Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

The 7 day average for new cases definitely seems to have hit a sort of point where it just fluctuates between 14,000 and 15,000.

Yes that's what's bugging me.

Reporting on Memorial Day weekend stopped, and several states (like uh mine) have stopped daily reporting.

it may be plateauing or seeing a temporary rise, but really it's only gone back up in the last couple days after going steadily downward since mid April, so pretty hard to make any call on it at this point.

Maybe I'm a little unclear about how the reporting works, but if states have stopped daily reporting and the numbers are holding steady, isn't that kind of worse news? I mean, the cases are holding steady even without some states reporting their new cases, would that imply even more cases?

Well while we're irrationally venting, just saying that steady improvement followed by plateau would be exactly what you'd expect to see if the level of vaccine-induced immunity were plenty high enough to handle OG COVID but not enough to prevent resurgence of the more transmissible delta-variant, which is now at 6% of US infections and is only going to go up.

But you're right, the plateau is pretty short-duration so far and could easily have to do with reporting hiccups so who knows. Just keep encouraging and easing vaccination is all I'm saying.

True and, I mean, compared to anywhere we've been since March 2020, even 14,000 cases per day plateau is a marked improvement.

Memorial Day fucked the stats. Something like 5,000 cases reported that day as several states didn't report, and there were already several states who report much less/not at all on weekends, so the 7-day average dipped unnaturally low.

Likewise, one could surmise testing availability was much less on Memorial Day and that people weren't spending their holiday getting tested, so numbers stayed lower than normal for another day or so before they returned to normal.

Those artificially low days are now no longer in the 7 day average, so the average "jumped", but it's like the average was artificially low to begin with. I actually predicted that'd happen itt before Memorial Day!

The two week decreases in cases rose from like 35% to like 46%, which was a definite clue - case average rapidly went from like 21,000 to 17,000 over a matter of a few days which isn't normal.

I'd wager the numbers are closer to "correct" now this week (sans FL), but last week's were so low it makes for a poor comparison. Too soon by far to indicate any plateau. I'd give it until like next Monday to get a more accurate read.

Media mostly had done a good job of acknowledging this, but there's a stupid panhandle paper that reported an alarming 137% spike in FL cases as a headline, indicated the decline was over, and inexplicably in the next sentence acknowledged that week to week comparisons weren't accurate because of Memorial Day

Was just browsing Twitter and saw a post about Jeff Garlin on ESPN radio today, getting a little worked up about MLB players that are refusing vaccination. Probably should have expected it, but I'd say 90% of the replies were rabidly anti vaccination. It's sad on so many levels, not least because the type of person to respond to a tweet about sports is exactly the person most likely to be filling the seats in these stadiums now that capacity limits are being removed.

It's depressing as fuck, not just for COVID, but to think that this will be what we go through for every other newly developed vaccine moving forward.

by 2071, there will be 70 people left in the world.

Also jfc at how many of these "vaCCINATiON IS A peRsoNAl CHOice, YOu can'T foRce me" people are also rabidly fucking pro-life.

50% of most developed countries with a growing fascist undercurrent can have their politics simply boiled down to "don't tell ME what to fuckin' do"

Also get the fuck out of here with these "well, if you're vaccinated you have nothing to worry about so don't tell me what to do". Except, fucking no, it's not that easy.

And I realize I'm not posting anything new or particularly insightful here, but this is just really getting under my skin today when coupled with the slowing vax numbers.

Starting to really feel lately like the human race doesn't make it another hundred years as a viable species. Largely because a sizable % of the population so desperately yearns for that result.

no it's because we will be ruled by Aquaman

'ruled by a Q man' I believe u mean

Lololol

a sizable % of the population so desperately yearns for that result

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMKSwcZNpd8

Texas appears to be one of the main culprits in the (probably unnatural) plateau/"increase" in cases.

Texas has had data anomalies on back to back days, reporting over 13,000 new cases on Wednesday/Thursday (their usual 7-day average had been 1,500). Our World in Data usually handles these anomalies by spreading the backlogged cases over several days in their data which causes their 7-day average to be less affected by severe data anomalies (but on the flipside, it means they alter past data after the fact, so previous 7-day averages sometimes change after they're published, which...isn't great).

NYT on the other hand just uses the data as reported and labels it a data anomaly. so yesterday, it appeared there was a severe spike up to 22,000 new cases, and the 7-day average went up, but they labeled both days a data anomaly for Texas. Our World in Data, on the other hand, shows the 7-day average continuing to decline, and only reported 14,000-ish cases.

that plus Florida only releasing data once a week is making data hella difficult to analyze atm. I suspect Texas probably released a glut of Memorial Day-ish cases.

