Mostly Apolitical Thread for Discussing/Venting our Rational/Irrational COVID-19 Fears and Experiences in 2020

Wait, so more deaths were among those fully vaccinated than among those partly vaccinated? That seems odd. Does it detail which vaccines?

I mean, is it surprising that the virus, in any form, is spreading among those who are not vaxxed or not fully vaxxed?

how many ppl have died of the Delta variant in Australia?

― bobo honkin' slobo babe (sic), Saturday, June 12, 2021 3:37 PM (yesterday)

Looks like lots of additional discussion here:

I see people stressing about vaccination death data due to some unclear #scicomms on here...

So here it is: we know of 33,206 cases of Delta variant (28,917 with vax info)

1,785 were fully vaccinated and *still* got infected (6.2% of cases)

Of these 1,785, 12 died (0.7%)

— Meaghan Kall (@kallmemeg) June 11, 2021

Reportedly those 12 deaths among fully vaxxed most (all?) had co-morbidities, but that is pretty vague.

https://i.imgur.com/bMKoR50.jpg

damn if only everywhere else had the incredible vaccination rates of Australia!!!!!!!!!!!

Wait, so more deaths were among those fully vaccinated than among those partly vaccinated? That seems odd. Does it detail which vaccines?

Two possible reasons for this. Firstly, about 29.5 million people in Britain have had both vaccine doses, compared to 10.8 million who have only had the first dose so far, so there are three times more people in that group. Secondly, virtually everyone in the 'only one dose so far' group will be aged 25-45, whereas the 'both doses' group will contain the vast majority of the most vulnerable/elderly part of the population.

In the interest of my sanity I've deleted the Tweet again & sticking with 12/1,785 (0.7%) based on this data

But I WILL say there's a compound effect of vaccination against infection AND dying which means risk of getting infected with Delta & dying is much, much less than 0.7%

— Meaghan Kall (@kallmemeg) June 11, 2021

this is no way is a refutation on the idea that the Delta variant is a legitimate cause for concern, just additional context (as well as other tweets in the thread). though there is plenty of vaccine hesitance in the UK, it's not like the US's hesitancy problem, where you CAN literally easily get two shots here in the recommended time, and millions of people are "FUCK YOU, I WON'T DO WHAT YOU TELL ME" anyway. and I do think the one dose and *wait* strategy was necessary in the UK at the time and did lead to a significant drop in cases. unfortunately, variants like Delta can wreck plans that had previously worked.

being fully vaccinated, will most likely protect you against the variant, but I think the key difference here is that with the original strains of disease, even one shot did a good job of protecting you, whereas here, your protection is far less after just one shot and it's not exactly 'rare' if you get infected after just one shot.

I wasn't paying close enough attention when the greek alphabet names for covid-19 variants were adopted. My impression is that what is now officially named Delta used to be unofficially termed the 'India' variant, as opposed to the 'UK' or Brazil' or 'California' variants. Is that correct?

Yeah, Delta is the Indian variant and, I think, Alpha the Kent (UK) one

ty

unfortunately, variants like Delta can wreck plans that had previously worked.

exposing the population to new variants has fairly consistently led to infection with those variants, whether the plan has been "let the virus rip through the population / let the bodies pile high by their thousands" or "it'll be gone by Easter"

Delta variant is now over 6% of cases in the US, or about 0.002% of the population infected, and 48% vaxxed. Australia has 0.000007% of their population infected with the Delta variant, and 4% of the population vaccinated.

Close the border all you want, the shit's going to be the prevalent strain anyway

what if you'd given me permission in March tho

I'm not sure what we're arguing -- that the Delta variant is dangerous to non-jabbed people?

sic is arguing that the USA should’ve closed its borders in March of 2020 through now iirc

this thread is about right afaict

Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 453

1/ I know everybody’s sick of playing 3-dimensional Covid chess. Sorry, but the Delta variant forces us back to the chess board. Ergo, this 🧵.
If you’re fully vaxxed, I wouldn’t be too worried, especially if you’re in a highly vaxxed region.

— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) June 13, 2021

Yeah Wachter's good And that's about right

that the Delta variant is dangerous to non-jabbed people?

is 0.002 smaller than 0.000007, or is it 260,000% larger?

