GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Do we have an Election Panic thread so we can keep this one a bit less manic?
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses)

@ulysses
rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread
― it bangs for thee (Simon H.)

That's a Greil Marcus thread now. Long story.

― clemenza, Monday, November 2, 2020 11:02 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I Will Wait 'Til it All Goes 'Round: Richard Manuel's Vanished America and the Shy Trump Voter

WTF is with the 'just don't be anxious, sheesh!' responses to expressions of anxiety itt this morning

i think y'all are misreading me. i am anxious

i am currently not looking for more reasons to feel anxious, and am trying to stem the tide

it's all good

I think I might take up pica or something for the next 24 hours

Have now heard of three private polls - from both parties - that have Trump up 1 or tied in FL-15

That’s heavily Polk Co. @adamputnam country.

Trump won it by 10 in 2016.

Surveys a couple weeks ago.

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) November 2, 2020

if this is true Trump's done in Florida

I just got to the party.

I think it is necessary to take Trump at his word when he says things like 'when you get rid of the ballots there is no transition of power' and 'I'll accept the results, if I win'. These are not bluffs, in that they reflect his real thoughts, desires, and intentions.

otoh, having thoughts, desires and intentions does not equate to the ability to make these into accomplished facts. Elections take place in fifty states and thousands of counties, handling tens of millions of votes. This scope of operations effectively ensures the only election you can steal is a very close one.

While theoretically it could all come down to PA, in reality Trump would have to run the table of close states again, as he did in 2016, while many states that were close in 2016 aren't very close today. This time he's having to shore up states like TX and GA that were firmly in his column last time. And now he's not running against Hilary, who had the second highest negatives of any modern candidate (just behind Trump).

What's more likely in my mind is Trump whipping up anger among his supporters and creating as much chaos as he can, in the hope that he can somehow leverage chaos in his favor. If nothing else, as a bargaining chip in his seeking not to be prosecuted and sent to jail.

In Texas, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied.

- Biden 48.1%
- Trump 48.1%https://t.co/jLPH4hTBgX pic.twitter.com/kwp9XJMM7M

— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) November 2, 2020

again - unless this is massively off.....

maybe you win Texas, but you don't win re-election as a Republican going from +9 in Texas to +0

A little illustration of unperson's point re not all the anti-Trump votes being in -- using California as a 'safe' state as an example, shall we say, to prevent anxiety spike. If you look at the Elections Project total:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/CA.html

You'll see that 22 million ballots went out and only 11 million have been returned so far. This year California mailed out a ballot to every registered voter in response to COVID, the first time it's ever done that. There were GOP gripes -- Darrell Issa and cronies tried to fight it -- but it went nowhere after various court decisions and things are progressing as they would. Since this IS the first time, it's safe to assume that not every ballot will be returned -- simply because not everyone ever in the state among registered voters has actually voted! IIRC in state history the highest has been something in the 80s percentage range. So even with this fuller/easier access, we'll have to see how far it goes.

In terms of comparative percentages, the early vote has now reached 76 percent of 2016 -- a good turnout, certainly, but also somewhat unlikely that 100% will be reached by tomorrow. By default there's a lot of people who will be voting on the day. A number of those people will be GOP types thinking "Only me voting on the day itself counts!" They can think that. But breaking down the return rate percentages shows that while there's a Democratic lead in the returned ballots, by no means has every registered Democrat voted, and the second highest 'party' in the state consists of people like me without a party affiliation (or who belong to minor parties) still hasn't broken 50%. And -- apologies to caek but this is just to illustrate rather than to claim definitively -- IF somehow every reigstered GOP voter voted here and they presumably all voted for Trump (which, trust me, no), even then, again assuming absolute uniformity, the current returned Democratic total tops that, while the NPA group breaks Biden. Point is, there are still more Democratic votes to come, and they won't all be by mail.

Different states, different situations, fully understood. Just something to keep in mind.

This is one hell of a Twitter thread re that stupid-ass Nebraska story they ran this morning:

oh New York times you got taken for a ride honey pic.twitter.com/Rpcx6bKIzk

— Dr Sarah Taber (@SarahTaber_bww) November 2, 2020

yeah i guess i don't know shit but i fall back to if early voting wasn't beneficial to democrats the GOP wouldn't be trying so hard to stop it

when I rallied last weekend, an older black woman was telling a Karen type: "We don't vote by mail. We just show up."

Final 2020 @MorningConsult polls:

Biden leads Trump 51.9% - 43.9%

AZ: Biden +2
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +2
MI: Biden +7
MN: Biden +9
NC: Biden +1
Ohio: Trump +3
PA: Biden +9
TX: Tie
WI: Biden +13https://t.co/qo7rflgzxt pic.twitter.com/94UZY5NFtp

— Rick Newman (@rickjnewman) November 2, 2020

Early voting/expansion of the process is absolutely welcome and does help the Democrats in general, and the GOP absolutely would love it if it was only their own dedicated come-rain-come-shine types who had the advantage. But as Alfred just noted, and there's studies and studies and more showing this, not everyone will vote using that process.

The Ohio Secretary of State (R) was asked point blank about Trump wanting all ballots counted by Tuesday night, and he retorted, “That’s not how elections work.” Watching more of the Republican electeds outside the Beltway turn on Trump is really fun, and I hope it sticks.

— Lucy Caldwell (@lucymcaldwell) November 2, 2020

Anyway, incremental for the day but I might as well do running updates on the early vote here for election eve -- we are now at 96 million.

