EZRA KLEIN v MATT YGLESIAS

Sorry, second graph was meant to be
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2019-12-17/How%20Britain%20voted%202019%20age%20and%20gender-01.png

xps- not saying he is. he's kinda an incoherent mix of right wing/anti-pc, libertarian, left, but imho it washes out as MOR centrist in 2021. and tonnes of young dudes listen to it

I’m also questioning whether you actually know/are friends with any people in their twenties?

i am in my twenties lol

The people I know who are,

that's kinda my point tho. the people you and i know in their twenties aren't necessarily representative. there are a lot of young people with normal opinions. the shift left is def real but it's a shift. you can see that in those polls you show, too. you also just gave a stat showing that the average age of joe rogan listeners was 24

Why wouldn’t they be representative? Are only rightwing political opinions representative/the default?

_The people I know who are,_


that's kinda my point tho. the people you and i know in their twenties aren't necessarily representative. there are a lot of young people with normal opinions. the shift left is def real but it's a shift. you can see that in those polls you show, too. you also just gave a stat showing that the average age of joe rogan listeners was 24

Why wouldn’t they be representative? Are only rightwing political opinions representative/the default?

because they're not a large random sample, they're just the people we know through circumstance and social connections; that's a highly selected group, whether intentional or not. in my case it's partly intentional, i have basically zero right wing social acquaintances. i can't speak for you but the people i know are extremely unrepresentative in many ways. i have lived for the last decade in some of the most left-wing neighborhoods in my country, met a lot of people through arts and music scenes, etc.

And 71% male which tied in with my point about young men tending to be more right wing because of resentment politics. Did you miss that part?

the original point i was responding to wasn't restricted to either gender, but imho the point holds for women too. young women are more left wing on average now than in the past, but that shift didn't come about through an increase in the number of women who are far-left and a decrease in the number of young women who are centre-left. rather, both the number of young women who are centre-left and the number of young women who are far-left increased. therefore, there are more young women who are receptive to center-left ideas increased, due to the shift left

You have to stop saying “the shift left” if you’re not going to address the fact why young people are voting left in the first place: because the things most important to young people as a cohort are largely addressed by left wing parties, and that is true in the UK as it is in my native Ireland. (And the gender differential there was pretty apparent during the referendum too.)

As it happens, I live in a pretty right wing area, and I work with a mixture of people from various backgrounds, with a mix of qualifications and who have entered the workforce directly from school. But mainly you can tell about how people feel about politics by how they vote, which is a much more reliable indicator than anecdotal knowledge. The reason I cited this is because from talking to people, even people I know who don’t vote or who are not political in any way have real daily concerns because they are affected by high housing costs and the lack of opportunities, it’s not ideology so much as material circumstances.

http://www.electionanalysis.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Henn_and_Sloam_figure_2.png

This too is educational: young voters placed much higher importance on social and environmental issues than older voters and voted accordingly.

As for women, as someone who was pretty centre-left in her mid twenties (to the point of voting Lib Dem in 2010, UGH) and who has now moved left from that, I stopped voting for the centre left because they had nothing to say to me and they were engaging in policies that were anathema to me and my values. I won’t be voting again next chance I get for much the same reason.

Are you each talking about your respective countries of residence? Could be one reason you're not connecting here, especially since you're also including the US. Tbh I'd be curious to see YouGov-type polls for Canada

It might be, but it might also be that flopson hasn’t provided any evidence for this opinion besides a feeling that it must be true. The trend of younger voters voting left is one that is seen across counties and different political cultures where the same conditions I mentioned upthread exist - wasn’t Bernie’s base younger voters?