(my argument is that smaller numbers are better)

Since the carrots aren't working, maybe it's time for the fucking stick with refuseniks. I don't know what that looks like, open to suggestions, but I'm tired of them controlling the narrative and, worse, the evolution of this pandemic.

idiots at MarketWatch starting a panic by pointing out the sharp increase in cases/deaths between Thursday and Friday, and making no mention of the fact that the only reason for this is because Florida is reporting their data once per week.

cases do appear to either no longer be falling or are merely plateauing now, probably due to Delta, though really Friday is going to be the new 'comparison point' week to week due to Florida.

should notice it wasn't just a confusing context-less piece, they freaked out saying cases were now at "two week highs". *stewing*

Since the carrots aren't working, maybe it's time for the fucking stick with refuseniks. I don't know what that looks like, open to suggestions, but I'm tired of them controlling the narrative and, worse, the evolution of this pandemic.

― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, June 14, 2021 9:45 AM bookmarkflaglink

I mean it depends I guess if you're willing to go to jail or not, because my experience is there is nothing that will convince these dudes other than giving them Phineas Gage-level brain damage

Since the carrots aren't working, maybe it's time for the fucking stick with refuseniks.

A "refusenik" is someone who is refused something, not someone who refuses something, and I will die on this hill

Alright, whatever, I think the point of that post still stands.

As discussed on one of the threads we didn’t really do carrots. Entering to win a lotto in a handful of states is less effective than the feds handing you $1000 in crisp hundos when you get the jab.

idiots at MarketWatch starting a panic by pointing out the sharp increase in cases/deaths between Thursday and Friday, and making no mention of the fact that the only reason for this is because Florida is reporting their data once per week.

lol I posted three comments adding this context and they removed all three, citing "community guidelines". fuck em

xpost that'd be nice but there's no way Manchin, Sinema, or the GOP goons woulda let that fly. obviously that would be the easiest way to get people to do it, though you'd still have some KEEP YOUR HANDOUTS, I WILL NOT DO WHAT YOU TELL ME jerkoffs. but we'd probably hit 75% with that kinda incentive

I hate this fucking country

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/crime/officer-involved-shooting-in-dekalb-county/85-b0686afb-13dd-4b73-b6a0-2bf97468ed8e

Finally got word of the 2nd AZ jab so will be fully vaccine later this week.
Just in time to know that people who got jabbed after me are likely to get their interval down by a month.
Still not quite getting what the deal is.is this 12 weeks gap thing remotely efficacious. I thought main cause for delay was they got the first dose out as widely as possible then could delay the 2nd until everyone got that. But not sure they actually needed to wait so long since other people got other vaccines through GPs. Original release said efficacious dose was about a month interval.
So would have liked to get this over and done with a while back.
Or get the Johnson one which has been out for a while here. So wouldn't need a 2nd dose.

Oh yeah heard that Cuba has a syringe shortage. Caught a bit of a talk on sanctions and medical consequences a couple of days ago.
So despite having 4 vaccines they have nearly perfected they can't administer them.
Did wonder if this might lead to development of some other delivery system. Fauci was hoping for edibles last year.

The highly infectious Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of Covid-19 that first surfaced in India is feared to have mutated into a more virulent version called AY.1 or Delta Plus — one that is possibly capable of resisting even the monoclonal antibodies cocktail currently being prescribed as a cure.

is this good

why not? Are cocktails bad?

pre-dosing with a mai tai rn

cases in the US have stopped dropping (basically haven’t moved for 2 weeks) at 20x the rate per population of Israel’s. oof.

more on that: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/here-are-the-states-where-covid-19-is-increasing-2#block-7560b4e1-bf82-4661-a1f2-4efa99fc9604

not shockingly, increases being seen in less vaccinated states, but it's in too many states to merely attribute to vaccination. arrival and spread of Delta variant probably has a lot to do with it.

