GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Early voting/expansion of the process is absolutely welcome and does help the Democrats in general, and the GOP absolutely would love it if it was only their own dedicated come-rain-come-shine types who had the advantage. But as Alfred just noted, and there's studies and studies and more showing this, not everyone will vote using that process.

The Ohio Secretary of State (R) was asked point blank about Trump wanting all ballots counted by Tuesday night, and he retorted, “That’s not how elections work.” Watching more of the Republican electeds outside the Beltway turn on Trump is really fun, and I hope it sticks.

— Lucy Caldwell (@lucymcaldwell) November 2, 2020

Anyway, incremental for the day but I might as well do running updates on the early vote here for election eve -- we are now at 96 million.

People who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden ("double haters")

Wisconsin
Biden: 62%
Trump: 11%

Iowa
Biden: 67%
Trump: 7%

Ohio
Biden: 62%
Trump: 13%

That is the most reassuring thing I have seen in the last six months.

I couldn't find the state-by-state numbers for 2016, but final national numbers for 2016 appeared to be 30% Hillary and 47% Trump, which is just a massive, massive swing.

Like from Trump +17 to -19 is crazy.

massively fucking up a pandemic will do that

apologies if this has already been posted

Longtime GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg and former Texas House Speaker filed an amicus opposing a GOP suit to toss 127K drive-thru ballots in Texas, arguing it violates federal law.

Concludes by noting this is same argument Ginsberg and Amy Coney Barrett used in 2000 recount pic.twitter.com/ANDRe6Vsy0

— Jane C. Timm (@janestreet) November 2, 2020

xpost yeah, crazy if not for Trump, whose greatest attribute is being an asshole.

I don't think the group that hated both in 2016 is at all the same people that it is now

OPINION
Biden will win Nevada, blue wave should help down ballot
By @RalstonReports https://t.co/ZKJKiD3KZ9

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) November 2, 2020

Illinois, one of the few states always guaranteed to go blue, has had early voting for a couple of weeks, and last I heard had around 50% of 2016's turn out so far.

I wonder if we've ever actually had a presidential election where all votes were counted on election night? Certainly not for most of our history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CNOHp46ios

I don't think the group that hated both in 2016 is at all the same people that it is now

― Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Monday, November 2, 2020 12:44 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is fair speculation, It is also probably fair to say they are snapshots of which way people that are fed up with politics and might not normally vote will be breaking.

A solid story on my congressional district.

Meanwhile, kinda like the Texas case today there was a similar stupidity in Nevada, which just got destroyed:

Judge rejects Trump campaign effort to slow down, amend Clark County mail ballot counting and processing system https://t.co/MsnvHl7lhb

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) November 2, 2020

This order is an utter evisceration of the GOP's attempt at voter suppression and exposes the lack of evidence on every claim.

An appeal to the state Supreme Court is a fool's errand, and since the NV GOP is a ship of fools... https://t.co/khhVhM2dqx

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 2, 2020

Judge was probably elected, and therefore biased toward Democracy. Not fair!

So, I finally called the Chicago Board of Elections yesterday about the fact that the mail-in ballot that I put in a drop box two weeks ago still hadn't been registered in the system as accepted. They suggested that I vote in person and sign an affidavit to cancel the mail-in ballot if it ever turns up. So I stood in line at an early voting site this morning and did that, and now I at least have the peace of mind of knowing that I did my part.

This is Trump's real impeachment trial. The US Senate fucked it up the last time.

I mean that's literally what Nancy and everyone else who kneecapped the investigation last time said

which is gonna make it all the more infuriating if Biden wins by 5 but still loses the EC

then we would DEFINITELY have to start planning on thinking of opening up more serious questions related to the exploration of reimagining the election system in this country

One man, one vote. (I am the man in question.)

but now is not the right time. August 2021 has been designated as the one month that would be the best fit for discussion election reform, in the following term. let's not push it into September 2021 either, because obviously the FY will be coming up and some things have to take priority

a nation puts its voting trust into one man, ned raggett.

LEGALIZE IT NED!

here's my election night plan for unclenching.

these are the states that might declare on the night in order of how much a biden win would make me unclench.

if trump sweeps all five of these then a legal fight in PA (if not actual violence) seems likely and i will thus remain clenched.

TEXAS
miiiiight declare on election night
a long shot obviously, but worth so many EVs that it's pretty much a done deal if it goes biden

FLORIDA
will probably declare on election night, probably first among these states
toss up. if it goes biden it's basically over AFAICT

OHIO
miiiiight declare on election night
bit of a long shot for biden, worth a decent number of EVs, but the main thing is that if it goes biden it's a very strong sign that PA should be OK
see https://newrepublic.com/article/160022/ohio-state-watch-election-night

NORTH CAROLINA
will probably declare on election night
basically the same deal as ohio

ARIZONA
will probably declare on election night
if biden wins this and there are not 10+ point surprises in WI and MI (or anywhere else) then it's over in principle (but this happening, biden winning WI and MI and the single votes in maine and nebraska, and trump winning everything else he won in 2016 gives biden a 1-2 vote win in the EC, so the possibility of legal shenanigans etc. would make me a little nervous to unclench on this alone).

