations effectively ensures the only election you can steal is a very close one.

While theoretically it could all come down to PA, in reality Trump would have to run the table of close states again, as he did in 2016, while many states that were close in 2016 aren't very close today. This time he's having to shore up states like TX and GA that were firmly in his column last time. And now he's not running against Hilary, who had the second highest negatives of any modern candidate (just behind Trump).

What's more likely in my mind is Trump whipping up anger among his supporters and creating as much chaos as he can, in the hope that he can somehow leverage chaos in his favor. If nothing else, as a bargaining chip in his seeking not to be prosecuted and sent to jail.

In Texas, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied.

- Biden 48.1%
- Trump 48.1%https://t.co/jLPH4hTBgX pic.twitter.com/kwp9XJMM7M

— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) November 2, 2020

again - unless this is massively off.....

maybe you win Texas, but you don't win re-election as a Republican going from +9 in Texas to +0

A little illustration of unperson's point re not all the anti-Trump votes being in -- using California as a 'safe' state as an example, shall we say, to prevent anxiety spike. If you look at the Elections Project total:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/CA.html

You'll see that 22 million ballots went out and only 11 million have been returned so far. This year California mailed out a ballot to every registered voter in response to COVID, the first time it's ever done that. There were GOP gripes -- Darrell Issa and cronies tried to fight it -- but it went nowhere after various court decisions and things are progressing as they would. Since this IS the first time, it's safe to assume that not every ballot will be returned -- simply because not everyone ever in the state among registered voters has actually voted! IIRC in state history the highest has been something in the 80s percentage range. So even with this fuller/easier access, we'll have to see how far it goes.

In terms of comparative percentages, the early vote has now reached 76 percent of 2016 -- a good turnout, certainly, but also somewhat unlikely that 100% will be reached by tomorrow. By default there's a lot of people who will be voting on the day. A number of those people will be GOP types thinking "Only me voting on the day itself counts!" They can think that. But breaking down the return rate percentages shows that while there's a Democratic lead in the returned ballots, by no means has every registered Democrat voted, and the second highest 'party' in the state consists of people like me without a party affiliation (or who belong to minor parties) still hasn't broken 50%. And -- apologies to caek but this is just to illustrate rather than to claim definitively -- IF somehow every reigstered GOP voter voted here and they presumably all voted for Trump (which, trust me, no), even then, again assuming absolute uniformity, the current returned Democratic total tops that, while the NPA group breaks Biden. Point is, there are still more Democratic votes to come, and they won't all be by mail.

Different states, different situations, fully understood. Just something to keep in mind.

This is one hell of a Twitter thread re that stupid-ass Nebraska story they ran this morning:

oh New York times you got taken for a ride honey pic.twitter.com/Rpcx6bKIzk

— Dr Sarah Taber (@SarahTaber_bww) November 2, 2020

yeah i guess i don't know shit but i fall back to if early voting wasn't beneficial to democrats the GOP wouldn't be trying so hard to stop it

when I rallied last weekend, an older black woman was telling a Karen type: "We don't vote by mail. We just show up."

Final 2020 @MorningConsult polls:

Biden leads Trump 51.9% - 43.9%

AZ: Biden +2
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +2
MI: Biden +7
MN: Biden +9
NC: Biden +1
Ohio: Trump +3
PA: Biden +9
TX: Tie
WI: Biden +13https://t.co/qo7rflgzxt pic.twitter.com/94UZY5NFtp

— Rick Newman (@rickjnewman) November 2, 2020

Early voting/expansion of the process is absolutely welcome and does help the Democrats in general, and the GOP absolutely would love it if it was only their own dedicated come-rain-come-shine types who had the advantage. But as Alfred just noted, and there's studies and studies and more showing this, not everyone will vote using that process.

The Ohio Secretary of State (R) was asked point blank about Trump wanting all ballots counted by Tuesday night, and he retorted, “That’s not how elections work.” Watching more of the Republican electeds outside the Beltway turn on Trump is really fun, and I hope it sticks.

— Lucy Caldwell (@lucymcaldwell) November 2, 2020

Anyway, incremental for the day but I might as well do running updates on the early vote here for election eve -- we are now at 96 million.

People who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden ("double haters")

Wisconsin
Biden: 62%
Trump: 11%

Iowa
Biden: 67%
Trump: 7%

Ohio
Biden: 62%
Trump: 13%

That is the most reassuring thing I have seen in the last six months.

I couldn't find the state-by-state numbers for 2016, but final national numbers for 2016 appeared to be 30% Hillary and 47% Trump, which is just a massive, massive swing.

Like from Trump +17 to -19 is crazy.

massively fucking up a pandemic will do that

apologies if this has already been posted

Longtime GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg and former Texas House Speaker filed an amicus opposing a GOP suit to toss 127K drive-thru ballots in Texas, arguing it violates federal law.

Concludes by noting this is same argument Ginsberg and Amy Coney Barrett used in 2000 recount pic.twitter.com/ANDRe6Vsy0

— Jane C. Timm (@janestreet) November 2, 2020

xpost yeah, crazy if not for Trump, whose greatest attribute is being an asshole.

I don't think the group that hated both in 2016 is at all the same people that it is now

OPINION
Biden will win Nevada, blue wave should help down ballot
By @RalstonReports https://t.co/ZKJKiD3KZ9

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) November 2, 2020

Illinois, one of the few states always guaranteed to go blue, has had early voting for a couple of weeks, and last I heard had around 50% of 2016's turn out so far.

I wonder if we've ever actually had a presidential election where all votes were counted on election night? Certainly not for most of our history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CNOHp46ios