Vaccinations at something like 1.17 mill/day, so who knows what % of people will eventually wind up vaccinated, but there's no massive increase coming unless they give everybody 10k to get a shot. it's going to be far short of 70% of all Americans though (though we'll likely get to 70% of adults).

sigh.

fundamentally fucking stupid country where modern miracle occurs to obtain not one but several high quality vaccines and a third of the nation views being unvaccinated as a badge of honor while the rest of the world begs for them.

meanwhile, this doesn't entirely jibe with John Hopkins/NYT, but....I think the CDC excludes 'historical' cases from their averages, whereas the other sites do not. And there were something like 8,000 - 9,000 historical cases reported the week of Memorial Day, a non-negligible number.

oh for consistent numbers

#COVID19 cases are continuing to decrease in most parts of the United States.

The 7-day average of daily new cases is 12,192, down 15.8% from the previous week. Get vaccinated as soon as you can. More data: https://t.co/gp6X4zBMdj. pic.twitter.com/golUw7SOJQ

— CDC (@CDCgov) June 16, 2021

to what degree is Florida's stupid decision to move to weekly updates affecting context here?

It makes data more difficult to interpret, but I ultimately don't think it's distorting anything anymore, now that we have one Friday of reporting in. If cases were still tailing off like they were prior to Memorial Day, I would have expected totals on Saturday through Thursday to be lower than they are now, with a one-day data anomaly every Friday.

Our World in Data appears to be forecasting daily FL cases so they can get to a better approximation of our daily cases, and they're using realistic numbers, and the cases appear to still be declining a little bit, but at a very slow rate as opposed to the fast rate of decline in previous weeks.

idk - i'll defer to caek on this shit as I'm tapped out parsing the data since Memorial DAy.

2.03 million vaccinations reported today, largest total since May 22nd. vaccinations were ticking back up slightly this week after a disastrously low week, not sure how 'real' a phenomenon that is, but more please.

We are officially Maskless in Gaza over here, but some are still exercising caution, I saw from my recent trip to the store.

It's all over the place wherever I go. I was just in St. Louis for a day, and there were plenty of masked staff/unmasked clientele situations. One place had a sign that said "if a staff member is unmasked, that means they are vaccinated," which is helpful, I guess, but leads to a paranoid paradox. That is, I've seen a lot of signs that currently read "masks are highly recommended for unvaxxed," or something similar. Then I go in and there are mostly masked people, or at least a huge number. So when I see them I immediately think, hmm, I wonder if that means they are unvaxxed? And when they see me, maybe they think, huh, he must be one of those anti-mask, anti-vax crazies. And yet, where I am, most likely most people are vaxxed, masked and unmasked alike. We just have to let our confidence and comfort levels grow a little I suppose.

Some stores I think have forgotten what signs they even have posted. Picked up from a local falafel shop, and there was a sign out front that basically said "no mask, no service." Inside, the customers had masks, the guy behind the counter had a mask below his nose, and the two guys in back (like, a foot behind him, in the open little kitchen) had no mask.

Yes, exactly.

I just wear a mask anytime I go inside any public building. Seems to be doing the job of tamping down the COVID-related anxieties you detail. It helps that we are now a full seven days in our city with ZERO new cases. But the mask stays on for the time being and to hell with whatever anybody else thinks or does.

Florida's week-long total less than the previous week but only by like 1,000 (10,629 reported for 6/11 - 6/17). about 100 less cases per day or so.

Guess NYT is doing the OWID thing of spreading the FL cases over the week?

Their count has cases dipping below 12,000 a day for the first time. Deaths about to dip below 300/day

Fun fact: in the year between April 12, 2009, and April 10, 2010, the CDC estimates swine flu epidemic caused 12,469 deaths in the U.S. At 300 deaths per day it would take just six weeks to exceed that total. Yet, after 15 months of raging Covid-19, 300/day dead people looks like rainbows and unicorns.

also COVID isn't real and is just the flu

vaccines will kill you and hurt your immune system, and democrats created the virus

I wonder, if they did a poll, what percentage of Americans would happily take a serum that gave them magnetic powers? I bet it'd be something north of 80%. And here we have a vaccine that not only gives you magnetic powers, it stops you from getting covid, too, and all these people are all, no, this is where we draw the line!

And who doesn't want free 5G

Handshakes seem to have come back, quickly, and i dont rly care for it!

handshakes have always sucked