aiui bernie's base was 'bros'

this is wild weve not seen anything like it

https://i.imgur.com/dVXFwup.png

its funny bernie is old, but on the other hand joe biden also old, warren and bloomberg old as well

that is a confusing graph

should be candidates in color with age buckets as the groups, not the other way round

or else it should be the share of each candidate's voters per bucket, not the like share of each age bucket that went to each candidate, when it's grouped like that

should be photos of the candidates standing in buckets

idk i kinda suspect the opposite is true; there's probably more young ppl receptive to center-left/normie liberal ideas than ever because of the shift to the left among young people. because (1) it's a shift and (2) the majority of people are around the center. so that large mass of young people who would have been on the center-right or center are now more likely to be in the center-left. you also have young people who were on the center-left who are now far-left, but i would guess it's approximately in proportion (they're over-represented on twitter obvs). joe rogan (who politically is sketchy inchoate-populist rather than lib but had both matt yglesias and elon musk on recently) has 200m downloads a month, pod save america has 1.5m, chapo trap house has 150k. in relative terms the far left did amazingly well, but partly that's because they started from such a low base

― flopson, Wednesday, April 28, 2021 6:11 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

idk about podcasts they seem lame but i will say whatever joe rogan is its definitely not a technocrat lol, but but even if there are more people in the middle, an assumption im not totally ready to believe after all there is the famous polarization, doesnt mean they have to be fans of the technocracy, technocracy was prob never that popular to begin with outside libs liking reasonableness, but also there could be a new centrist approach, i mean hillarys competent manager schtick really did not sell well, obama while being a total technocrat ran on hope and change, not sure what biden ran as

bernie the kids fave, not a technocrat

trump not too much of a technocrat lol

seem like were entering an era of more populism but who knows what tomorrow will bring

since I'm basically not following US national politics rn the only things I'm aware of are headlines that contain the words "Biden" and "trillion" and I'm like hell yeah

except for when it's "Biden" and "trillion" and "defense" then I'm like hell nah

joe biden is also denying people covid vaccine in order to protect patent monopolies

hell nah

watch them work

momentum against vaccine inequality, like all social outrages, is being channeled away from actually useful things like freeing patents and materials from the grip of US corporations into dopey Gates-funded celebrity "charity" framework. https://t.co/uLzIA8G3LR

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) April 28, 2021

one can think of pharmaceutical patents as a kind of debt that sucks demand out of the economy, enriches the 1%, adds to everyone’s crippling health insurance bills and oh yeah is currently killing tens of thousands of people lol

patents in general are one of the prime mechanisms of entrenched wealth

and somehow still a more reasonable system than copyrights, we’re lucky Disney doesn’t develop pharmaceuticals

idk about podcasts they seem lame but i will say whatever joe rogan is its definitely not a technocrat lol, but but even if there are more people in the middle, an assumption im not totally ready to believe after all there is the famous polarization, doesnt mean they have to be fans of the technocracy, technocracy was prob never that popular to begin with outside libs liking reasonableness, but also there could be a new centrist approach, i mean hillarys competent manager schtick really did not sell well, obama while being a total technocrat ran on hope and change, not sure what biden ran as

― lag∞n, Wednesday, April 28, 2021 10:58 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

ya it could be that it's polarization and there are also more far-right young people more far-left young people and less in the centre/centre-left. i'm not sure. i think some polarization happened in relative terms but not enough to shift it in absolute numbers

i don't think podcasts are a great metric either my point was just that normies vastly outweigh the type of left wing young people i know irl or that we follow on twitter, and even though young people are a lot more left wing on average that includes a shift among ppl like rogen bros to the left at the margin. like your poll is of young people who vote in dem primaries. imho in the country at large there are multiple changes happening (1) more young people vote for democrats (2) among the ones who vote democrat, a larger share of them are further left. all im saying is when you take both those into account, there are still a lot of young people (prob more than ever in absolute numbers) on the centre and centre-left

in terms of a certain technocratic style of politician typified by obama, buttigieg, hillary i agree that's out of style among young people broadly (especially mayor pete lol). however i could see that evolving, for example andrew yang undeniably has technocratic elements and he seems to have some cachet among young people. but also there's a difference between politicians style and policies. like obama and biden are p similar on policies, but biden is not "presenting" as technocratically as obama did. also i feel like there's some uncertainty in how things will shake out post-bernie, since he's such a unique figure who was able to draw a lot of people with idiosyncratic politics into the left

tbh i was thinking more of the market for centre left political media than about politicians. politician preference can mask the finer variations im thinking of, like a young person could vote bernie but read vox dot com

You have to stop saying “the shift left” if you’re not going to address the fact why young people are voting left in the first place: because the things most important to young people as a cohort are largely addressed by left wing parties, and that is true in the UK as it is in my native Ireland. (And the gender differential there was pretty apparent during the referendum too.)