Some people ITT really desperate to find bad news

Was just browsing Twitter and saw a post about Jeff Garlin on ESPN radio today, getting a little worked up about MLB players that are refusing vaccination. Probably should have expected it, but I'd say 90% of the replies were rabidly anti vaccination. It's sad on so many levels, not least because the type of person to respond to a tweet about sports is exactly the person most likely to be filling the seats in these stadiums now that capacity limits are being removed.

It's depressing as fuck, not just for COVID, but to think that this will be what we go through for every other newly developed vaccine moving forward.

― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, June 9, 2021 3:47 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

what makes me extra infuriated are people abroad suffering and dying and how 2021 will be worse in sum than 2020 and just the sheer gall, selfishness, plain boneheadedness in vaccine refusal, it boggles my mind. our reputation is completely deserved

Some people ITT really desperate to find bad news

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, June 10, 2021 10:15 AM bookmarkflaglink

great contribution

if that was at me, then i really don't know what thread you've been reading, cos I've been captain optimist for months

otm, it's so disheartening global.

I don't see folks looking for bad news, I see most people itt being cautiously optimistic but rightfully angry about how many damn refuseniks populate our country.

After 5 (acute) years of stressing myself out over their bullshit I'm pretty tired of giving them any of my energy or attention.

Sure, I get that impetus without a doubt. It's just harder to let the guard down when you still have someone unvaccinated in your household, so you do take the fluctuations a little more seriously and get a little more irate about the dumb holdouts.

Some people ITT really desperate to find bad news

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Thursday, June 10, 2021 10:15 AM bookmarkflaglink

you misunderstand me. i think it's good that cases are growing exponentially in the UK.

Fewer people at the pub!

i think the issue is vaccination isn't going that quickly for younger people and the variants going around. i got my first jab in canada - which had seemed a bit of a vaccine laggard - before most of my friends got theirs in the uk.

Biden now says 500 million doses of Pfizer are getting donated to struggling countries.

Some people ITT really desperate to find bad news

illustration from the CDC's website of how much 'backlog' data is still impacting the numbers: https://i.ibb.co/bHz234H/6-11-2021-8-10-16-AM.jpg

I don't believe the CDC includes historic cases in their average, so you'll see it's somewhat not impacted, but the New York Times and John Hopkins does.

second jab yesterday, ears ringing like a bastard.

second jab yesterday, ears ringing like a bastard.

Tried to eat oatmeal this morning and, yet again, damn spoon went immediately to my forehead.

On the plus side, I don't misplace my keys as often as I used to.

keys open doors
keys open doors

On the minus side, I think it will become much harder to outrun that spiky Phantasm orb now.

BOYYYYYYYYYYYY

So sick of whiny fucking babies about the masks. Illinois opens back up and one of my favorite record stores posted a thing about how they are going to be requiring masks inside for a little longer, a very reasonable request and a well worded, polite way to make it. Instantly comments like "but why... other stores made them optional", "this is super disappointing to see", "but the CDC says we don't need to".

Just, ugh, shut the fuck up. If you can't handle a mask for 20 minutes while you shop, just stay the fuck home and never leave it again.

there are some who treated the CDC guidelines as an edict, THOU SHALT NOT WEAR MASKS

Yesterday: first time being in an indoor environment (takeout restaurant with a line to order) where <10% of people were masked. Put mine on to go inside anyway, partially out of cussedness, I guess, didn't want to let the feeling of discomfort govern me.

at least he's still actively importing new cases and variants

― bobo honkin' slobo babe (sic), Saturday, May 15, 2021 5:32 PM (four weeks ago)

have we figured out whether this is a good idea yet

BREAKING: Delta variant cases jump 240% in one week in UK https://t.co/n6GaqCXrh5

— Evening Standard (@standardnews) June 11, 2021

Neanderthal can break down the data.

Breakdown: not good.

Yes the variant is more infectious, but it's circulating mostly around the non-vaccinated, and they're whinging about.... securing the border.

The blame for this lies with the Prime Minister and his reckless refusal to act on Labour’s repeated warnings to secure our borders against Covid and its variants.”

tbc my own position remains that more than one (1) international public health measure can be taken during a deadly pandemic

But fewer than one is also possible. And easier.

My point is they're scapegoating the border when all that did was let the variant in (probably before we knew it existed), the spread is largely exacerbated by similar vaccination stubbornness to our own Yankees.

Close the border all you want, the shit's going to be the prevalent strain anyway unless (like the US) you get the vaxx-hesitant off the sidelines.