I'll relax tomorrow night if Biden takes any two of those states (and I'd add Georgia to the list)

Biden's PA barnstorm today includes stops in all three counties that swung from Obama to Trump in 2016: Erie, Luzerne and Northampton.

— Julia Terruso (@JuliaTerruso) November 2, 2020

xp georgia won't declare on the night, but definitely.

Early vote to 96.5 million -- we are now at 70% of the entire voting turnout of 2016.

I voted (in PA) so many weeks ago, I kinda feel like I should get to do it again

lol

This cracks me up: Crystal Ball lists FL as R and their reason is explicitly the same as nervous D's and contains the caveat they've been wrong four cycles in a row (!!!!) https://t.co/uWPeluTG9k pic.twitter.com/PB5sVRqaqq

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) November 2, 2020

Crystal Ball with the emotional hedge!

also this made me smile:

No. https://t.co/3UaNxY1DSs

— Harris County Clerk (@HarrisVotes) November 2, 2020

Hey Trump just promised to fire Fauci. That seems important, insane, unsurprising, newsworthy, scary, and bad politics.

— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) November 2, 2020

Even if President Trump finds himself awarded the same fate as impeached President Richard Nixon — that is to say, either not charged with or pardoned of any hypothetical federal crimes — there’s no chance he will slink away from public life.

And the reason is two-fold: First he probably won’t be legally allowed to. He or his predecessor could pardon him of any federal charges lobbed against him post-presidency. But he has no control over the outcome of various state investigations into his business — most notably the one by Cyrus Vance in New York, looking into his businesses.

But, secondly, like any addict, Trump’s cravings for attention will not be easily satiated post-presidency by the mere fame and fortune that being a former leader of the free world brings. A new article in the New Yorker spells out just how dependent President Trump has become on his throngs of fans for personal fulfillment, incapable of returning to the life of a real estate mogul or a has-been celebrity that evokes little adoration or interest outside the realm of reality TV.

From the New Yorker’s Jane Mayer:

"Last winter, a Cabinet secretary told me Trump had confided that he couldn’t imagine returning to his former life as a real-estate developer. As the Cabinet secretary recalled, the two men were gliding along in a motorcade, surrounded by throngs of adoring supporters, when Trump remarked, “Isn’t this incredible? After this, I could never return to ordering windows. It would be so boring.”

President Trump apparently has his sights set on remaining relevant to his base, even if that base of supporters no longer has a leader to devote themselves to. As morbid as it may seem, President Trump is, according to Mayer’s reporting, interested in taking over Rush Limbaugh’s radio show if the longtime feverish conservative commentator passes away (he has stage four lung cancer). Trump awarded Limbaugh the Presidential Medal of Freedom in January, during a made-for-reality-TV State of the Union address

don't expect a slinking return to irrelevance

wasn't expecting it, tbh, but good to know

trump taking over for rush would kind of be perfect though

give him the same $50M+/yr salary! that will be the most consistently profitable trump enterprise he's ever been involved with

and as a bonus, much of his fanbase is reduced to screaming in their cars

He or his predecessor could pardon him of any federal charges lobbed against him post-presidency.

Uh, do u maybe mean 'successor' TPM? Or is Trump gonna have to start kissing some major Obama ass?

omg taking over for Rush would be perfect for that guy. I mean, I would prefer he died, but still, by all means, lock the guy in a bunker and let me ignore him for the rest of his life as I've ignored Rush Limbaugh.

i hate it just because it's a really solid financial life preserver for him, i want him to die in poverty

RW media is incredibly well funded by billionaire chuds, so that seems highly unlikely to ever happen.

If the reporting is correct, Trump has $900 million in debt falling due in the next four years.

really hard for a guy with 30-40 million rabid fans to not find a way to make money off them

let me ignore him for the rest of his life as I've ignored Rush Limbaugh.

exactly. i mean, i hate rush limbaugh with a burning passion, and i was so happy when i learned he was getting closer to dying, at some point i think i just told myself he was dead. so i had to check wikipedia just now to check. still alive - for now. anyway, i hate his fucking guts, but that's for personal reasons, not because i actually have to listen to him or see him that often, if ever. somehow he is widely heard and emulated and respected by the worst people, influential in his own way, but his toxic bullshit is bottled up inside cars and the headphones of that one guy in the office who fucking sucks. for trump to stuff himself into that same bottle would be so satisfying

xp, you'd think, but he lost money running a casino

NYS charges seem to be the most likely knife; this headline piece in the New Yorker covers most of the post-election permutations and should be non-registration accessible?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/09/why-trump-cant-afford-to-lose

Early vote at 97 million.