As it happens, I live in a pretty right wing area, and I work with a mixture of people from various backgrounds, with a mix of qualifications and who have entered the workforce directly from school. But mainly you can tell about how people feel about politics by how they vote, which is a much more reliable indicator than anecdotal knowledge. The reason I cited this is because from talking to people, even people I know who don’t vote or who are not political in any way have real daily concerns because they are affected by high housing costs and the lack of opportunities, it’s not ideology so much as material circumstances.

This too is educational: young voters placed much higher importance on social and environmental issues than older voters and voted accordingly.

As for women, as someone who was pretty centre-left in her mid twenties (to the point of voting Lib Dem in 2010, UGH) and who has now moved left from that, I stopped voting for the centre left because they had nothing to say to me and they were engaging in policies that were anathema to me and my values. I won’t be voting again next chance I get for much the same reason.

― Scamp Granada (gyac), Wednesday, April 28, 2021 7:33 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

i didn't take a stand in my post on the cause of why more young people vote left, i was just taking it as a given and thinking about its consequences. i think it's complex and has many causes but for sure the reasons you give are a huge part of it (although sadly i don't know anything about ireland). tbh i don't disagree with anything you're saying, feel like there was a misunderstanding maybe. i've always voted for the left wing party here but that's in part bc i live in ridings where it's "safe" to do so (in the sense of not having to do strategic voting for the center-left party)

gates update

Bill Gates hoped Jeffrey Epstein would help him land the Nobel Prize, "which is what Bill wants more than anything else in the world,” ex-foundation staffer tells us. With @LachCartwright https://t.co/SAwuMyqgfd via @thedailybeast

— kate briquelet (@kbriquelet) May 18, 2021

man who would have ever guessed that the quickest way to a Nobel prize AND sex trafficked teenaged girls was through one weird guy from Coney Island

what i want to know is why gates thought epstein was his ticket to a nobel

Dumb guy probably

Ezra Klein vs Matt Yglesias vs Jeffrey Epstein

seem like it but still there must be some reason, which tbh could be as simple as epstein telling him he could xp

if bill gates wants a nobel prize why doesn't he just ask to buy one from an actual winner for the low low price of $5 bil or so

btw lol at bills entire deal with philanthropy being trying to get a medal, our lords are deranged, which is why we must relieve them of their estates

also lol at melinda just assassinating him via the news media, incredible

wonder if she trying to remove him from the foundation

Imagine how much he regrets not just getting divorced 15 years ago or w/e

“Paul doesn’t have to put up with this shit he’s dead”

imagine how much he regrets not getting a prenup

Shoulda bought a basketball team like his buddies

he was already the second richest person in the world when they were married

Again, dumb guy

my own dumb guess is that prominent members of the Committee just have a taste for underage girls, too, and ol Jeffy was a prime dude to have in the Rolodex

is epsteins blackmail scam just common knowledge in oligarch circles, is he telling bill hes got some of these guys in his pocket and bill just knows what hes talking about, does bill just think epsteins got normal connections, is bill just making all sorts of stuff up in his head cause epstein seems well connected, last one seems unlikely cause like isnt gates himself insanely well connected

i think epstein had to have been overtly gassing him up about the award but who knows what he was saying and what bill believed to be true

erza got the intellect of a local tv news anchor

Violent crime is spiking. Homicides in cities were up by 25-40 percent in 2020, the largest single-year increase since 1960. And 2021 isn’t looking any better.

This is a crisis on its own terms. But it’s also a crisis for the broader liberal project in two downstream ways.

— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) May 21, 2021