People who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden ("double haters")

Wisconsin
Biden: 62%
Trump: 11%

Iowa
Biden: 67%
Trump: 7%

Ohio
Biden: 62%
Trump: 13%

That is the most reassuring thing I have seen in the last six months.

I couldn't find the state-by-state numbers for 2016, but final national numbers for 2016 appeared to be 30% Hillary and 47% Trump, which is just a massive, massive swing.

Like from Trump +17 to -19 is crazy.

massively fucking up a pandemic will do that

apologies if this has already been posted

Longtime GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg and former Texas House Speaker filed an amicus opposing a GOP suit to toss 127K drive-thru ballots in Texas, arguing it violates federal law.

Concludes by noting this is same argument Ginsberg and Amy Coney Barrett used in 2000 recount pic.twitter.com/ANDRe6Vsy0

— Jane C. Timm (@janestreet) November 2, 2020

xpost yeah, crazy if not for Trump, whose greatest attribute is being an asshole.

I don't think the group that hated both in 2016 is at all the same people that it is now

OPINION
Biden will win Nevada, blue wave should help down ballot
By @RalstonReports https://t.co/ZKJKiD3KZ9

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) November 2, 2020

Illinois, one of the few states always guaranteed to go blue, has had early voting for a couple of weeks, and last I heard had around 50% of 2016's turn out so far.

I wonder if we've ever actually had a presidential election where all votes were counted on election night? Certainly not for most of our history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CNOHp46ios

I don't think the group that hated both in 2016 is at all the same people that it is now

― Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Monday, November 2, 2020 12:44 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is fair speculation, It is also probably fair to say they are snapshots of which way people that are fed up with politics and might not normally vote will be breaking.

A solid story on my congressional district.

Meanwhile, kinda like the Texas case today there was a similar stupidity in Nevada, which just got destroyed:

Judge rejects Trump campaign effort to slow down, amend Clark County mail ballot counting and processing system https://t.co/MsnvHl7lhb

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) November 2, 2020

This order is an utter evisceration of the GOP's attempt at voter suppression and exposes the lack of evidence on every claim.

An appeal to the state Supreme Court is a fool's errand, and since the NV GOP is a ship of fools... https://t.co/khhVhM2dqx

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 2, 2020

Judge was probably elected, and therefore biased toward Democracy. Not fair!

So, I finally called the Chicago Board of Elections yesterday about the fact that the mail-in ballot that I put in a drop box two weeks ago still hadn't been registered in the system as accepted. They suggested that I vote in person and sign an affidavit to cancel the mail-in ballot if it ever turns up. So I stood in line at an early voting site this morning and did that, and now I at least have the peace of mind of knowing that I did my part.

This is Trump's real impeachment trial. The US Senate fucked it up the last time.

I mean that's literally what Nancy and everyone else who kneecapped the investigation last time said

which is gonna make it all the more infuriating if Biden wins by 5 but still loses the EC

then we would DEFINITELY have to start planning on thinking of opening up more serious questions related to the exploration of reimagining the election system in this country

One man, one vote. (I am the man in question.)

but now is not the right time. August 2021 has been designated as the one month that would be the best fit for discussion election reform, in the following term. let's not push it into September 2021 either, because obviously the FY will be coming up and some things have to take priority

a nation puts its voting trust into one man, ned raggett.

LEGALIZE IT NED!

here's my election night plan for unclenching.

these are the states that might declare on the night in order of how much a biden win would make me unclench.

if trump sweeps all five of these then a legal fight in PA (if not actual violence) seems likely and i will thus remain clenched.

TEXAS
miiiiight declare on election night
a long shot obviously, but worth so many EVs that it's pretty much a done deal if it goes biden

FLORIDA
will probably declare on election night, probably first among these states
toss up. if it goes biden it's basically over AFAICT

OHIO
miiiiight declare on election night
bit of a long shot for biden, worth a decent number of EVs, but the main thing is that if it goes biden it's a very strong sign that PA should be OK
see https://newrepublic.com/article/160022/ohio-state-watch-election-night

NORTH CAROLINA
will probably declare on election night
basically the same deal as ohio

ARIZONA
will probably declare on election night
if biden wins this and there are not 10+ point surprises in WI and MI (or anywhere else) then it's over in principle (but this happening, biden winning WI and MI and the single votes in maine and nebraska, and trump winning everything else he won in 2016 gives biden a 1-2 vote win in the EC, so the possibility of legal shenanigans etc. would make me a little nervous to unclench on this alone).

I'll relax tomorrow night if Biden takes any two of those states (and I'd add Georgia to the list)

Biden's PA barnstorm today includes stops in all three counties that swung from Obama to Trump in 2016: Erie, Luzerne and Northampton.

— Julia Terruso (@JuliaTerruso) November 2, 2020

xp georgia won't declare on the night, but definitely.

Early vote to 96.5 million -- we are now at 70% of the entire voting turnout of 2016.

I voted (in PA) so many weeks ago, I kinda feel like I should get to do it again

lol

This cracks me up: Crystal Ball lists FL as R and their reason is explicitly the same as nervous D's and contains the caveat they've been wrong four cycles in a row (!!!!) https://t.co/uWPeluTG9k pic.twitter.com/PB5sVRqaqq

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) November 2, 2020

Crystal Ball with the emotional hedge!

also this made me smile:

No. https://t.co/3UaNxY1DSs

— Harris County Clerk (@HarrisVotes) November 2, 2020

Hey Trump just promised to fire Fauci. That seems important, insane, unsurprising, newsworthy, scary, and bad politics.

— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) November 2, 2020